Happy New Year! With the 2020 fantasy football season in the books for most leagues, it is time to look back one last time at the league target leaders. The top ten of the target leaderboard is full of awesome players, but after that, things get a lot more interesting. A lot of the names on this list are free agents after the season, so we could see some drastic shifts in fantasy value in the offseason.
Curtis Samuel just barely cracked the target leaderboard for the season, with 84 targets in 14 games. He is a free agent, and if he leaves, I think Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore will climb draft boards. Anderson and Moore already were 10th and 25th respectively in targets, and I’m not sure they would get that many more targets even if Samuel moves on. Moore has 107 targets through 14 games after getting 135 targets in 15 games in 2019. At this point, I think we can pencil him in for 1,100 receiving yards and a handful of touchdowns almost no matter who he has around him. I would be concerned about Samuel if he goes elsewhere, because this coaching staff made a concerted effort to get him the ball in favorable situations. Even if he winds up on a team with less depth chart competition, I wouldn’t count on a repeat of 2021.
T.Y. Hilton had one more target, two more receiving yards and one more touchdown than Curtis Samuel . Samuel was much better for fantasy because of his rushing as well as catching 17 more passes than Hilton. I think Hilton is probably done as a regular fantasy starter, though getting away from Philip Rivers probably wouldn’t hurt. If Hilton does move on, I probably will not be able to resist the Parris Campbell hype. I would like his chances of at least matching Hilton’s production from this season.
Predicting what the fantasy football community will think of a player eight months from now can be a fool’s errand, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we collectively give up on Tua Tagovailova and, by extension, DeVante Parker . Parker’s 2020 numbers look awfully similar to 2016 and 2017, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to dismiss 2019 as a Fitzmagic-induced fever dream. I could definitely see Parker get back to his 2019 numbers with better health and better play from Tua, and while I don’t want to assume either of those things will happen, I think he could have a lot of upside that won’t be reflected in Parker’s draft-day price.
Hunter Henry is a free agent, coming off a season in which he set career highs in targets and receptions and career lows in yards per reception and touchdowns, barring a crazy Week 17. I think the best thing for Henry’s fantasy value would be to stay with Justin Herbert, but I think he’s a good enough player that he’ll be a solid fantasy starter no matter where he ends up.
Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb are next to each other on the target leaderboard, and the contrast is stark. I have seen a lot of excuses made for Jeudy, including the absence of Courtland Sutton , and he could certainly settle in as a good WR2 in Denver for the next several years. That being said, Jeudy was drafted ahead of Lamb in April, and that seems crazy now. I think a lot of people will assume Jeudy will take a step forward in 2021, and I’m not willing to make that assumption. I am (as of right now) willing to assume Lamb’s numbers improve drastically in 2021 with Dak Prescott back, though I doubt I am alone in that feeling.
JuJu Smith-Schuster finished 16th in targets. Amongst the 50 players with at least 83 targets, JuJu was 48th with 5.97 average depth of target. The only players who were worse were running backs. JuJu is basically a bigger Jamison Crowder , and while that can be useful when he has a quarterback who can’t throw downfield or when he’s the only good receiver on the team, I don’t think that’s the kind of player you want to count on for fantasy. I suspect I will have JuJu ranked well below current teammates Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, though that could change depending on where Smith-Schuster ends up and who the quarterback is in Pittsburgh.
Speaking of Johnson, I may have made this point before, but I think it bears repeating: I think the drops are overrated. Johnson has 14 drops this season, which is one more than Michael Gallup had last year. I didn’t see Gallup’s draft price fall as a result of those drops. Gallup is down to six drops this season, albeit on 21 fewer targets. I think Johnson is too good for the drops to affect his playing time or targets, assuming they are still a problem next season. That is especially true if JuJu Smith-Schuster is on another team.
Brandin Cooks topped 100 targets for the season last week, and he will almost certainly top 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth time in six seasons. He was certainly more consistent after Will Fuller was suspended, but I still think Cooks is a very good receiver when healthy. I think at worst he is a solid WR3, and if Houston gets a better offensive coach, I think he could easily return to the days of being an every-week fantasy starter. After all, Cooks will only be 28 years old next season.
I think Tyler Lockett will be one of the most interesting receivers to rank for fantasy next season. He is 13th in the league in targets and 11th in receptions, but nearly half of his fantasy production came in two weeks. His target and reception totals are already career-highs, and he needs 94 receiving yards to top his career high in that stat, which he set last season. Lockett is too inconsistent from game to game to feel great about his as a WR2, but he’s 13th in fantasy points among wide receivers, and I think he could be underrated in fantasy drafts while fantasy players try to chase WR1 upside.
I think the most surprising part of the target leaderboard may be Calvin Ridley leading the way with an ADoT of 18.98. The next-highest players are Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Chark , A.J. Green , D.K. Metcalf and Darius Slay ton. Ridley and Metcalf are the only players on that list with a catch rate over 60 percent. That list makes me feel a bit better about Jeudy; maybe he really just needs someone else who is a downfield threat so he can work the middle of the field. My point, before I digressed, is that I finally believe in Calvin Ridley . I’m still not convinced Russell Gage is good, but he probably doesn’t need to be if Julio Jones is gone. Before we get too excited about Gage, however, let’s just remember he has seven drops and three touchdowns on the season.