Our NBA predictions went three for three on Wednesday! It was perfection as the double unit Bet of the Night on Luka Doncic cashed on his best scoring performance of the series. 

Daniel Gafford poured in the effort and earned his seventh rebound in the fourth quarter, getting off the hook and cashing for Fantasy Alarm. Jayson Tatum was well under thirty points and the most successful bet of the second round delivered again. This will be the last daily article of the season, as tomorrow's article will highlight the Conference Finals and NBA Finals. 




Including today’s bets, there have been a total of 520 bets given out from the opening game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, to the last game of the Conference Semifinals. I have suggested withdrawals throughout the season, totaling 32 units, and this column is currently +8.50 units. The playoff goal of this column was to get back to +10.00 units, and with successful betting today, that can happen!

NBA Picks & Predictions: Sunday, 5/19

Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets has won 11 of its last 15 bets and will look to win four more today. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are easily the two most entertaining series of the 2024 playoffs. 

Fortunately, as fans, and bettors, we get one more game to enjoy. There are two bets from each game, one player prop and one straight bet. The Bet of the Night comes from the evening game of Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets.




Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction: Anthony Edwards U27.5 Points (+100 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

Some might be dumbfounded to see that the Bet of the Night is on the under on the most talked about player of the playoffs… or at least the Western Conference. Anthony Edwards has really elevated his status and fame during the 2024 playoffs. 

He is only 22 years old, and already has the charm of Charles Barkley. People enjoy his cursing and aggressive demeanor that comes off as authentic. If Draymond Green or LeBron James said the exact same words that Anthony Edwards did after Game 6 they would be bashed on… but Edwards has the charm. Does it translate to points today though?

Part of that charm has carried over to the betting world. Some would have you believe Edwards is scoring thirty or more points in every game of this series, when in fact he has scored 28 or more just twice in six games of this series. He has scored a combined 45 points in his last two games in Denver. Yet the line is at positive odds for the under, and we are going to take advantage of it. 

The Minnesota Timbewolves utilized the same counter tactic that the Nuggets did when the Timberwolves were double-teaming Jamal Murray… they moved the ball out of Edwards hands. Edwards is not taking the ball up court to help eliminate the full court pressure, and avoid the immediate trap once he is past half court. 

This helped the Timberwolves move the ball more fluidly in a massive Game 6 win. Although it is uncertain how the Nuggets and Timberwolves will game plan, you can guarantee that limiting Edwards is part of Coach Michael Malone’s top agenda. 

In addition to that Edwards is in the first Game 7 of his career. Confidence and belief in yourself only get you so far. The mental pressure of a Game 7 can be a lot for any NBA player, but especially a 22-year-old. He has consistently been over 50% on his field goal attempts this series, look for that to change tonight in the biggest game of his life.




NBA Props & Best Bets, 5/19

Isaiah Hartenstein has been one of Fantasy Alarm’s most bet on players this season, and he leads off the second portion of my NBA picks today. Plus, I’ll shell out a game prediction for both matchups today!

Pacers vs. Knicks: Isaiah Hartenstein U11.5 Rebounds (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

Hartenstein has been up and down throughout the year, and we have been betting on his rebounds, both the over and under. He has had some decent games in this series but could be battling through an injury to his shoulder. 

He has recorded 12 or more rebounds just twice in this series, failing to reach that mark in four games. He is playing a high number of minutes when not in foul trouble but OG Anunoby has been upgraded to questionable, and has been rumored to play. If he does that will dip into Hartenstein’s rebounding opportunities. 

Josh Hart left Game 6 with an abdominal strain but is expected to battle through it. Although it will limit his rebounding, he positions himself so well he can rely on that more than out jumping the Pacers. This too will affect Hartenstein’s rebounds.

Hartenstein averaged 8.3 rebounds per game in the regular season, and four more added to it in a Game 7 seems like a lot to ask. Especially with teammates coming back to play, and the Pacers having two great rebounders as well. Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam are long and lengthy with high basketball IQs. Each of them are capable of 10 rebounds as well.

In addition to that Hartenstein does get in foul trouble. Tyrese Haliburton, TJ McConnell, and P. Siakam penetrate into the lane, and could lure Hartenstein into unnecessary fouls. Should he play less than thirty minutes this bet is almost guaranteed to be successful. It will be a battle in the front court, and we are counting on Hartenstein earning his average rebound line, not more.




Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction: Over 208 Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

It has been stated, almost as folklore, that seven is the amount of completeness. Seven days in a week, triple sevens usually indicate a large winer, seven continents, and there are seven games in a complete NBA series. It could also be the seventh game of this series in which the total score has been 210 or higher.

Conventional thinking can get you in tough situations as a bettor, as well as other situations in life. My initial thought this morning when comparing the line movements was, ‘two Game 7s, both games should be low scoring and should be an automatic wager’. But as always, I looked at the data before making a wager, and found a different story.

The New York Knicks are known as a tough defensive team led by a stern Head Coach in Tom Thibodeau. However, their defense has been downright atrocious this series, and with such a shallow bench that likely will not change. The Indiana Pacers have been known for their offense all season, and their defense has been a second thought, except for setting DFS lineups.

In every game of this series there have been at least 210 points scored. Some games had 30 or 40 more points over 210, and the line is at 208? There should be an expectation for some players to be more nervous than normal, but the pace at which both of these teams play have made it the high scoring event it is. One of the teams usually experiences a great field goal percentage and leads to scores over 115 points. The free throws expected in this game only aid the over. 

It is illogical to go against the data of six games indicating that nothing is changing. At times you have to defy trends and conventional wisdom, bet the over on Game 7.




Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction: Nuggets -4.5 (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 7 at Ball Arena to close out the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Could there be a more fitting game? The defending champions look to win their sixth playoff series in a row against their division rival. 

This has been a battle of great coaching, as both make moves and counter moves. The staff of both teams and players are so familiar with each other that this game will truly come down to who executes better. Who made the correct adjustments watching the game film and who can get the better field goal percentage. 

It is difficult to beat any team four times in a row, much less a great team with loaded talent. The Timberwolves had an excellent Game 6 they made 14 more field goals, 8 more three point attempts, had 10 more free throws, and out rebounded the Nuggets by 19. It was a very lopsided game at the Target Center.

Now that the game is back at Ball Arena after two and half days' time to prepare, it could be a different story. This will be Coach Malone, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.’s fifth Game 7 together, although Porter Jr was inactive for both 2019 series. They have been in this environment before, meanwhile it is the first Game 7 for Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Towns. 

The Nuggets have rarely had bad back-to-back games, they have the best player in the world, and one of the best coaching staffs when it comes to making adjustments. It could start out a battle but after the adrenaline wears off and the altitude kicks in, the Timberwolves’ stamina could run out. The Nuggets should have a powerful second half and cover the set spread of this game. Good teams win, great teams cover… we’re talking about the champs at home in a Game 7. Put a unit down.




Thank you for checking out my expert NBA predictions today! Make sure to visit Fantasy Alarm’s sports section for betting, DFS, and best ball tips.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise