NASCAR DFS Playbook: Pocono Green 225

Pocono so far has been… Interesting. My only correct read so far has been playing light through the first double-header. But I’m attacking Sunday heavier for both Xfinity and Cup. Pit strategy, track position, long green flag runs, restarts on the front stretch have, and blown tires on the final lap have all led to some unpredictable results and I expect the same to hold true for Sunday’s races.

The Xfinity race is tapped for 90 laps (63 dominator points). What we’ve seen so far is that we can’t put our eggs in one basket for anyone to dominate the race. Truth be told, this is a better race to bet on than to get DFS exposure to. Assuming we have a handful of cautions tomorrow, we will not see 63 dominator points get distributed because DraftKings doesn’t reward fastest laps during yellow flags. It’s more likely we get 50-55 dominator points for the Xfinity race and they’ll likely be evenly distributed.

We’ve seen some bizarre incidents at the very beginning of these races. It happened in both races on Saturday and it led to some hair being pulled out on my end. Jack Wood and Johnny Sauter wrecked at the beginning of Saturday’s Truck series race, while Chase Elliott took some damage at the very beginning of Saturday’s Cup series race. So diversify your lineups as best as you can.

Driver Pool

Austin Cindric ($11,000; Starting P13) This is an easy spot. Cindric doesn’t even need dominator points to hit value but we certainly won’t say no to that either. Cindric has finished fourth, seventh, and 29th in three races here. The poor finish came last year in a wreck in stage three but he finished in the top two for the first two stages and was running very well. He’s an easy target in cash game lineups and you can easily pair him with the next driver.

Ty Gibbs ($10,800; Starting P14) Gibbs ran the ARCA race on Friday and in a shocking twist of events… He didn’t win. He’s very similar to Cindric this week in that he doesn’t need to necessarily collect dominate the race to hit value. Plus, you get a touch more PD for $200 less. He has five top five finishes in six races this year including a pair of wins. I’m honestly surprised Cindric and Gibbs aren’t a little more expensive.

Josh Berry ($10,200; Starting P33) If PD is what we seek, then Josh Berry is what we get. He’s not in the 8-car anymore with JR Motorsports. He’s back in the 31-car for Jordan Anderson Motorsports and he grabbed a top ten at this track at Mid-Ohio in the same car and he got some practice in the Truck series race where he finished 11th. At this price tag, without any dominator points, he needs to finish 12th basically for 5X value. I definitely think he can get there in this equipment especially since it’s a slightly shorter race, but part of me does wish he was a little bit cheaper. Beggars can’t be choosers so let’s move on…

Sam Mayer ($10,000; Starting P20) I’m really on the fence with Mayer. He’s making his Xfinity series debut since the school year is done (that’s kind of a joke) and he just turned 18 on Saturday (that’s actually not a joke, so Happy Birthday Samuel). You can play him for the birthday narrative, but also play him because he’s just a talented driver. At 17 years old he almost won at Gateway in the Truck series last year, but a couple weeks later he actually did go out and win at Bristol. So the talent is there and DK priced him up… Those jerks. If you’re seeking 5X value he needs to finish seventh, but I think there’s top five upside here. I just don’t know where I’m going to land in terms of ownership.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,500; Starting P3) I’ll never count him out, but he is more of a GPP play this week. Pocono’s three turns are all different and this track lends itself to Dinger’s expertise on road courses although these turns aren’t nearly as tight as they are on road courses. But a lot of people are going to try and squeeze multiple $10K drivers into their builds leaving Dinger under-owned. So as a leverage play I like what we can get from him in this spot. I may just limit exposure to three of my 20 builds.

Brandon Brown ($8,300; Starting P24) He’s priced up and for obvious reasons, he’s offering some PD this week. Brown has already set a career high in terms of top ten finishes and he only needs to crack the top 12 for value. Two years ago he started 27th and finished 13th at Pocono. Last year he had an issue with his oil tank and he didn’t even last ten laps. But he’s in the midst of a career year so I’m pulling for a strong day from him. 

Michael Annett ($8,000; Starting P8) If you’re only playing cash games feel free to scroll on by. This week Annett is strictly a GPP play. We can’t trust him starting this high for cash games because at best this is probably where he finishes. However, in four races here he’s finished fifth, eighth, 35th, and 13th. The finish outside the top 30 was due to a suspension issue. But last year, without practice and qualifying, he grabbed a top five finish, and his other two finishes aren’t so bad either. The price tag is a little high, but ownership is going to be incredibly low for Annett and if he gets another top five then he’s potentially in the optimal lineup.

Austin Hill ($7,500; Starting P15) Hill got to run Saturday’s Truck series race so he knows how the track will feel Sunday afternoon. Plus, he grabbed a top five in the truck race and he’s coming off a top ten at Nashville last week. For whatever reason, DraftKings dropped his price tag $400 and I doubt we see a ton of ownership here. 

Myatt Snider ($7,300; Starting P19) I think people are afraid to play Snider at this point. Coming into Pocono he has four straight finishes outside the top 25… That’s truly pathetic. It’s almost like he sold his soul to win earlier this year at Miami. But he did grab a top five last year at Pocono and this is purely a leverage play. He’s not expensive and he offers PD and nobody will play a guy who has posted negative points on DraftKings in four straight races.

Brett Moffitt ($6,700; Starting P17) DraftKings screwed up this price tag on Moffitt. Not nearly as bad as when they priced him at $5,700 for COTA and then he returned 40+ points, but this is still an error worth jumping on. Moffitt has 40-point upside but at the same time he’s put up some duds lately. But here’s the good news! Under the exact same circumstances a year ago he started 18th and finished seventh. He also finished seventh at last year’s Truck series race at Pocono so this is an intriguing play in GPP’s and he’s a borderline Cash game play if he runs clean.

Landon Cassill ($6,100; Starting P23) Cassill never seems to make me look good when I play him, but just hear me out. He’s $1,000 cheaper than he’s been the last couple weeks and I still maintain he has top 15 upside. With that said I’m just scrolling through his DK scores the last few weeks and I’m seeing numerous scores in the high 20’s, low 30’s. He really just needs to finish 18th for 5X value, but I’ll settle for a top 20 if I’m playing him.

Jade Buford ($5,900; Starting P29) We may run into some chalk here with Buford, but there’s still obvious risk. He did run in the ARCA race on Friday and prior to last week’s performance at Nashville he was riding high with four straight top 20 finishes. Play at your own risk, it’s no guarantee he makes it to the end despite the glaring PD.

Loris Hezemans ($4,600; Starting P39) If you need this cheap of a punt you can look at Hezemans. I don’t even know how to pronounce his name, but he can’t get you negative points so that’s a good jumping off point. He has a floor of zero points and if he finishes 29th that’s 5X value as hilarious as that sounds. A variety of drivers have pushed this car to a top 25 finish this year and we just need him to crack the top 30. Even if he finishes 31st that’s almost 4X value. The key here is he can’t get you negative points so I’m entertaining the possibility of heavy ownership.

I may add extra players in the morning based on how my lineups come together. As of Saturday, the above drivers are what I’m building around.

Core Drivers