Yesterday’s NBA best bets article was a mixed bag. The Lakers and Bucks went to overtime to secure over 109.5 points each, and truth be told that was an excellent game with a lot of grit. The Dallas Mavericks absolutely destroyed the Sacramento Kings, and it is becoming apparent that Dallas made the best deadline trades to improve their team. 

 

 

 

Sacramento could not even score one-hundred points. This caused the over on the Mavericks and Kings game to fall five points short. The Oklahoma City Thunder took the lead in the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans and never looked back. This moves the Pelicans to the do not bet list as they have lost three straight wagers for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. 

Today is a loaded slate of games – 12, to be exact – and that means 24 of 30 teams are playing. There are betting angles everywhere but the focus is on a couple familiar faces. Player props dominate the bets today as we look into the following games; Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic, Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards, and the Bet of the Night comes from the Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 3/27

Grayson Allen Props: Over 2.5 Threes Made (+100 on BetMGM)

This bet was almost an automatic wager a few weeks ago, but we wisely stayed away during the two games against the San Antonio Spurs. Grayson Allen did not make a single three-point attempt in either of his games in San Antonio. 

In the nine games prior he was lights out behind the arc: 3, 9, 6, 3, 4, 4, 0, 8, 8. Those are fantastic numbers and a consistent winner if his line is at 2.5. His line went up to 3.5 a few games ago, and after two bad games is back to 2.5 at even odds, unreal! Allen is successful on 48.5% of his three attempts this month, and should he attempt five or more, this plus odds prop should be successful.

Fantasy Alarm will take advantage of this mistake by the sportsbooks, tonight as the Phoenix Suns play the Denver Nuggets in the late game, 10:00 PM ET, on ESPN. One of Allen’s games in which he made eight successful threes was against Denver too. That game, like this one, was in Denver. He is a fantastic spot up scorer, and will have opportunities tonight as Devner’s defense can get lackadaisical. 

The Suns also match up well against the Denver Nuggets. Phoenix was the only team to win two games against the Nuggets on their historic playoff run last year, and they won their game on March 5th by ten points. 

They did however get embarrassed in their last game with a loss to the Spurs. In doing so they slipped to eighth place in the Western Conference and are only two games ahead of the surging Los Angeles Lakers. A loss tonight, paired with a Lakers win against Memphis, would have the Suns just one game from ninth place… look for them to bring intensity tonight.

 

 

 

NBA Props Today, 3/27

Nic Claxton Props: Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105 on BetMGM)

Welcome back Nic Claxton. Fantasy Alarm is also back to using the Washington Wizards as a punching bag. We moved away from this bet after the line went way too high on most games. Then there were games against injured or hurt centers, and then it was temporarily forgotten. But like a forgotten fantasy champion trophy that collects dust only to be ‘rediscovered’, this too will bring back a smile.

The Brooklyn Nets play the Washington Wizards and both teams are experiencing a rough season. That rough season becomes an advantage again as we are back to betting on the opposing center to cover his rebounding line. Claxton’s line has been set at 11.5 rebounds, and it is at plus odds also. 

The Wizards still allow the most rebounds to opposing teams with 56.9 per game, and on par they allowed 57.0 in their last game. Nic Claxton has 610 rebounds this season and is coming off a game in which he grabbed sixteen rebounds. He has covered this line in three games this month and none of them were against the worst rebounding team in the Association. 

Collectively betting the rebounds against the Wizards has been the most successful bet of this column. Claxton has also won a few bets this year. The match up should favor Claxton as we look for another profit against the Wizards.

 

 

 

Paolo Banchero Props: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-150 on DraftKings)

The Orlando Magic host the Golden State Warriors, beginning at 7:00 PM ET. The Warriors are playing in the second of back-to-back games against a much younger team. The Magic are in a race for third place of the Eastern Conference, currently 1.5 games back. The Warriors are currently tenth place in the Western Conference and desperately clinging to the last play-in spot.

Paolo Banchero is the unquestioned leader of the Magic in just his second year in the Association. The Magic are stat leaders as they allow the fewest rebounds to opposing teams. This is because of controlling the pace of the game, but 6’ 10”, 250-pound Banchero is a part of it too. He is one of the biggest forwards in the game and is still growing in height and in muscle mass. 

As stated, the Warriors are one of the older teams in the league, and the Magic are one of the younger teams. Banchero has covered this rebounding line in three of his last five games, and is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game this season. The Warriors allow the tenth most rebounds to opposing forwards, and an average of 51.3 in their last three games played. 

This line has been juiced, but the expectation is for Banchero to out hustle the older Warriors and block out with his large frame. He is a great defensive rebounder due to his effort, size, and knowledge of how to keep the defender on his back. 

Fellow teammate, and starting center, Wendell Carter is a big body, but only plays around twenty-two to twenty-six minutes. Banchero has played thirty-two or more minutes in every game this month except the blowout victory against the Charlotte Hornets. 

The minutes, his size, the fact that the Warriors are on back-to-back games, that the Magic are competing for third in the Eastern Conference, and Paolo Banchero making a case to be on the All-NBA team are factors that give great confidence in this bet. Juiced up or not it is a great wager for today.

 

 

 

A side note: our guy, Pascal Siakam is playing today, and despite not earning eight rebounds in his last game, his line has moved up to 8.5 against the Chicago Bulls. This feels like a trap and we will monitor this game to see how he does against Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond.

Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise