We’re back at it this week with our PrizePicks plays for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Last week went pretty well hitting three of the five given in the piece. If we include the under on Kyle Larson’s laps led that was given out in the discord chat, that’s four of six props hit.
For those new to PrizePicks or getting interested for the first time, it’s a props bet site in which you can make your own, cross-sport, prop “boards” of 2-5 props. The more props you put on your board, the higher the potential return you have but the higher the difficulty is of hitting all of the props. In general the best strategy here is to stick to 2-3 prop boards giving you at least 3x return. That kind of return is a great way to build a bank roll.
Kyle Larson OVER 66.5 Fantasy Points
We’re going to be hammering Larson today. There’s really no reason not to. He’s been dominant here since joining HMS and has easily hit the over on this the last two races and now has the fastest car from practice. There’s leeway here too, I know that sounds odd with this high of a score, but there is. If he leads as many laps and/or gets as many fastest laps as he’s gotten each of the last two races, he can finish anywhere in the top-10 and hit this over.
Chase Briscoe OVER 24.5 Fantasy Points
Briscoe is starting P4. What have we done with guys starting that high and this low of a score so far this year? Take the over. The idea is simple. He has the speed to be up there and ran fast in practice, as well as last week. As long as he finishes inside the top-10, he hits the over. That’s it. He can drop back six spots and still cash our bet. Why not take it?
William Byron OVER 8.5 Cars Passed
Last week we went with Blaney just having to pass one car and it looked good until late, this week we’re going for a bit of a tougher task. To hit this over Byron needs to finish P5 or better given that he’s starting P14. Do we trust that? Well he could’ve challenged for the win last week had he not blown a tire and now this week he had the best 15-lap and 20-lap averages at practice and a top-five single-lap speed. If that speed shows up again, Byron finishes top-five and hits this prop.
The Brothers Busch Duo
Both Busch brothers have Cars Passed, or Position Differential in DFS terms, props for today. We’re going to be splitting them. Kurt Busch is starting P31 after running top-15 in practice and Kyle Busch is starting P37 after running top-12 in practice. So which way are we going with them? We’re taking the OVER at 18.5 for Kurt Busch and the UNDER at 27.5 for Kyle Busch. The over for Kurt means he needs a top-12 or better to hit which is certainly within his capability in the primary car and following practice. The under for Kyle means if he finishes anywhere from 37th-10th he hits. Kyle is in a backup car and got no practice time in that backup and last week he didn’t exactly do well keeping the car from spinning multiple times.
Doubling Up On Larson
The Laps Led prop on Larson is at 59.5. Why? I’m not going to tell them that it’s too low but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to tell you not to hammer it. In the two races here with Hendrick last year he led 103 and 95 laps respectively and has the fastest car over the long run this weekend. There’s also a narrative street here with his boss donating $2,000 a lap led by any Hendrick car to Ukraine relief. He could very well hit this prop before the end of the first stage. Side note though, you have to split up the Larson props as you can’t take two props for the same driver on the same set of picks.
Erik Jones OVER 33.5 Fantasy Points
“That Jones Boy” is back on my radar this week and why shouldn’t he be? He easily hit the over last week of 18.5 and while the speed isn’t quite the same this week, there’s still plenty of upside. He’s starting 23rd in the grid and ran 13th in practice. He’s also posted three top-10s and four total top-15s in the last several races here. Why is that important? To hit the over on this he needs to finish P16 or better. That’s pretty well within his wheelhouse.
Check out the rest of the NASCAR DFS content for the Pennzoil 400:
Track Breakdown
NASCAR Podcast
DFS Rankings
DFS Playbook