The Seattle Seahawks shocked the world in 2022 when they traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Then they shocked them again when they not only performed better than the Broncos but they actually made the playoffs on the back of 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith. They should be ready to compete once again in 2023 so the question boils down to who will be under center. Do they bring back Smith to ride again or are they going to write him off like everyone else did and chase after the likes of Aaron Rodgers? We will see!
With this series, we are taking a look at each NFL team to gauge the direction of the offense from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Is this team gearing up for a Super Bowl run? Are they in the midst of a rebuild? Are they considering blowing it up? We’ll take all of that into account as well as the current contracts, upcoming free agents, and 2023 NFL draft class to give you our best recommendations on how to handle these weapons in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.
BUY - Attempt to acquire this player at or slightly above market value
HOLD - The player is likely more valuable than the market indicates. Hold them if you have them or try to acquire them at a discount.
SELL - The perceived value for this player is higher than the projected remaining value in your average dynasty league. Cash out now.
SELL/DROP - Depending on the depth of the league, always try to sell guys before dropping. But this player is likely not worth the bench spot he’s occupying so you might need to just drop them.
*Contract information is proved courtesy of Spotrac.com*
Seattle Seahawks Quarterbacks
The Seahawks do not have a quarterback under contract for 2023
Free Agency/Draft Outlook
The plan with this series is to look at all players under contract for each team and then do a separate “best free agents available” writeup closer to the start of free agency for each position. Well, the Seahawks technically don’t have any quarterbacks under contract so that kind of throws a wrench in things. We’ll do a full write-up on Geno Smith when the Quarterback Free Agent article comes around but you absolutely want to hold onto him as he will be a starting quarterback this year - either for the Seahawks or elsewhere. It’s wise for Seattle to explore all options whether that be a trade for Aaron Rodgers or signing a guy like Lamar Jackson if he doesn’t get franchise tagged. But my feelings are that the Comeback Player of the Year will comeback to Seattle.
Seattle Seahawks Running Backs
The Seahawks have two running backs under contract.
Kenneth Walker - Age 22
Contract: Kenneth Walker was a second round pick in 2022, meaning he’s under contract through 2025.
Outlook: The story for Walker reminds me of the Colts' Jonathan Taylor as a prospect. They said he was a beast on the ground but that he wasn’t a game-changer in the pass game. And the results are seemingly the same for both. They are so good in the run game that it doesn’t really matter. Walker even contributed some in the pass game with 27 receptions for 165 yards.
Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - I’m not going crazy acquiring Walker but that’s mainly because his price is sky-high right now. Some sites like PlayerProfiler legitimately have him as the dynasty RB1 overall and KeepTradeCut has him at RB3. You absolutely have to be pumped if you have him but I’m not quite willing to pay the price for him because I’m not really sure he’s going to be a guy that can catch 50+ balls a year, let alone the 70-80 we see from some of the most versatile backs. Shane Barrett proved mathematically that, even in standard formats, targets are worth 1.36 times as much as carries and, in PPR, that’s as high as 2.74 times. I’m not willing to pay dyno RB1 overall prices for him until I know for sure that he’s RB1 overall capable. This year in PPR, he was RB18 in total points and RB17 in points per game.
DeeJay Dallas - Age 24
Contract: DeeJay Dallas is on the last year of his deal. He can be released for $1 mil in savings with only ~$125K in dead cap.
Outlook: Dallas is a valuable real life player because he can return both kicks and punts while serving as the emergency running back. But he’s had limited relevancy in fantasy, even when guys suffer injuries.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - The upside for him is that he carves out a role as a third-down back in this offense this year but would that really be a guy you actually plug into a lineup in a dynasty league? He’s just not going to split anywhere near 50/50 with Walker even if that’s the case. He probably doesn’t have much value so you can likely just drop him but always put him on the block first.
Free Agency/Draft Outlook
This team has their starter in Kenneth Walker. And they have a capable back in DeeJay Dallas, though technically he could be released fairly easily if they find another return man. Rashaad Penny is not coming back and the return of any of the other players wouldn’t matter much. The Seahawks need to fill out that running back room so, if you are rooting for Walker, you are rooting against anyone who could be used on pass downs. We want them to bring in guys that are pure backups so they can just let Walker be the every-down guy. They aren’t going to pay up for top names obviously but guys like Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, Jerick McKinnon etc. would represent an annoyance as they are pass-down specialists. Even worse than an annoyance like a 30 year old Jerick McKinnon would be for them to draft a young pass catching back like a Jahmyr Gibbs…
Seattle Seahawks Wide Receivers
The Seahawks have five wide receivers under contract for 2023 with two signed to reserve/future deals.
DK Metcalf - Age 25
Contract: Metcalf signed a three-year extension so he’s under contract through 2025. It’s unrealistic for him to be released until at least 2025 and even then he would carry an $11.5 million dead cap.
Outlook: Metcalf slid initially in the NFL draft because he was a raw talent that could really only play split end; you weren’t getting any special teams work out of him which made him incredibly high-risk, high-reward. Well, they hit with the reward side as he’s developed into one of the league’s premier wide receivers.
Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Metcalf is locked in as the starting split end playing a massive snap share and his targets in the first four years have been 100, 129, 129, and 141. He has a solid aDOT, good yards per route run, high contested catch percentage, etc. The two things we’d like to see improvement on are a higher catch rate and higher YAC. Those are the areas that separate him from the guys like CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown. It’s why he was a WR2 in fantasy this year instead of a WR1. Metcalf is just hitting the age apex for wide receivers now, so I’d see if you can get him as he enters his real prime. If he improves at one or both of those categories, he could be THE WR1.
Oh and here's my favorite DK Metcalf stat that I saved for last: in 2022 he had 22 targets in the end zone which led the entire league. The only wide recievers to see 14+ end zone targets two years in a row are Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf. Only one player has seen 14+ end zone targets three years in a row. DK Metcalf. In fact, he's actually seen 14+ end zone targets in all four of his seasons. Go get him.
Tyler Lockett - Age 30
Contract: Tyler Lockett signed a four-year extension that keeps him under contract through 2025.
Outlook: Lockett is about as consistent as they come. He’s been a lock for 100+ targets, 1,000+ yards, and 8+ TDs in four straight years now.
Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - A lot of fantasy gamers will be scared of that 30 next to his name which presents a buy opportunity if you are competing now (if your team isn’t good and you are blowing it up you should sell 30-year-old WRs but I don’t need to tell you that). His contract realistically puts him at an incredibly low risk to be released or traded over the next two years at least and he should be right across from DK Metcalf at flanker for both those seasons. This is one of the toughest guys out there who has missed three games in his eight seasons. That is insane. Think about that; including the playoffs, he’s played 134 games and missed three. For what it’s worth, he also seems like an incredibly stand-up dude who acts as a real estate agent to help his teammates buy homes and is faithful enough to save himself for marriage. Does that affect his dynasty value? Not sure. But we know the guy has perseverance and he generally stays out of trouble which is a good thing. I don’t think I need to list all the guys who have had their careers shortened due to character issues but there is a reason a guy like Antonio Brown went off the rails at age 30 and it’s not because he wasn’t good at football anymore.
D’Wayne Eskridge - Age 25
Contract: Dee Eskridge was drafted in the second round in 2021
Outlook: Eskridge was an older prospect coming out so it really doesn’t help that he couldn’t carve out a role right away as a rookie then broke his hand in 2022. He only has 17 catches for 122 yards in his career.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - If you can sell him great. But you might have to just drop. The dynasty community wasn’t super hot on him coming out and he’s been a bust so far. The upside for him is to carve out a role in the slot then hopefully become a full-time flanker but, by the time Lockett is gone, Eskridge will also be an unrestricted free agent.
Dareke Young - Age 23
Contract: Dareke Young was drafted in the seventh round in 2022 so he’s under contract through 2025.
Outlook: Young was actually a rock-solid special teams player but got limited snaps on offense.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Unless your team has some kind of points for tackles on special teams, you don’t need to hold Young. He could battle for WR3 snaps but the WR3 role in this offense is not really relevant because of how many two TE sets they use.
Free Agency/Draft Outlook
We mentioned it above but Pete Carroll has really liked his two tight-end sets in recent years. So that really only leaves Metcalf and Lockett as the full-time wide receivers. They would really need to commit to three-WR sets for a slot WR here to have any sort of fantasy relevance given how locked-in the top two guys are and, as we will discuss below, the tight ends are kind of locked in so hard to imagine they go away from the TEs. So the reality is they probably just fill the roster out with depth pieces, maybe bring Goodwin back. He’s coming off a significant injury and he’s 32, so they can probably get him for near the veteran minimum if he doesn’t retire.
As for Lockett and Metcalf, we will continue to buy them as I said above. Since DK Metcalf has come into the league, Tyler Lockett has outperformed his PPR ADP every single time. Metcalf has outperformed his ADP three of four years (the exception being 2021 when he was drafted at WR6 and finished as WR14).
Seattle Seahawks Tight Ends
The Seahawks have three tight ends under contract.
Noah Fant - Age 25
Contract: They traded for Noah Fant so they have no dead cap tied to him - they could cut him for $6.85 million with no penalty. He becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2024.
Outlook: Fant was moved as part of the Russell Wilson trade. He has never really lived up to the hype as he routinely ends up as the third target on the team which is a tough spot for a tight end.
Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - I’m holding and, if I can get him for cheap or free, I’ll add and stash. As of this moment he’s not poised to be startable but he’s one Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf injury away from the upside we need. And this guy still presents a TON of upside. We have to remember that he’s only 25; Travis Kelce didn’t have a 1,000-yard season until he was 27 and Zach Ertz didn’t until he was 28. We’ve been waiting for a guy like Dallas Goedert to take things to the next level and he hasn’t despite being 28. Heck, Delanie Walker didn’t break out until he was 30. So, we might be waiting until 2024, but Fant is one of the most athletic tight ends we’ve seen and he could have a late breakout at some point. I mean, check out these workout metrics per Player Profiler.
Will Dissly - Age 26
Contract: Will Dissly is under contract through 2024.
Outlook: If Dissly was going to be cut this year, it would have happened already but, since he was on the team past Friday, February 17th, a huge chunk of his contract became guaranteed. So he’s in.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Having two good wide receivers on the team with highly consolidated targets is bad for Will Dissly. Splitting snaps with Fant is bad for Dissly. Being the guy that stays in to block more often than Fant (14.4% vs. 9.4%) is bad for Dissly. Going on IR three times in five years is bad for Dissly. I’m struggling to find things that are good for Dissly. Trade if you can, otherwise drop.
Colby Parkinson - Age 24
Contract: Parkinson is under contract for 2023 then he’s a free agent.
Outlook: Parkinson is realistically the third man on the depth chart with little upside.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - The writing was on the wall when he couldn’t beat out Will Dissly. You don’t need to hold him.
Free Agency/Draft Outlook
Surprisingly, Will Dissly is actually being paid more than Noah Fant this year. But Fant is the one without the guarantee money tied to him. Unless Noah Fant is a surprise cut or they swing a very specific trade with Will Dissly that is designated as a post June-1 move, this position is pretty much set with these three guys. Maybe they take a late stab in the draft to fill the depth chart but it would likely be a guy that also plays special teams.
Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco for more NFL and fantasy football insights and stay tuned as we hit on all 32 NFL teams in this series leading into NFL free agency!
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