After a wild weekend at Indianapolis we dial it down a little this week at Michigan International Speedway. The Camping World Truck Series gets a week off amidst their four-month playoff stretch so we’re gifted with only the NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series for this weekend. A.J. Allmendinger took home his third road course win of the season last week at Indy and we’re going to a track he dominated a year ago. However, the speed in the Kaulig cars was stronger a year ago compared to what we’ve seen from this team in 2022. The Jr. Motorsports cars will be popular on Saturday and it should be no surprise that Justin Allgaier and Noah Gragson are among the favorites to win this afternoon’s race. And as always, you can’t count out Ty Gibbs who has been making a case to get promoted to the Cup Series as he’s been filling in for Kurt Busch. We have a LOADED schedule on Saturday with practice & qualifying rolling very early this morning. Let’s dig into the NASCAR DFS picks for today’s race.

MIS is a big track, measuring roughly two miles in length so many folks may draw comparisons to Auto Club out in California. I don’t necessarily mind it, but keep in mind Auto Club is an older track that hasn’t been paved in a long time. Michigan has a newer surface and less tire wear. This track used to be known as a fuel milage race over anything else so pit strategy and track position are key, as well as making it to the end on fuel.

We only have about 87.5 dominator points to work with for this race. That’s not a lot, but still worth targeting. I do think that a two-dominator approach is how to go about lineup construction today. I’ll be going that route for probably 60% of my own builds, while deploying a single-dominator in 20%, and getting a little crazy with three-dominator builds with my remaining reservations. 

Driver Pool

Jr. Motorsports – It feels appropriate to just list them all because I have a hard time truly fading any of them at the moment. You’re always going to get win equity with Noah Gragson ($10,700), Justin Allgaier ($10,500), and Josh Berry ($10,300). Even Sam Mayer ($9,400) shows up with speed although the finishes are hard to come by for him. Here are four drivers that’ll get an update following qualifying and that’ll likely dictate exposure for them all. Allgaier might be the safest and most chalky option at the moment. Over his last 11 races he’s finished seventh or better in ten of them with 449 laps led and 254 fastest laps in that span. He’s averaging 20.59 dominator points per race in that span and that sample size includes three road courses. He’s yet to score a win at this track, but he has plenty of top tens and should run up front all day if he stays clean. Gragson has a very small sample size here. He’s started P4 in both his races at Michigan and finished second and third respectively, but he didn’t lead any laps in either race and his only true impressive performance the last two months was his win at Pocono. There’s still some win equity here but Allgaier has more momentum. For Berry, he started P15 here in 2021 and finished fourth. He has two wins on the year including Charlotte and he’s run up front a lot lately. We just haven’t seen a ton of dominator points from him since his win over Memorial Day Weekend. The price tag is going up on Berry but it always seems like nobody every wants to pay the premium so there’s still leverage. UPDATE: Gragson fasted in practice and won the pole, while Mayer and Allgaier were third and fourth respectively. Berry was 15th. Mayer will be chalky given the starting spot.

Ty Gibbs ($10,900) He’s always in play. I hope we’re clear on that going forward. Even on days he doesn’t make the Playbook, it doesn’t mean I don’t like him. Is he using this race as practice for Sunday’s Cup race? Ehh, maybe. But I highly doubt it. He’s still in the running for the Xfinity Series championship and obviously wants that on his resume. He made his Michigan debut here a year ago and had a driver rating of 108.6 but finished 13th. If you have a driver rating of 108.6, you had a much better day than finishing 13th and he even finished second in the first two stages. He’s looked solid on the intermediates this year with a win at Vegas and a runner-up at Charlotte. He’ll never not be in play given the win equity and his ability to collect dominator points.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,100) To the surprise of no one, Allmendinger collected his third win of the season last week and they’ve all come on road courses. Overall, the speed in the Kaulig cars has been a miss most weeks with the exception of Dinger on road courses. But he’s been safe for a top ten most weeks and he was absolutely dominant on this style of track in 2021. He won this race leading 70 laps a year ago. I’m going to assume he qualifies inside the top five, possibly on the pole. That’ll give him an easy path to early dominator points, and he could be optimal with a top ten finish if that’s the case. UPDATE: Second-fastest practice speed and starting on the front row next to Gragson.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,600) JHN isn’t in JGR equipment Saturday, but that doesn’t matter. Is this a premium to pay for Sam Hunt Racing equipment? Sure is! But we’ve seen him get a pair of top fives in this car and in four races this year he hasn’t finished worse than 18th. There isn’t much win equity here, but there is a top five and if he can offer some PD we can take advantage. He can get some dominators here, but I don’t feel as confident about that given that I’ll likely be heavy on the JRM cars. He was slow in practice but I’m putting my faith in the car having speed during the race. He'll likely be popular given the starting spot.

Brandon Jones ($9,200) I usually end up writing Jones up on his worst weeks so let that be a warning to you. His resume at Michigan is pretty nice: solid finishes and plenty of experience. He has four top ten finishes in five races here and that’s including a sixth in 2020 and a runner-up finish to Dinger in 2021. Jones has had some bad luck in recent months. He only has one top ten in his last nine races and I think most DFS players will look at this play and pass on by. And I get it, he’s always a risky play. But he’s a nice GPP play with leverage. If he comes with a ton of PD then he’ll easily be popular. But if he starts just outside the top ten then there’s leverage. UPDATE: Sixth-fastest in practice. I think we can go here.

Riley Herbst ($8,800) Herbst will probably be relegated to just Cash games as is the case most weeks. He has 13 top ten finishes in 2022 which is tied for fourth-most in the Series. That’s more than Ty Gibbs, Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, and Daniel Hemric. So there’s some consistency but not a ton of upside. He has about a 35-40 point floor which won’t get us anywhere near a takedown in a GPP, but it’s still fine for 50/50’s and Double Up’s. He’ll need a lot of PD to potentially be optimal or an uncharacteristic dominant performance which we just haven’t seen from him the last couple years. He’s a candidate for a good finish, but for DFS purposes he could be a bit bland. He did finish seventh here a year ago and he’s had success on non-drafting intermediate tracks this year. UPDATE: Tenth fastest in practice.

Sheldon Creed ($8,600) It’s painful to write Creed up because he always seems snake bitten whenever he appears in this particular Playbook. However, he’s shown speed lately and the finishes have been getting better. Creed was running in the top five in last week’s road race in Indianapolis before he got into some bumping with Allgaier as he was getting passed and then he was inevitably spun by Ross Chastain. But the speed and the results are improving from where we were at earlier in the season. He was top 12 at Pocono, New Hampshire, and Atlanta entering last week and he still looked great despite the poor finish. He was top 15 in practice speed. I do have a little interest in his teammate, Austin Hill, who starts a little deeper in the field. 

Sammy Smith ($8,400) We can all assume Sammy Smith’s car will be fast on Saturday (he was eighth-fastest in practice). It’s a JGR car and he’s had speed in his previous two races. He’s had arguably a top ten car on race day, but the end results have been poor due to some late wrecks and that’s also impacted his average running position. But still, the car has been fast. We just need to see him put it all together. We’re getting some of the best equipment at just an average price tag. 

Kaz Grala ($7,800) Grala’s results have been poor. He’s run six races this year and half of them have been in the 48-car for Big Machine Racing. This is a good ride. We saw it score a win with Tyler Reddick earlier this year. Is Kaz Grala on the level of Reddick? Hell no. But we also know that Grala is better than where he’s been finishing and I don’t even care about his results at Auto Club, Vegas, and Phoenix because those were with Alpha Prime. And I keep trying to tell myself that’s not a dog fart team, but they keep proving me wrong whether it’s the part-time drivers they bring in or just crap equipment. But this 48-car is better than Alpha Prime. Grala was fantastic leverage last week at Indy before some nonsense broke loose in stage three. I can’t remember if he spun, had a flat, or was penalized on pit road. Doesn’t matter, whatever happened to him killed my best lineups. I consider this a little discount on Grala, but not massive. Ownership will still likely come in low unless he takes a nap during qualifying.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,300) If anyone’s wondering why Jeb Burton ($7,500) didn’t get featured, it’s not that I don’t like Jeb. But he’s had some terrible luck. Look at last week, his car was dead before the race even started and he was an absolute bargain last week. With Alfredo, I know we can get some top 15 equity here which he’s done in almost half his races. My one concern is that he’s wrecked in four of the last nine races. That’s mostly why I’m hesitant to go very heavy and will likely see how he looks in practice. Practice and Qualifying might change my position on both Alfredo and Burton so check back for updates.

Myatt Snider ($7,100) Nothing too flashy about Snider. He flirted with top 15 speed in practice and there’s some top 20 upside. He started 34th and finished 21st at Vegas, then started 33rd and finished tenth at Charlotte. Don’t take those results as scripture. He has wrecked in two of his last five races. UPDATE: Don't love the starting spot, but think it's okay. He still has a path to being optimal.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,900) Nice. Weatherman went out and posted a top 12 practice speed. Can that translate in the race? Maybe, but I’d prefer a little PD out of him. We know he’s a decent driver who is usually put in pretty bad equipment. In this 34-car he’s finished 16th at Martinsville, 12th at Darlington, 8th at New Hampshire, and 19th at Pocono. There are some poor finishes in there as well, but if the speed holds up there’s top 20 upside. UPDATE: Qualified P8 which is incredibly high. If he hold this spot he'll be optimal but that's asking a lot.

Blaine Perkins ($5,900) Just a heads up. Most of this write-up on Perkins was done Friday night before his disastrous Saturday morning. Perkins will make his 2022 Xfinity Series debut with Our Motorsports in the 02-car after Brett Moffitt was unceremoniously booted from the ride. This is a borderline top 20 car but Perkins may not have the floor/ceiling of Moffitt. For him to pay off the price tag we’ll need some PD to fall back on. Perkins isn’t great but keep in mind this is similar equipment to Jeb Burton and Anthony Alfredo who are both priced above $7,000. Perkins is more of a GPP play either way. His ceiling might be a top 20 finish and if there’s some bad luck baked into Saturday’s race then it’s likely more probable that he finishes outside the top 20. UPDATE: Perkins was wildly slow in practice so this might be a very underweight play in my opinion. He didn’t make a qualifying lap due to a mechanical issue. He’ll still run the race but starting very deep in the field. Do not get too much exposure here. The PD is nice, but the speed and mechanical issue are deeply concerning.

Josh Bilicki ($5,400) Bilicki might be a couple hundred bucks too cheap. But he’s run four races this year and finished all over the spectrum. But he did finish 13th in this Alpha Prime car last week and he’s back in it once again. I’m still a little weary of playing him if he qualifies that well, but at this price tag and given the equipment (yes, I know I’m still too optimistic about this team), then I think he’s in play. He’s more likely to finish outside the top 20 than inside it so let’s see where he qualifies. I do like the pair of drivers Alpha Prime called for this weekend’s action. UPDATE: Bilicki’s practice speed was just outside the top 20 so the car looks prepped and ready at least.

Other Value Options To Consider: At first glance, there aren’t too many punts that stand out aside from the usual targets. I’ll have exposure to Ryan Ellis ($4,900) and Bayley Currey ($5,100) if the starting spot is helpful for DFS. Ellis hasn’t been great this year but he has an average starting spot of 30.8 and an average finish of 23.0 and that includes a pair of top 15 finishes on intermediates like Vegas and Charlotte. But he has failed to finish three of his eight races. Currey’s overall finishing averages aren’t as great as Ellis, but Currey has put up 30+ points on DraftKings in 40% of his races this year. Neither will light up the practice runs, they’re strictly PD plays if starting deep enough in the field. If you need to absolutely target the cheapest driver in the field, Josh Williams ($4,500) could pay off. Williams isn’t elite, nor is he in the best equipment. However, he’s not the worst driver in the field. He’s had a mechanical issue in nearly one-third of his races and the only race he actually wrecked out of was Daytona. At this price tag, I’d be content with just 20 DraftKings points. In my opnion, he should probably fall in the low-$5K range, not $4,500. He went out Saturday morning and posted a top 20 practice speed.

Core Plays

Core Plays for Saturday’s race will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel around 2:30pm ET.

 

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