We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Thursday, November 16th, that will broadcast on TNT. There's a lot of news despite it being just a two-game slate including Stephen Curry and Draymond Green being out. The Heat will see Caleb Martin return tonight to make a mess of the Heat rotation. Make sure to check out today's NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections before finalizing your lineups today. We also have the NBA Consistency Report to help identify players that have exceeded value based on their current price tag this season and of course our NBA DFS Lineup Generator!
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Here's the NBA DFS Podcast for today's slate. Like the video and subscribe to our channel!
Pace Up Spots
Pace definition: Pace is the total number of possessions a team uses in a game.
*key* Green is elite pace of play, Blue is decent pace of play, & Red is slow pace of play.
Green = Fast Paced team
Blue = Neutral Paced team
Red = Slow Paced team
- Thunder rank: 4th vs. Warriors rank: 14th
- Nets rank: 18th vs. Heat rank: 17th
Spread: MIA -3.5
NBA Injury Report
Brooklyn Nets Injuries
Miami Heat Injuries
Nets NBA DFS Breakdown
The Nets have the lowest implied team total today in a paced down environment against a top-10 defense. They’re without two key pieces in Cameron Thomas and Ben Simmons so things will open up for them for sure.
Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off a ceiling game his last time out but without Thomas and Simmons this year, he’s averaged 1.12 FP/min which is VERY good. If you’re an MME player, maybe having a few shares of Dennis Smith Jr. and Lonnie Walker IV could be good, but if you’re playing just a few lineups I’d pass there.
Arguably the safest play on the Nets is Mikal Bridges despite being the highest priced. Over the last two games, Bridges has 39 and 48 DKP and has taken 17+ shots in each. I love that Cameron Johnson is still under $6,000 on DraftKings. That’s a perfect price point. We saw what Johnson can be when shots fall as he’s been north of 40% from three in each of the last two seasons. Dorian Finney-Smith has taken a backseat with Cameron Johnson while Royce O’Neale has continued to play 30 minutes nightly. O’Neale doesn’t have a massive ceiling but he’s averaging 24.8 DKP/game this year.
The frontcourt in Brooklyn is interesting. Nic Claxton has a really nice FP/min average when he’s able to stay out of foul trouble, but that’s definitely on the table here against this version of Bam Adebayo. I love the price and the 1.05 FP/min without Simmons and Thomas but foul trouble can derail him here. The pivot off Claxton is Day’Ron Sharpe and a good tournament pivot at that. Since Claxton returned, Sharpe has been his direct backup and has seen 19+ minutes in three of his last four games. He’s put up 26+ DKP in each of those games and he’s grabbed 10+ rebounds in all of them.
Heat NBA DFS Breakdown
Things couldn’t have been worse for Kyle Lowry in the Heat’s last game picking up three fouls in the first quarter and was unable to establish any rhythm. He should once again play more minutes than Josh Richardson as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Richardson is cheaper, but I don’t expect him to play more than Lowry here.
After Jimmy Butler, the Heats wing situation is very messy with the return of Caleb Martin. Butler’s fine, by the way, but I don’t *love* the price. Martin will likely be limited here, but how does he cut into the minutes of Duncan Robinson, Jamie Jaquez Jr. and Haywood Highsmith? It’s hard to ignore how good all three of them have been, especially Robinson and Jaquez. Robinson’s shot needs to fall in order to stay on the floor, Jaquez has been incredible off the bench, but does being a rookie hurt him here, and Highsmith can be an elite defensive specialist. I like the Jaquez price the most, Robinson will probably be the most contrarian.
Bam Adebayo has taken a leap. It’s been special. I’m not sure what else to say about it. He’s been dominating offensively as much as he has defensively, a place he’s always been elite at. He’s put up 49+ DKP in five straight games and in six of seven overall. It’s hard to not include Adebayo in your lineups on a small slate where sometimes raw fantasy points matter the most.
Top Play(s): Bam Adebayo
Spread: OKC -1.5
NBA Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries
Golden State Warriors Injuries
Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That is all. He’s #good. He has 54+ DKP in four straight, has averaged 56.9 DKP/game over his last five. He’s the top spend on the slate by a mile. I don’t love Josh Giddey at this price based on his production and minutes this year, but he is coming off 39 and 40 DKP in back-to-back games. I’m not sure I get why 32 minutes seems to be his ceiling, but that’s where we are. He’s at 1.05 FP/min this year which *does* give him a shot at 40 DKP. Secondary play for me.
My favorite wing for the Thunder is Luguentz Dort at 5.5K. Especially at a sub-10% ownership on a two-game slate. Dort has averaged 27.4 DKP/game and four times this year he’s put up 33+ DKP. Dort is going to chase Klay Thompson all around the floor in this game and oh by the way, Dort had his ceiling game against Golden State. Jalen Williams averages .01 FP/min less than Dort this year and is $600 more than him. Isaiah Joe has a scoring ceiling in GPPs at just $3.5K.
Chet Holmgren is interesting in tournaments today. He hasn’t been all that great recently, but there haven’t many 33+ minute games recently. He has averaged 1.21 FP/min this season, which is second on the team amongst guys that are in the rotation. Jaylin Williams could be extended in a situation where Holmgren gets in foul trouble.
Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown
We saw Chris Paul start in place of Stephen Curry last time out and Paul was extended 36 minutes while stuffing the box score. This is a big pace-up spot for Golden State, so getting Paul more possessions is a good thing. He’s going to be one of the more popular plays of the slate. Both he and Klay Thompson are amongst two of the top four in that category. Thompson’s been a .9 FP/min producer without Curry and Green this year and was over 1 FP/min last year.
One of the questions of the entire slate is what do we do with Brandin Podziemski who is coming off a slate-breaking performance and the first time he’s really even played extended run for the Warriors. He benefitted from Klay Thompson being ejected, but would he have had a solid regardless is the question. Seeing him over 20% rostered makes me want to full fade in my GPP lineups, but I understand the appeal. Gary Payton II is a secondary play who could find himself in a mid-20’s mid-20-minute role.
I told Jon Impemba on the NBA DFS Preview show this morning that I expected Dario Saric to be the most popular play of the slate and gosh darn it I was close. He’s projected to be the second highest. Regardless, we should see Saric start and continue to be one of the most reliable offensive players they have. He has two of the Warriors three 20-point games that aren’t Stephen Curry. His 1.3 FP/min without Green and Curry led the team this season.
The next tier of Warriors options include Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga. Wiggins, in a game without Curry, Green, and Thompson, still played just 28 minutes and went 4-for-15 from the floor. Kuminga played a season-low 16 minutes last time out but had topped 21+ in the two games prior. He’s flashed a pretty low floor overall this season, but without Curry and Green this year, Kuminga has a 28% USG rate, which leads the team.
Kevon Looney has been a good fantasy ceiling/floor without Draymond Green usually. Looney has averaged 1.03 FP/min without Green and Curry and last game, we saw him play 31 minutes. He’s only 5.4K on DK.