NASCAR DFS Playbook Baptist Health Cancer Care 200: Top DraftKings Picks

We’ve made it to the penultimate race of the 2023 Craftsman Truck Series season. We head to South Florida for one of the absolute best tracks on the schedule. It’s a shame we have to wait this long to see Homestead on the schedule. But this is a pivotal race Saturday afternoon. It’s the final race that will set the field for the Championship in Phoenix in two weeks. Corey Heim, the winner at Bristol from mid-September, is the only driver locked in to race for the title. Zane Smith, the reigning series champion, and Ty Majeski likely need to win this race to qualify for Phoenix. Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger are within five points of the cutoff line while Carson Hocevar, Christian Eckes, and Nicholas Sanchez are currently in based on points. Homestead always produces great racing and we have a doubleheader on Saturday so let’s take a look at the top drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Baptist Health Cancer Care 200!

Homestead-Miami Speedway is the final intermediate race on the schedule. This track is 1.5 miles in length but unlike previous 1.5-mile tracks, this track is a perfect oval. There are multiple grooves at this track and those who can run the high line along the wall will likely carry plenty of momentum around the track. However, those drivers run the risk of getting into the wall and sustaining damage. Additionally, Homestead has immense tire wear and it will come into play for this race.

In this race a year ago we saw three different drivers lead at least 25 laps and overall, we didn’t see too many drivers gain a lot of position differential. Only six drivers gained at least 10 spots of PD and only one driver, Ty Majeski, gained 15+ spots of PD after he started P18 and won the race. This race is set for 134 laps broken into 30-30-74 lap segments and it’ll go green at 12:12pm ET. This Playbook is set in stone; no updates needed since we had practice and qualifying Friday afternoon. How did everyone look? I have absolutely no clue. It wasn’t televised. And that sucks. But here are the practice notes per our NASCAR lord and savior, Bob Pockrass, and let’s take a look at the top drivers for Saturday’s action.

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Ty Majeski ($11,000; Starting P4)

As mentioned at the top, Majeski won this race a year ago and I actually like that he’s in desperation mode. He’s 19 points below the cutoff line so he’ll need stage points and a strong finish. If he wins, that automatically locks him into the next round. He led 67 laps with 43 fastest laps in his win last year. He doesn’t come in with a ton of momentum. His team was caught cheating early in the playoffs and he hasn’t led a lap since IRP back in August. He rolls in with three straight finishes outside the top 15. As far as practice speed goes, he laid down the third-fastest single lap but was 16^th in 10-lap averages. I will say this, since we didn’t have eyes on the practice session, I’m not investing much in the 10-lap averages. Most drivers ran their fastest 10-lap average within their first 10 laps. We don’t have a ton of data of who may have pit or made slight adjustments. But I’m going to run with Majeski because he needs this win.

Zane Smith ($10,500; Starting P7)

Smith finished second to Majeski in last year’s race but led 26 laps and was pretty much running first or second through all three stages. Zane hasn’t won a race since COTA in March. He has just one top 10 finish in his last four races. It really has been a bit of a disappointing season after he won the championship a year ago. We haven’t heard his name too much, but he likely won’t point his way into the championship race. He absolutely needs to win this race to move on. Considering he knows what he needs to do he’ll be strategizing for the win. I don’t know if he’ll necessarily lead laps early on. I think he’ll be trying to properly strategize to have track position in stage three to put himself in position to win. I wouldn’t play him in Cash games but he’s fine for Tournaments because he put up the fastest speeds in practice.

Christian Eckes ($10,300; Starting P10)

I’m skipping over Carson Hocevar. It’s not that I don’t like him, I do. But he’s starting P2 and he’s actually in good standing with points where he just needs a good finish. Does he want to win? Sure. Everyone does. But Hocevar just needs to not wreck and he’s probably in good shape. Eckes is just nine points to the good for the next round. On top of that, we have an elite driver offering some PD as well. He’s finished eighth or better in three races at Homestead and he’s led 43 laps total in those three performances. He’s been one of the best drivers in this package so he should naturally move up. He can still point his way in with stage results and a great overall performance, but we know he has win equity.

Ben Rhodes ($9,600; Starting P21)

Rhodes is an easy Cash game play if you can fit him in. He’s a bit behind the 8-ball based on how qualifying shook out. But he hasn’t been the greatest qualifier this season. He’s five points out of the championship race and you know he’s hungry to get back there after winning the 2021 Truck Series championship. Rhodes had a great showing at this race a year ago. He started P2 and finished sixth but led 37 laps with a 111.9 driver rating. The PD and equipment alone have him jumping off the page at us as an obvious play. 

Nick Sanchez ($9,300; Starting P1)

Sanchez is no stranger to starting on the front row. In the 22 races so far this year, he’s started on the front row for nine of them. He’s also trending well with three straight top 10 finishes and this is considered his home track since he’s a South Beach kid. Now let’s not forget, he and Matt Crafton had some issues following the last race at Talladega. 

Poor choice of words on Sanchez’s part, but hopefully he’s turned his attention away from pre-meditated murder to winning this race. If he wins, he moves on to race in Phoenix. Sanchez is only three points above the cut line so he definitely needs all the points he can get. But starting on the pole will draw exposure to him. He’s done very well leading laps early when he’s on the front row and this track is no different for him.

Trevor Bayne ($8,500; Starting P32)

Bayne is the most obvious chalk that ever was chalk. The equipment isn’t awful but he did have a transmission issue in practice. He’s in the 25-truck for Rackley W.A.R.; this is the truck Matt DiBenedetto ran all season. Said transmission issue kept him from qualifying. He was also only able to run three laps so we are running a little risk with playing Bayne. When this ride is at full strength, it’s arguably a top 15 ride so he’s a tough fade in this spot.

Matt Crafton ($8,300; Starting P22)

So long as Crafton isn’t getting murdered by Nick Sanchez, he’s shaping up to be an okay DFS play for this race. The one thing we can feel good about with Crafton is experience. He’s raced here 21 times in his career. He’s even finished in the top 10 in his last eight races at Homestead. A top 10 is certainly viable for him in this race. He’s a veteran. He knows the importance of strategy and maintaining tires in a race like this. Intermediates have been his best tracks this year so while he’s not in his prime, he’s still a good play for this race in both Cash games and Tournaments.

Bayley Currey ($7,700; Starting P17)

I know we can’t really take a lot away from practice and qualifying. However, Currey was seventh-fastest in single-lap speed and was top five in 10-lap average. We know there’s top 10 equity with this play and  he arguably has a little top five equity as well. He’s in Niece Motorsports equipment so it’s comparable to Carson Hocevar’s truck and this organization seems to have nailed the setup for this race. He’s a fringe Cash game play but much better in Tournaments. Currey has only run Homestead once and it was way back in 2017 where he finished 28^th. But he’s raced here previously in the Xfinity Series having finished 13^th last year with JD Motorsports.

Marco Andretti ($7,500; Starting P27)

Andretti will be a popular play on Saturday. I think he’s fine for Cash games but honestly this could be a spot to avoid in Tournaments. He’s affordable, in decent equipment (Spire Motorsports), and he offers PD. That’s perfectly fine to play in Cash games. But because of all those reasons, I may aim to be underweight in Tournaments, which are all I’m playing on Saturday. Andretti ran Mid-Ohio earlier this year and finished 19^th after starting P7. According to the practice notes, this truck was dreadfully slow in the longer run. I’m only playing three lineups on Saturday. He won’t be in any of them, but I’m more than fine playing him as a PD option in Cash games.

Jake Garcia ($7,300; Starting P15)

It’s a shame that Garcia won’t return to MHR next year, as was announced within the last week. He’s had a solid year, but obviously when you have Christian Eckes in contention for a championship, the expectations are high for this organization. Garcia certainly has top 12 equity and he’s surprised with some very impressive finishes in the top five. The bigger concern with Garcia is how well he can manage his tires. The truck had top 15 speed, but it’ll be a different animal when it comes to the race. But I also don’t anticipate that he’ll have a ton of exposure so I love the play from a contrarian perspective. If you aren’t as sold on Jake Garcia, then consider Tyler Ankrum ($7,100; Starting P16). He’s a similar price point but helps to expand your player pool.

Dean Thompson ($6,700; Starting P5)

I get it. Thompson makes absolutely no sense. Well you know what? NASCAR DFS makes zero sense sometimes! He’s a value play starting in the top five and from the looks of it, Niece Motorsports brought some fast trucks for this race. If you notice in the practice notes, Thompson was actually second-fastest in single lap speed and he was fourth in 10-lap average. And he backed all that up with a top five qualifying effort. Is it likely that he goes backward? Yes. We’ve seen him bust plenty of times. However, the truck appears to be pretty damn fast. He made his debut here a year ago when he finished 22^nd but he did grab a top 10 at Darlington earlier in the year which is a similar high tire wear track.

Colby Howard ($6,400; Starting P24)

Another week, another race where I’m likely fighting back tears as I ask myself why I played Colby Howard in DFS. Howard was 13^th in single lap speed in practice, but top 10 in 10-lap average. And then he went out and qualified P24. To be fair, he’s awful at qualifying. He actually finished 13^th here last year so as long as the equipment holds up there’s certainly upside. He did finish 17^th earlier this year at Darlington and he has experience across Trucks and Xfinity so I won’t completely write him off. But on the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if he crushed my soul in this race. Feelings be damned, I’ll still play him.

Hailie Deegan ($6,000; Starting P20)

It’s not the best starting spot for Deegan. And truthfully, she might be checked out from this whole series as she moves up to the Xfinity Series in 2024. Deegan posted the 14^th-fastest lap in practice but it doesn’t look like she registered a consecutive run of 10 laps. She grabbed a top 20 in this race last year, but she also started quite high for that race. Ultimately, we have a driver at $6,000 in great equipment that may just sneak into the top 15 out of nowhere.

Mason Maggio ($5,400; Starting P29)

Maggio wasn’t electric in practice but he’s in the 22-truck for AM Racing. In this price range, this equipment isn’t awful compared to other drivers and I do like that he offers some PD from this spot. It’s not a home run but you just kind of hope that he can keep the truck clean and move up while other PD plays wreck out, and hopefully Colby Howard isn’t one of the drivers to get crushed. This might be a top 25 ride that can potentially finish 22^nd so you just hope for a clean race.

Brad Perez ($5,000; Starting P18)

Why not throw another home track driver into the Playbook? Brad “Bread” Perez is a South Florida native with some part-time Truck Series experience. Now he is in the 02-truck for Young’s Motorsports and he’s far from a slam dunk because he starts inside the top 20. But this is his home track and he’s talked about how much it means to him to run well here. This is just a GPP-only play and considering I’m only playing three lineups in this race, I’m not sure I’m going to end up playing him because of the starting spot. If you wanted a “safer” play then just pivot to his teammate, Spencer Boyd, who starts P30 and saves you $200.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers