NASCAR DFS Playbook & Top Picks: FireKeepers Casino 400

After a tumultuous week on an off the track, Michigan and the FireKeepers Casino 400 is here. The Irish Hills track always puts on a show for the horsepower lovers among us. This week is no different. The 2-mile D-shaped Oval outside of Brooklyn, Michigan is one of the more interesting tracks to breakdown all year. Why? We’ll get into that with the FireKeepers Casino 400 race trends and the NASCAR DFS strategy; that along with the tracks we’re comparing Michigan to and what the driver’s practice and qualifying results. When we put everything together it’ll narrow the pool of drivers down to the top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Michigan NASCAR Race Trends

There is a duality about Michigan that may not be apparent on first glance. Sure, it’s a 2-mile, low-tire-wear, oval that’s in the middle of the road, so to speak, in terms of banking. However, it compares to a variety of tracks we may not think about. Auto Club is sort of comparable for size but not for tire wear. Kansas, Vegas, Indy, Pocono, and Charlotte are the ones that are most similar to Michigan. However, there is one more that in the last two years has correlated well and that’s Richmond. I can’t tell you exactly why but finishes at Richmond and Michigan have been close to each other in both 2022 and 2023. That’s one of the dualities, it compares to shorter intermediates as well as longer flats. What’s the other duality? The way it races.

It races like a standard intermediate, though on the tougher end of the spectrum to pass, but some manufacturers do better here, in some ways, than others. When we look at the last five races at Michigan, among the top 10 drivers in terms of average running position there are only 3 Ford drivers. In the top 10 drivers in terms of laps led per race, there are only 2 Ford drivers. That being said though, Fords have won 10 of the last 13 races at Michigan. So watch for Fords to move up late and challenge for the win yet again.

In terms of how the last five races have turned out based on trends below, it’s a mix-and-match of other intermediates. Laps led are coming from the front of the field in general with an average of 69% of laps led from the top-10 starters. There’s also the fact that no one has led 100 or more laps in any of those races. We also see a similar trend of drivers being able to move up into the top-20 but have a hard time cracking the top-10 by races’ end.

DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average scoring on DraftKings over the last five races at Michigan based strictly on starting spots. It’s designed to show the strategy for the track as it doesn’t take into account the car, driver, team, nor why they started there..

FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average scoring on FanDuel over the last five races at Michigan based strictly on starting spots. It’s designed to show the strategy for the track as it doesn’t take into account the car, driver, team, nor why they started there.

FireKeepers Casino 400 Practice And Qualifying Results

The following table shows the practice and qualifying results from Saturday at Michigan. The session was rain-shortened for practice and cancelled for qualifying. The field was set by a metric used by NASCAR. Take the Practice to Qualifying column with a grain of salt this week due to the few laps run, lack of long runs, and no an actual qualifying session.

NASCAR DFS Strategy For Michigan

So with everything above, how are we building DFS lineups for Michigan? The first thing we need to think about is laps led since this is after all a big intermediate track. With 200 laps in the race, there are enough to have two different laps led dominators in the race, as is the trend here. We also have to realize that this is a track position track. The drivers who are starting in the top-10 are the likeliest to finish there, though with the field being set by metric, there might be more shifting than we normally see. Moving up here is possible if the pit strategy is gotten correct but passing into the top-10 under green is still hard even with the best pit strategy.

Tracks that are similar to Michigan are mainly Kansas, Vegas, Charlotte, and a bit of Indy Oval and Pocono for the horsepower. Then there’s the correlation with Richmond from the last two years in which drivers who’ve run well here ran well at Richmond in both races as well.

Top Driver Plays

Top Tier Drivers

Kyle Larson

Larson isn’t known as 2-mile-Kyle for nothing. He has three wins here and arguably should have more based on how many laps led he’s posted in the last 5 races. When we couple that with the speed he showed in the shortened practice and the speed he’s had basically every where, he should be in a position to lead a good amount of laps and challenge for a win.

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin was awarded the pole for Michigan after the wild finish at Richmond. The only concern with that? He ran the fewest laps on track of anyone in practice and wasn’t exactly lighting up the speed charts. That being said though, Hamlin has a strong history here with the most top-fives, fastest laps, and driver rating in the last five races. When we look at the correlation between Richmond and Michigan, Hamlin is strong there too. I trust he and Chris Gabehart to sort out whatever speed questions they may have.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex is going to be the most popular play in this range. Thanks to a blown engine last week, he’ll start P24 in the field with a very good history here. In the last 5 races here he’s got the second best average finish and Truex is hunting for a win. He’s not yet locked into the playoffs but will bring his speed and track success to bear to try and lock that win in while moving up through the field for DFS value.

Mid-tier Drivers

Joey Logano

The pressure is always on the Ford camp to win at Michigan thanks to Ford being located not far from the track. There’s also pressure on the Team Penske drivers since Penske used to own the track. For weeks, Logano has been the best Ford on the track and that shouldn’t change at Michigan either. That’s especially the case when we take into account how well Logano has done at the Richmond-Michigan double the last two years.

Chris Buescher

Speaking of the Richmond-Michigan double, Buescher pulled that off last year. He didn’t have to pull any Dillon shenanigans either. He had solid speed again last week at Richmond and has been consistently quick at the similar tracks over the last 2 years too. Expect the RFK team to give him the best setup possible this week knowing he needs a win for the playoffs and to avoid a scare like last week.

Ross Chastain

Chastain loved his car in practice, well the practice he got. The speed has usually been good here for him which has led to him being tied for second in the most laps led on average. Chastian finished P7 here last year. If he holds his spot this weekend and leads some laps in the meantime, there’s value here.

Alex Bowman

Bowman has been on my radar basically all week. He’s run very solidly here in the past as well as at similar tracks. Bowman posted a P9 here in 2022 but while he finished P33 in 2023, that was after leading 19 laps and developing a steering issue. Presuming the steering bugaboos stay away, the history of pushing up 9 top-10s in 14 similar races should hold true once more.

Value Tier Drivers

Erik Jones

This is Jones’ home track and that’s shown up with his performances here. Even with Legacy Motor Club struggling the last two years, Jones has back-to-back top-10 finishes. Now he’s in a Toyota which has been showing it’s speed on the larger intermediates most of this season. Over the last 14 similar races to, and including, Michigan, Jones has 7 top-15s and 9 top-20s while averaging a starting spot of 25th. He’s setup for a good PD day if his history holds true.

Ryan Preece

Preece seems like a short-track only guy but when we look at his Michigan history that supposition doesn’t hold true. In the last 4 Michigan races he’s posted a 21.0 average finish here and has moved up at least 6 spots every race and in a few he’s moved up double-digit spots. Given that he’s starting pretty far back in the field on Sunday, he’s in a spot to mimic those previous results at Michigan.

AJ Allmendinger

This has typically been a decent track for Allmendinger in the Cup series. In the last few races he’s run here, he’s averaged a finish around P25. That sets up well of PD upside with him starting in the last row thanks to the metric. It wasn’t a full practice but Allmendinger did have good speed in what was run and if it shows up, he shouldn’t stay in the last row for long.

Corey Lajoie

In the 15 similar races in the Next Gen era, Lajoie has eight top-20 finishes. While Michigan hasn’t been the best track for him, he has had consistent speed in recent races and does have some nice PD upside starting P31 on Sunday.

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