NASCAR DFS Playbook: Toyota 200

We’ve got the first playoff race for the Truck Series on Friday night and it’s a hell of a way to kick off the weekend. We only get ten drivers in the playoff field for the Truck Series. For reference, those drivers are John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, Ben Rhodes, Todd Gilliland, Sheldon Creed, Zane Smith, Matt Crafton, Carson Hocevar, Chandler Smith, and Stewart Friesen. Friday night’s race will not be in Michigan where the Xfinity and Cup series are racing. Instead, the Trucks are heading to the Illinois/Missouri border (basically St. Louis) to race at Gateway. This is a 1.25-mile egg-shaped track, just a little shorter than Darlington. We have 160 laps on tap for Friday night which leaves us with 112 dominator points. With cautions that number probably drops to 100-105 or so. So plenty of dominator points to go around and we have plenty of track data to consider for Friday night’s race. 

Take note, there will NOT be a competition caution in stage one of this race. So you better show up with the right setup otherwise you’re in trouble. The stages will be broken into 55-55-50 so relatively even throughout. This is also a later race than normal as green flag will drop at 9:10pm ET but this will be a fun race under the lights. There also will be controlled pit stops between stages since the Trucks are running Gateway and the XFIN and Cup pit crews are in Michigan. Without further ado, here are the drivers I’m targeting ahead of Friday night’s race.

Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,600; Starting P2) My lone concern with Nemechek is that he hasn’t raced here in three years and he’s not getting practice nor a competition caution on the off chance the team shows up with the wrong setup. But that could happen to anyone. And Nemechek’s still won five races this year and has been the best driver by far. So we can still have faith in JHN for Friday. The price tag is steep, but he’s on the front row and there are plenty of dominator points available. He won here in 2017 while leading 46 laps and he will need a hefty amount of dominator points to pay off the price tag. This is a track he can go out and put up 70+ points on DraftKings.

Sheldon Creed ($11,200; Starting P4) Another hefty price tag, but that’s what you’re going to get with 200 laps in play for dominator points. Creed won this race last year and finished seventh here in 2019. I wrote him up as a good betting value in the Best Bets piece and will target him for DFS. I’m likely not pairing him with JHN because that leaves you with $6,800/driver for your last four drivers and that’s kind of asking for trouble. I’ll be heavier on JHN but will likely aim for 15-20% exposure on Creed.

Zane Smith ($10,800; Starting P5) Smith always brings speed. Unfortunately, we just haven’t seen him collect dominator points like he did last year. In total he’s led just 47 laps across 15 races this year compared to 376 across 23 races last year. He finished top three in the first two stages a year ago while leading 45 laps. That being said he’s also finished fifth and seventh here in two races. The equipment is still elite and I like him for GPP’s considering he’ll carry less ownership than Creed and JHN. I like him, don’t love the DFS outlook this week though.

Grant Enfinger ($9,600; Starting P30) There are some things to love about Enfinger this week and some things we dislike. For instance, the equipment isn’t anything worth writing home about, hence why he’s starting so far back. He’s in the 9-truck for CR7 Motorsports and earlier in the year he was getting solid runs in this truck. However, at Pocono and Watkins Glen he finished outside the top 30 in this ride. So this isn’t a slam dunk by any means and you have to hope he rekindles the excitement from earlier in the year. He has three top tens in four races at Gateway and he has a pair of top five finishes at Darlington. Be disciplined with your exposure to Enfinger this week due to the equipment, but there’s plenty of PD on his side.

Todd Gilliland ($9,400; Starting P3) If Gilliland was starting on the front row this would be such a juicy GPP play. Alas, he’s starting P3 and could still go out there and lead a handful of laps. He’s very good here. Todd finished runner-up in 2018 and 2019 and was looking great last year after he won the first two stages and led 76 laps with 35 fastest laps. He was also doing pretty good at Darlington earlier in the year despite the P15 finish. So Todd likes these wonky egg-shaped tracks. I don’t think I’d go with him in Cash games, but you can certainly play around with exposure in GPP’s.

Ty Majeski ($9,000; Starting 25) Majeski has run three races this year with Thorsport’s 66-truck and he’s finished 14th, eighth, and seventh. In last year’s race he finished top ten at Gateway and truthfully we only really need a top 12 from him to hit value. Everything after that is gravy. He’s affordable with PD so he’ll be chalky. He’s viable in all formats.

Johnny Sauter ($8,400; Starting P20) Skip right on by if you’re sick of me writing about Johnny Sauter. I put him in the Best Bets article based on his track history and I know full well it was his track history that got me into trouble for DFS at Gateway one year ago. Seven straight finishes in the top four. Then he shows up here without practice and qualifying and he busts. That’s on me, I should’ve read into the P&Q narrative more. And similarly, we don’t get P&Q this week. But I still like the starting spot and the price tag. I’m hoping they took notes on last year’s debacle and have a better idea on how to properly get this ride ready. Earlier this year he had a great run at Darlington so I’m willing to give him a shot in GPP’s this week. I haven’t yet decided if I like him enough for Cash games, but I definitely like the PD on his side.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,200; Starting P13) Tyler Ankrum’s been clicking the last ten races. Has there been variance? Of course. But after a disastrous start to the year, he’s found his groove and has flashed that top ten potential, even top five potential. The price tag is a little high and he needs a top eight finish for value. So I don’t like him in Cash games, but I like him as a leverage play in GPP’s. He finished 14th at Darlington earlier this year and he grabbed a top 12 at Gateway one year ago. 

Derek Griffith ($7,800; Starting P11) Big error by me for not at least acknowledging Griffith when I originally published this article. You're pretty much paying for the equipment here. Griffith has run sporadically in the ARCA series the last couple years and has posted plenty of top tens in his career. He gets to step into the 51-truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports so getting Kyle Busch's ride at $7,800 is worth a look in GPP's.

Chase Purdy ($7,300; Starting P28) Prior to the dirt race at Knoxville over a month ago, Purdy had strung together some solid runs at Texas (17th), Nashville (15th), and Pocono (15th). The price has gone up, but $7,300 isn’t awful by any means and he’s still not exempt from accidents. Overall he’s failed to finish four of 15 races, but two of those were Daytona and the dirt race at Knoxville that got a little chaotic. The equipment is still strong with GMS so I’m okay with Purdy in both formats this week. I prefer him over the cheaper Jack Wood who has continuously let me down.

Taylor Gray ($7,100; Starting P26) I’m not quite sure how I feel about Taylor Gray this week. The 17-truck for DGR has had some solid performances, but that was with Cup Series drivers taking the wheel. Gray didn’t have a great showing at Watkins Glen, but it’s a road course and he might just prefer turning left. He rolls off P26 Friday night and I’m hoping he can just finish the race clean. There are some cheaper options I may prefer, but I’ll have some shares of Taylor Gray to differentiate my builds a bit.

Derek Kraus ($7,000; Starting P17) I feel much better about Kraus than I do Taylor Gray. He’s a more seasoned driver in this series who finished 13th here a year ago. We know Kraus has top ten upside where he can exceed 40+ points on DraftKings. However, he could also bust and ruin your build. For that reason, I don’t want to utilize him in Cash games. I’d limit exposure to just GPP’s and at no more than 20-25%.

Jake Griffin ($5,900; Starting P29) I'm adding Griffin to the mix because he's in the 45-truck for Niece Motorsports and that's a pretty solid ride. I don't know if there's a ton of upside but a top 20 is possible.

Tyler Hill ($5,600; Starting P27) So many Tyler’s, Ty’s, Tanner’s, and Taylor’s in Friday’s race it’ll be a spectacle if they all get in a wreck together. For DFS, we hope that’s not the case. Tyler Hill will drive the 56-truck Friday night and I love the price tag, as I’m sure most DFS players do. Last year he started P30 and finished 21st. He hasn’t flashed the top 15 upside he did last season, but in his last two races this year he’s moved up six spots each race. A top 20 would be great for his value and I think he probably finishes 17th-18th. Hill’s one of my favorite value plays this week.

Dawson Cram ($5,400; Starting P38) Cram is probably about as cheap as I wanted to go this week. He can’t kill you too much with PD since he’s starting P38 and he got a 22nd place finish in this truck last year. Cram’s worst finish this year is P31 which he’s done three times. If he can finish top 25 or even just move up ten spots, I’ll be content with that result. Given his price tag and starting spot, I don’t hate him for Cash contests.

Spencer Boyd ($4,900; Starting P32) Like I said just up above, I don’t want to go cheaper than Cram for Friday’s race. But if you’re forced to, Boyd might be my preferred punt. He needs just 25 points for value and there’s a path to him exceeding that. Last year he finished 25th and the year prior he finished 20th and he’s cheaper than normal this week and he offers PD so if your hand is forced, plug him in and hope he finishes 25th or better.

I will likely make some changes and some late additions to the Playbook so definitely check back on Friday afternoon for any changes. As always, they’ll be marked in red if there are any.

Core Drivers