An absolutely terrible way to end the month, but thankfully Damian Lillard came through on the double unit, positive odds prop and kept the damage to a minimum. Victor Wembanyama did his part, but Chet Holmgren did not as the Oklahoma City Thunder had an embarrassing loss to the last place San Antonio Spurs. 

The Los Angeles Lakers somehow went into overtime against the Washington Wizards, absolutely killing the under. Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks gave his worst performance of February, and in doing so is on this column’s do not bet list. Such is betting my friends, and a bettor has to be able to handle the lows and highs of this profession.

 

A new month, a new day, and the goal is under way. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets is still ahead of the pace required for forty units. Today this column gets back to the bets that built this amazing bankroll too. There are nine games today in the Association, two of which are on ESPN. The Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics beginning at 7:30 PM ET. That is followed by the surging Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls with a 10:00 PM ET tip off. 

There is a wager in the Bucks versus Bulls game on Damian Lillard, who has been hotter than fish grease. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Washington Wizards, and we take advantage of the Wizards playing in an extended game last night with a prop bet. Most importantly in my NBA best bets today, the Bet of the Night is on a Fantasy Alarm ‘my guy’ who has won us at least ten units this season: Scottie Barnes. 

Expert NBA Best Bet & Pick Today, 3/1

Scottie Barnes Player Props: Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115 at FanDuel)

There will be several points in your life when you evaluate something, anything, and notice the math is not adding up, or that something is off. Such is the case with Scottie Barnes tonight. This column has mentioned several times to take advantage of the smart bet when rebounding or assists lines are at 9.5 and a double-double could yield a larger return on investment. 

Fantasy Alarm double downed on Barnes two days ago and it was a massive success. Apparently, the bookies paid attention to our move and countered it with a move that would make any salesperson scratch their head. Barnes’ rebounding line is set at 8.5 and -115 across several books, his assists line is set at 7.5 across the four books this column utilizes and set around -130 on all. 

This is the baffling move by the bookies, his to record a double-double line is at -130 to -135 across all of those books. This makes absolutely no sense with his rebounding and assists line set 1.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists below the threshold of ten – and the lower prop is set at better odds! Computers, humans, all are prone to errors, and it appears the bookies have made just that. 

There are only two possible reasons for this: The books are assuming he will have over ten rebounds or assists but do not want to juice up a line. Our Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets hit them so hard two days ago their head is spinning on how to handle a player whose statistics are almost bi-polar in production over the past seven weeks. 

Remember the mantra ‘Bet Smart, Be Lucky’, and we are taking the smarter angle. The Toronto Raptors host the Golden State Warriors who laid it on the line last night with great effort against the New York Knicks. The Raptors get the benefit of playing an old team on the second of back-to-back games, on the road, and with international travel required. 

The Warriors will be ‘flat’ to start if not the entire game, and Scottie Barnes is never flat. He has played thirty or more minutes in eleven of his last twelve games, has recorded a double double in five straight games, and has had nine or more rebounds in seven of his last eight games. Fellow teammate, and Toronto’s starting center, Jakob Peoltl is banged up but will play. 

Not to worry as that hasn’t stopped Barnes from returning to the rebounding machine he was in November and December. The Warriors allow an average of 51.0 rebounds per game, allowed 67.0 last night, and an average of 54.0 in their last three games. The rebounds will be there for Barnes especially with the Warriors missing more field goal attempts on tired legs. Trust our guy to deliver again.

 

NBA Prop Bets for Today, 3/1

Damian Lillard Player Props: Over 4.5 Rebounds (+120 at DraftKings)

Damian Lillard has been successful in his last three games we have placed wagers on. They were all three different props, but tonight we have our first back to back bet on Lillard. The Milwaukee Bucks are playing in back-to-back games against their division rival, the Chicago Bulls, tonight on ESPN with a 9:00 PM local tip-off. It is a projected close game with only a four-point spread in favor of Milwaukee, which should mean thirty or more minutes for Lillard. 

The 2024 All-Star MVP has been on a roll, and we are rolling with him. In similar fashion to winning a blowout game of twenty-one or chess, the opponent has given no break and asked to run it back. DraftKings got spanked on this exact same rebounding prop, with the exact same odds yesterday and has dared us to run it back… so we are. 

Five rebounds needed at +120 and Lillard has five or more rebounds in five straight games, including every game since the All-Star break. The Bulls are exactly in the middle of the Association in opposing team rebounds allowed with 51.3 per game. Milwaukee is a bit different as their center Brook Lopez spends a great deal of time on the perimeter of the key and doesn’t get many rebounds. 

In fact, his rebounding line has been moved to the same as Lillard’s at 4.5. That is rare for a point guard and center to have the same rebounding line. The Bulls have Alex Caruso listed as questionable tonight, and if he does not play, it’s a big boost to Lillard’s chances to cover. If you prefer to drop it down one Lillard’s rebounding line is at 3.5 on FanDuel, with negative odds of course.

 

Ivica Zubac Player Props: Over 8.5 Rebounds (-140 at BetMGM)

Ivica Zubac is making his first appearance for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. A player who’s minutes can be sporadic is difficult to trust with your money, but not tonight. He was out Wednesday with an illness and listed as questionable for tonight’s match, but he has prop lines on all sportsbooks, and it appears he will play. 

If he does not play, we simply get our unit back for tomorrow. If he does play, he is playing the worst rebounding team this year if not this decade. The Wizards allow the most rebounds per game in the Association with 57.4, and the number goes up on road games to 57.8. They allow the most rebounds to opposing centers with 23.71 per game, and Zubac is averaging 9.5 per game this season. 

He has ten or more rebounds in four of his last five games, and the one he didn’t was against the best rebounder in the league, Domantas Sabonis. In his last four games played he has recorded twenty-six or more minutes, and if he gets that many minutes tonight it should be an easy cover. As scary as it can be betting on a new player, betting the rebounds against the Wizards has been the go-to bankroll builder this year. Trust the data to deliver another winner.

 

As tempting as it is to lay a double unit on Barnes and Lillard, we go back to the basics this month of three bets, one unit per bet, win two for a profit, or three for a great night. The goal of forty units through my NBA best bets WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS MONTH. Hopefully sooner rather than later. 

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise