NASCAR DFS The LiUNA! Playbook & Top Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series enters its third race of the 2024 season with their Saturday contribution to NASCAR’s third straight triple-header and they’ll do it at Las Vegas Motor Speedway! We’re taking a break from the “drafting” portion of the schedule, especially after Austin Hill claimed back-to-back wins at Daytona and Atlanta. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he won at least one of those races. But he had no business winning Atlanta after that race came down to who saved the most fuel. But finally, we have a track where we can analyze and value practice data. We won’t see drafting at Las Vegas. This will be a race where we can target the dominator points, go for laps led, and still find some solid place differential options. Here are the top drivers and strategies for your NASCAR DFS lineups on DraftKings for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, The LiUNA!

If you seek a breakdown of Las Vegas Motor Speedway, I suggest taking a quick look at yesterday’s Truck Series Playbook. But to sum it up, this is a “cookie cutter” intermediate track. We have a 1.5-mile tri-oval with decent banking and a track where tire wear is gradually coming into play more and more as the years pass.

Saturday’s race will be for 200 laps broken into 45-45-110 lap stages. We’ll likely get about 120-130 dominator points to target so two-dominator approaches will be popular, but don’t forget to mix in some solo-dominator builds as well. We also don’t tend to see too many cautions at Vegas for the Xfinity Series. I’m not going to say that’s scripture, but the last three races have been fairly tame:

1. 2023 Fall – Five Cautions, 26 Laps
2. 2023 Spring – Four Cautions, 22 Laps
3. 2022 Fall – Three Cautions, 15 Laps

Now if we were to expand the sample size we would see three straight races with at least eight cautions. And it’s always worth reminding you all how frustrating this series can be and how difficult it is to trust these drivers.

Over the four races in the last two years, there have been at least two drivers to lead 40+ laps. It stands to reason we could see something similar on Saturday. Vegas produces longer green flag runs and the racing Friday night was solid until pit sequences in stage three hurt a few good teams. We should expect the best drivers to finish well. However, late race chaos is beneficial to some. Bret Holmes and Conner Jones had no business finishing well last night. But they finished 13^th and 14^th respectively because of the late issues for drivers like Kyle Busch, Stewart Friesen, Tanner Gray, Ty Majeski, etc. 

Most lineups for this race will pay up for Justin Allgaier and a primary dominator. That could be anyone from Cole Custer, to Chandler Smith, to John Hunter Nemechek, or anybody starting in the top 10. That’s a manageable strategy for this race. We can easily afford two top-end drivers because the most expensive driver in this race is $11,000 while last night’s race had two drivers priced above that. Here are the top plays to build around for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race on DraftKings!

The LiUNA! Practice Notes From Friday

The LiUNA! NASCAR DFS Core Driver Picks

Top Price Core Plays

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P12)

In this race a year ago with Joe Gibbs Racing, JHN only finished sixth but he led 45 laps with a 113.6 driver rating. In the fall race during the playoffs he started dead last and was the runner-up with a 119.0 driver rating. JHN had a phenomenal Xfinity Series campaign in 2023 and it led to a promotion back to the Cup Series. But last year he had seven wins and on intermediates he won Kansas-2, Texas, Michigan, Auto Club, and he was top five at both Charlotte and Darlington with 57 laps led in both spring races. With Nemechek, you get some position differential in addition to a potential dominator. Even if he won the race and led just one lap, that’s good enough to get 5X value on DraftKings. But we know the ceiling is higher than that so here’s some chalk I’m happy to indulge in.

Justin Allgaier ($10,700; Starting P36)

As much as I love JHN for this race, he’s far from the most popular driver in Saturday’s race. Allgaier is a Cash game lock simply because of where he’s starting. Allgaier had a tire go down during his qualifying lap and he saved it with ease while others would have likely wrecked. In practice Allgaier boasted one of the best green flag averages including a top five single-lap, and he had the best 10-lap average as well. He will crush his value with a top 10 and we know there’s win equity with this car. You easily play him in Cash games and use your best judgment with Tournament exposure. Allgaier has raced at Vegas 19 times in his Xfinity Series career and has finished outside the top 10 just three times, but he’s yet to win.

Chandler Smith ($10,300; Starting P2)

A lot of people will be enamored with Cole Custer starting on the pole, and I get it. I’ll get to him shortly. But I love this spot for Chandler Smith. With Kaulig Racing last year, Smith finished third and fourth with 141 total laps led between both races. He had an average driver rating of 126.35 between both races. Now keep in mind, part of what has me in love with Smith starting P2 is that we know what John Hunter Nemechek did at intermediates last year with this organization. And Smith was phenomenal on this track with a slightly lesser team. So if most of the ownership goes to Custer, I may just aim to be a little overweight on Smith for Saturday’s race.

Riley Herbst ($9,500; Starting P11)

Here I’ll dig a little deeper into Custer while also touching on Riley Herbst. Why not just lump the SHR cars together, right? Custer managed to post the second-fastest single-lap and he was second-fastest in 10-lap averages. You don’t need too much persuasion to start the defending Xfinity Series champion on the pole. So why not acknowledge his teammate? Remember, in this race last fall Riley Herbst broke down barriers when he scored his first career win at this track. And it wasn’t just a fluky win. He dominated the race with over 100 laps led. He was easily in the best car last fall. And he kept that momentum going to finish the year as well. He didn’t finish worse than fourth across his last five races. And on top of all that, this is his home track and he starts P11 with a little position differential. Herbst posted the sixth-fastest 10-lap average and should be considered a contender even if he doesn’t carry as much win equity as JHN, Allgaier, or Custer.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Sam Mayer ($8,800; Starting P14)

The seal was really broken for Mayer once he scored that first win last year with Jr. Motorsports. But even before that he gave us reasons to be confident in him at intermediates. In this race a year ago he started P14 and finished seventh. Then in the fall he started P14 (again) and grabbed a top five finish and then he won at Homestead the following week. He was just inside the top 10 in terms of speed for practice, but he’s reasonably priced for a driver who collected four wins down the stretch last year.

Jesse Love ($8,700; Starting P15)

Starting right behind Mayer will be Jesse Love in the #2-car for Richard Childress Racing. Love earned the pole for the first two races of the year at Daytona and Atlanta. Regardless of the drafting nature of those tracks, he led a combined 191 laps between the two races despite finishing outside the top 10 in both races. Love has wins from his time in the ARCA Series at Kansas and Charlotte. He even grabbed a top 15 last year in the Truck Series at Kansas. He’s shown he can run up front in the draft. Let’s see if he can move up at an intermediate track. Fortunately for him, he’s in good equipment and had decent speed in practice.

Brandon Jones ($8,100; Starting P13)

This seems like a good leverage spot for Jones. He didn’t have a great first year with Jr. Motorsports, but certainly has great equipment for this price tag. Jones is in a similar situation to where Ben Rhodes was Friday night. Started in a similar spot in a loaded field and went slightly under-owned. I’m optimistic Jones can squeeze out a better run. I was tempted to go with Shane Van Gisbergen ($8,300; Starting P25), and he’ll certainly make the table below but he’s an easy play given the equipment and starting spot. Jones is a good contrarian option that carries top five equity and the potential to help you win a GPP. In 14 races at Vegas, he’s finished ninth or better in 10 of them and he has a pair of wins on his resume from Kansas. There are plenty of popular options in the tier above, but Jones helps you get a little different.

Corey Heim ($7,800; Starting P16)

We don’t have a monstrous sample size with Heim by any means, but we do know that he’s a good, young driver. In Friday’s Truck Series race he started P25 and it didn’t take him long to get inside the top five and compete. He didn’t get the win, but he still brings talent to whatever ride he’s occupying. He’ll drive for Sam Hunt Racing once again on Saturday. Last year with this car he finished 15^th and 10^th at Darlington but had mechanical issues at Dover and Pocono. So be mindful there are mild concerns with the equipment. If he can steal a top 10 finish in this race, that’s at least 40 fantasy points on DraftKings. He’s strictly a Tournament-only play. I will acknowledge Parker Retzlaff ($7,600; Starting P4) as a GPP play that nobody will target. He flashed outstanding speed in practice. But the starting spot will scare some people away. Maybe he has a Tyler Ankrum-esque performance in him.

Value Price Core Plays

Josh Williams ($7,400; Starting P32)

I’m writing up Williams but with some trepidation. Sure, he’s in good equipment and he offers position differential. But he was slow in practice and clearly didn’t back it up in qualifying. I’m fine playing him in Cash games, but if everyone flocks to him in Tournaments because of the Kaulig equipment I would want leverage and go underweight. I’m going to assume they’ll make unapproved adjustments and drop to the rear on the opening pace laps. But this is a bit of a concerning starting spot for a car that’s much better than this. He might get into the top 20 which is fine for Cash games, but we’ve also seen Josh Williams bust plenty of times before.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,000; Starting P37)

Alfredo’s the safer chalk I think I’d rather consume for this race. He starts further back than Williams and offers more position differential. Moreover, we saw him finished 10^th and 17^th in a pair of races at Vegas with this team in 2022. He had a strong showing last week and don’t forget, with BJ McLeod Motorsports last year, he did get the most out of his car at Vegas with a top 20. With Our Motorsports, I feel confident he can go out and get 30+ fantasy points in this race especially with the safety net of starting so far back.

Hailie Deegan ($6,100; Starting P28)

Hailie Deegan makes her first Xfinity Series Playbook of the year. Truthfully, I don’t love the play. I think her ceiling might be 18^th. But I also don’t share a ton of love with many drivers in this range. If I’m going to invest on Deegan on any type of track, it’s probably an intermediate like Vegas. She finished 17^th or better in four-of-six races at Kansas. She even managed to finish sixth at Kansas last spring, but she needed some chaos in that race to get her up there. But this is a “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile track that she did well on in previous years. There’s a path to 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings but not much more.

Kyle Sieg ($5,700; Starting P27)

In three-of-four races at Las Vegas, Sieg has finished top 20. And if you look at the practice results, his brother’s car had some outstanding speed and qualified P6. Kyle Sieg, like Deegan, probably doesn’t have a ton of upside. But I might trust his equipment over hers. He’s younger and lacks experience, but I’m looking for a little cheap PD in this range. Sieg did manage to finish 11^th and 12^th at Charlotte and Texas last year and he can pay off the price tag with a top 20 on Saturday. If you need an absolute punt for this race, I wouldn’t sleep on Blaine Perkins ($4,800; Starting P29) starting right behind Sieg. Perkins will also be driving for RSS Racing but that doesn’t necessarily mean the equipment is as good as Ryan’s or Kyle’s. He may need some help to get a top 20 but we also only need him to move up five spots to hit value.

The LiUNA! NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks