Hello, and thank goodness it is Friday! Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets is coming off a sweep Wednesday! Three prop bets, three wins, and over 2.75 units gained, thanks to Grayson Allen, Paolo Banchero, and Nic Claxton. 

Today, there are 12 games across the NBA, and all but six teams will be playing. It’s tempting to lay a bet in every game, but Fantasy Alarm has searched the lines and found a few great angles.

 

 

 

A familiar face returns to our NBA best bets column in what could be the game of the night, the Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder. Another all-time great, Kevin Durant, is making a return to Paycom Center and the team that drafted him. It is the organization that helped him develop, and where he won his NBA MVP. 

There will be the rare two game props from the same game. The Bet of the Night comes from an even more familiar face, and one dear to the bettors of this column.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 3/29

Pascal Siakam Props: Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds (-120 on DraftKings) *3 UNITS

The last Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets article was the first to skip over Pascal Siakam’s rebounding line in two weeks, as his rebounding line was bumped up to 8.5 against the Chicago Bulls who have two great rebounding centers. The closing remarks of that column were that it felt like a trap… and it was. 

He earned exactly eight rebounds on that game, the sportsbooks were dialed in. Today the Indiana Pacers host the Los Angeles Lakers, and will be playing each other for the second time in five days. Siakam’s rebounding line was at 7.5 last night and was at 7.5 early this morning. Alas, as I began to write about taking his over at 7.5 rebounds it changed to 8.5, and now with positive odds. 

The truth is Siakam could easily pass this line as he had twelve rebounds in their game five days ago. However, Fantasy Alarm did a deep dive into this and found an angle that is a bit perplexing. Then it was decided a Good Friday three-unit hammer was the best measure to take. Siakam absolutely demolished the Lakers in their last game, despite Anthony Davis having a great game with 36 points and 16 rebounds. Siakam earned 36 points (his most of the month) and 12 rebounds. 

 

 

 

Read that again: Siakam had a combined 52 points and rebounds. The line is at 30.5 today, and it doesn’t make sense. He has covered this in his last six of seven games played. He has been playing over thirty minutes in every game that isn’t a blowout. This column has repeatedly stated how Head Coach Rick Carlisle has brought a new life to Siakam. The 30.5 is not adding up. 

The Lakers allow the ninth most points to opposing forwards. There were a combined 295 points scored in their last game, and Siakam has scored 270 points this month. He is averaging a combined 32.1 points and rebounds per game this month, and the Lakers could be resting A. Davis and Lebron James again. The Pacers are in sixth place of the Eastern Conference by just one game and cannot let up. 

The last emphasis of this bet is the Pacers played poorly against the Bulls in their last game, and championship players respond with better performances after a poor one. Put the three units down with confidence as Siakam could earn this with points alone.

 

 

 

NBA Props Today, 3/29

Grayson Allen Props: Over 2.5 Threes Made (-140 on DraftKings)

An oldie but a goodie, Grayson Allen has delivered for us this season. He has an outstanding success rate, particularly after the All-Star break. Tonight, the Phoenix Suns play the Oklahoma City Thunder. They beat the Western Conference leaders, the Denver Nuggets, in their last game, and now play against the second-best team in the conference. A tough test no doubt about it. 

The Suns are half a game behind the sixth place Dallas Mavericks, half a game ahead of the eighth place Sacramento Kings, and two games ahead of the ninth place Los Angeles Lakers. The West is not for the faint of heart, and Grayson Allen is a national champion. 

 

 

 

The former Duke Blue Devil is excelling in his role with the Suns. He has played thirty-two or more minutes in every game this month except the blowout win against San Antonio. If you exclude the two games in San Antonio he has made three or more three-point attempts in seven straight games, and a total of nine of twelve this month. 

It is his role to stay behind the arc, wait for a swing pass or a kick out from Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, or Kevin Durant– then score. He has been so good to us this month, the Thunder are average against shooting guards, and the Suns will have to score to keep up with the Thunder. Put one unit on our guy tonight.

 

 

 

Kevin Durant Props: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-140 on DraftKings)

Kevin Durant is having one of the best seasons of his career. One could make a valid argument that he has been the best USA born player this year, as Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the only players seriously considered for the NBA MVP… and Jokic is the clear favorite by most sportsbooks. 

However, Durant gave Jokic and the Nuggets all they could handle two days ago. 32 points, 13 rebounds, and a victory in 38 minutes played. It is crunch time for the Suns, and their leader is putting the franchise on his back. He will have to have another great performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder if the Suns are not going to slip down the rankings. 

 

 

 

The thirty-five-year-old future Hall of Fame member has covered this line safely in five of his last seven games played. The Thunder are only a little better than average at limiting opposing forwards rebounds, and Durant is a wise, seven-foot forward. The Thunder allow 53.2 rebounds per game, the sixth most in the Association. 

If Kevin Durant plays with the same energy and aggressiveness he did two days ago, this will be an easy cover. The Nuggets allow the third fewest rebounds to opposing teams this season, and Durant had seven before the end of the first quarter. Look for more of the same tonight. 

 

 

 

Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise