It’s been a hot minute since we’ve seen the Camping World Truck Series in action. The last time out we saw Matt DiBenedetto score the win at Talladega. Unfortunately, he’s not a playoff driver so while that race was a nice payday for Rackley W.A.R. it didn’t have big implications on the truck series playoffs. But Saturday afternoon gives us the penultimate race of the 2022 Camping World Truck Series season. It seems crazy to think the Truck Series playoffs started three months ago but we’re getting closer and closer to Championship Weekend in Phoenix! Currently, Ty Majeski is the only driver locked into the championship race in the desert. But with Saturday afternoon’s race in South Florida looming large, there are seven drivers looking to punch their ticket to race for a championship. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Baptist Health Cancer Care 200!

 

Saturday afternoon’s race comes under some unique circumstances. For starters, the Trucks did run a full practice session. But I don’t really buy into short practice sessions at a track like Homestead-Miami. This is a high tire-wear track so I don’t care about ten-lap runs as much as I do 20-to-30 lap runs. Matt and I briefly discussed this on this week’s NASCAR DFS Podcast, but what good is a short run practice session when we have a high tire wear track? Give me the drivers that can manage tires. Short runs be damned! But I’ll digress for now… We did get a practice session in. However, qualifying was cancelled so the starting order was set by the dreaded “metric” and we have plenty of drivers to discuss in the driver pool.

Saturday’s race is set for 134 laps, which is a fair amount for the Truck Series. Given that information, the stages will be broken into 30-30-74 lap segments. Now keep in mind, this is high tire wear and there are stage points at stake. If there’s a long green flag run there will be drivers that stay out for the valuable stage points. But there will also be drivers that strategize and take tires before the stage breaks so they can gain track position after each break. 

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Top Plays

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300; Starting P13)

It’s a tall price to play for JHN, but he does have PD and dominator potential. JHN is currently not in the playoff picture for the final four. He only has two wins this year compared to last year’s five. In four races here in the Truck Series he’s never finished worse than 15th and he was seventh last year with a 101.4 driver rating. We can also hang our hat on the fact, he was pretty good on other high tire wear tracks earlier in the year. It also doesn’t hurt that his car showed signs of being better in the long run as well. He won Darlington in the Spring and he was second at Richmond. Dominator potential, PD, and there’s extra motivation for a win? Sign me up.

Ryan Preece ($10,500; Starting P1)

I don’t have a problem making the presumption that Ryan Preece is Cash game eligible on the pole. If we’re going to look at “practice” then he was eighth-fastest in ten-lap averages. But I don’t really care about that. He’s a veteran from the Cup Series. Do I think he goes wire-to-wire for the win? No. Do I think he can lead the first stage and finish top five? Sure do! He’s run nine races this year and finished 11th or better in all of them. He’s run a part-time schedule this year but he comes in with four straight finishes in the top four. Update: Preece will start at the rear following unapproved adjustments but he'll be scored from P1. He's likely a fade now.

Ty Majeski ($10,200; Starting P18)

Majeski is a pretty tough read. From a racing and DFS standpoint he’s perfectly fine. He’s starting P18 and has top five potential with a little win equity. The problem is that he’s already locked into the Championship race at Phoenix, so what does he really have to race for? For money and points? Sure, but he can coast to Phoenix. Personally, I’m pulling for him to win the championship because he’s been such a great comeback story for this series. He finished fourth at Darlington and third at Richmond. I have all the faith in the world that he can manage his tires here and I want to subscribe to the theory that he’ll run hard for the win, but there are other drivers more desperate for the win that’ll do anything to move on.

Corey Heim ($10,000; Starting P19)

Everybody’s favorite Tournament play! He’s either finishing in the top ten or outside the top 25. There’s really no in between with this guy. I will say given the DFS prospects of Enfinger, Crafton, and Hocevar most DFS players may not try to pay up for Crafton when you can get significant savings with the other three drivers. Heim may be in the best ride in the field and he’s a driver on the rise. There’s dominator potential if he can get to the front, but he doesn’t have any experience at Homestead.

Christian Eckes ($9,700; Starting P5)

Eckes is potentially going to be a popular dominator in Tournaments. he was “fast in practice” and all that crap that doesn’t really matter. But he’s had speed all year. He should always have speed. He drives for ThorSport. I struggled with deciding between Eckes or Ben Rhodes. I think I trust Eckes a little more on a high tire wear surface. Rhodes is the defending series champion so don’t completely leave him out of your own player pool. This is a great track for Eckes. The Trucks didn’t race here in 2021, but in 2019 and 2020 Eckes finished third and eighth here leading 15+ laps in each race. He logged a driver rating over 100 in each race and he was the fastest in practice in single lap speed and was top five in the long run. 

Grant Enfinger ($9,000; Starting P23)

Here’s what you have to love about Enfinger for Saturday’s race… It’s ALL OR NOTHING. Christian Eckes, Stewart Friesen, and John Hunter Nemechek are all within five points of the cut line. Enfinger? He’s almost 30 points below the cut line. He needs a win to race for a championship in Phoenix. The cancellation of qualifying hurts, but from a DFS perspective I love knowing that he knows he’ll need track position late in the race, and strategy is something his team specializes in. From 2017-2019 Enfinger logged three straight top eight finishes including a runner-up at Homestead. He had logged four straight top five finishes prior to Talladega earlier this month and he was top five at both Darlington and Richmond.

Carson Hocevar ($8,800; Starting P22)

Hocevar’s knocked out of the playoffs, but I do still think there’s win equity here. He flirted with a win a few times this year, but it just hasn’t presented itself to him. The concern is that he’s never raced Homestead before. However, he did finish as the runner-up at Darlington in the Spring with a 127.9 driver rating and he was top ten earlier in the year at Richmond. Based on that, I think he can manage tires pretty well. He’s not a lock by any means and possibly someone to pivot off of in Cash games because of his unfortunate luck. But there’s clear upside in terms of PD and one that I don’t mind for Tournaments.

Matt Crafton ($8,600; Starting P20)

Something has to be said for the veteran experience for a driver like Crafton, right? He won here in dominating fashion way back in 2015, but he has seven straight finishes in the top ten at this track. Earlier this year he finished fifth at Darlington and seventh at Richmond. Given that I’ve said all year he’s good for a top ten, and that’s about it, I think we can jump on the price tag and starting spot for Cash games. He easily hits value with a top ten and he’s flirting with 6X value if he finishes seventh with a couple dominator points.

Tanner Gray ($7,700; Starting P25)

Gray’s DFS value actually benefits from the cancellation of qualifying. He’s typically a driver that qualifies between P15 and P18. But since the starting order was determined by the metric, we can take advantage of the elevated floor Gray is offering with more PD. In two races at Homestead, Gray has finished 12th and 16th gaining at least eight spots of PD in each race. He has just one top ten in his last 11 races, so he doesn’t have the best ceiling, but I do like the floor if he can finish 18th or better.

Max Gutierrez ($7,500; Starting P31)

Gutierrez steps in for Austin Wayne Self this weekend and while the price is elevated, I think it’s worth paying for the PD and a potential top 20. He’s a bit inexperienced, which is a gamble and if you would rather pay for experience in this range, I wouldn’t fault you. Spending the extra $200 for Tanner Gray isn’t an awful idea. Strangely, I’d prefer him in GPP’s because in Cash games I think you can build a more reliable “floor” lineup without him in it, but I think there’s upside in Tournaments.

Bret Holmes ($7,000; Starting P17)

By setting the starting order by the Metric, Holmes has to roll off P17 and start higher than normal. Holmes started outside the top 25 at Vegas, Texas, Richmond, and Kansas and finished 17th or better in all four races. He’s posted 35+ points in four straight races and came oh so close to winning at Talladega. Given the starting spot, we may have some leverage if the DFS community doesn’t think he can move up. Holmes shapes up to be a decent Tournament play, but he does need to finish about 13th or better.

Stefan Parsons ($6,000; Starting P29)

I am a little bias because part of this is based on the success he’s had with Alpha Prime lately in the Xfinity Series. He tends to get the most out of his equipment. Do I like him enough for Cash games? Ehhh a little undecided, but he’s in the discussion. He finished 22nd in this truck at Nashville. In awful equipment in the Xfinity Series at Homestead, he hasn’t done much. But in September at Darlington, he did grab a top 20 in slightly better equipment. Buying into Parsons is buying into the driver, not the equipment for this race.

Tyler Hill ($5,700; Starting P36)

I have a Tyler Hill problem, I admit it. And it’s not like I get wrapped up in the recognition of the last name in these lower series. But Hill just offers a pretty decent floor. Also, he’s starting dead last. He cannot get you negative points. For that reason, he’s an easy play in Cash games since his floor is literally five points for this race. I’d be happy if he finished 27th or 28th. He will be popular, that’s not a surprise. In five races this year he does have three top 25 finishes. It’s nice that he was top 20 in his single lap speed, but he only ran six laps in practice and we haven’t seen him run too many high tire wear tracks, but he did finish 23rd at Homestead back in 2019.

Blaine Perkins ($5,000; Starting P30)

If you aren’t putting your money or faith in the cheap Niece Motorsports drivers then we likely shouldn’t be dipping lower than Perkins at $5,000. Perkins has been pretty terrible in the playoff races that he’s competed in. But he doesn’t have a top 25 in his last seven races. He’s $5K on DraftKings so if playing him I’d hope he somehow finishes 24th and you take the 20 points for 4X value. That’s not great, but it’s serviceable for a cheap pay down. Otherwise, this is a very risky DFS play.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

I know I alluded to example lineups in the NASCAR DFS Podcast, but I’m just settling on Core Drivers for both races on Saturday. The Truck Series Core Drivers will be post in the NASCAR DFS Discord by Noon ET.

 

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