NASCAR DFS Playbook Ambetter Health 200: Top DraftKings Picks

With a couple unknown, high variance tracks behind us with the Chicago Street Course and Atlanta Motor Speedway, we can finally dig deep into a track that we have plenty of data to go off of. The NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series head to New England for some short track racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Historically this is a track that Christopher Bell has flat out dominated and won, but he’s not entered in Saturday’s Xfinity race. Could we see another Joe Gibbs Racing driver like John Hunter Nemechek or Sammy Smith score a win here? Or could a driver from Jr. Motorsports break through and secure a win this weekend? Let’s take a look at the track history and practice notes for Saturday’s Ambetter Health 200 as we begin to construct our NASCAR DFS lineups.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat track measuring 1.058 miles in length. There is progressive banking ranging from two-to-seven degrees in the turns, but just one degree of banking in the straights. It’s a very flat track so we know which teams and drivers should thrive on this type of track. 

Track data is a little difficult to look at specifically for New Hampshire. In 2018 and 2019, Christopher Bell dominated here. He led both races and led a combined 279 laps with a perfect driver rating of 150 in one of those races. Then in 2020 they didn’t race New Hampshire because of COVID protocols, but when they came back in 2021, Bell once again dominated this race leading 151 laps with a driver rating of 149.2 so we can still look at drivers that finished well in those races. But dominator data is a bit skewed because Bell is so damn good here.

The race a year ago was far more balanced without Bell in it. In fact, nine different drivers led at least ten laps including five drivers that led at least 17 laps. Justin Allgaier, Trevor Bayne, and Landon Cassill all had at least 11.45 dominator points and finished in the top five. Last year’s race saw a bit of chaos as well, which is par for the course with Xfinity. Drivers like Brandon Brown, Jeremy Clements, Kyle Weatherman, Mason Massey, Bayley Currey, David Starr, Joe Graf Jr., and C.J. McLaughlin all finished in the top 15 while Sam Mayer, A.J. Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, William Byron, Daniel Hemric, Brandon Jones, and Josh Berry did not. So it definitely seems like the chaos the Xfinity Series is known for was turned up to 11 a year ago. I’d like to say we see a regression to the mean this year, but I wouldn’t bank on that. This is a short, flat track so any car spinning or getting into the wall may bring out a quick caution. Eight of the last ten winners in the Xfinity Series at New Hampshire have started on the front row and, in general, a lot of dominator potential might come from the first three-to-four rows.

Here’s the really good news for Saturday’s race. This is the same tire combination from last year’s race and it’s the same combination from Phoenix and Richmond from this year so we can pull data from those tracks as well. We had practice and qualifying late Friday afternoon so the practice notes, drivers, and NASCAR DFS Core Plays are all set in stone for this afternoon’s action. As always, I’ll be in the NASCAR DFS Discord Saturday morning and up until roster lock for this race in case you have any questions! Best of luck in constructing your winning NASCAR DFS lineups for the Ambetter Health 200!

Ambetter Health 200 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P2)

JHN collected his third win of the season last weekend, but it’s the performance on short, flat tracks that I’m more interested. In this tire combination at Phoenix he started P6 and finished fourth with 12.4 dominator points and then at Richmond he finished second with 48.15 dominator points. He also won at Martinsville with 198 laps led so given the early-season data and the fact that JGR dominates this style of racing, I’d say JHN’s a solid candidate to get out in front and dominate this race. He’ll start second on Saturday and all three of his wins this season have come when he’s started P2.

Justin Allgaier ($10,800; Starting P4)

Over the last three races at New Hampshire, he’s finished first, second, and third with 47 laps led in last summer’s winning effort. He’s also posted a driver rating over 115 in each of those three New Hampshire races. Allgaier was running top ten at Phoenix in the Spring before he got into a wreck but still managed to collect a handful of dominator points early on and would’ve scored better if he didn’t wreck. Allgaier has finished third or better in eight of the 17 races this year and is probably the most reliable Jr. Motorsports driver at the moment.

Cole Custer ($10,400; Starting P6)

Prior to practice and qualifying, I didn’t have too much interest in Custer heading into this weekend. He’s had okay results in the Xfinity Series at New Hampshire, but really he was one of those drivers that just fell victim to Christopher Bell’s domination here in previous races. But his car was fast in practice on Friday. He posted the second-fastest single lap and had the best ten-lap average as well. He comes into New Hampshire with 11 straight top ten finishes with eight finishes in the top five.

Sammy Smith ($10,200; Starting P7)

Smith scored a win at Phoenix in the Spring in dominating fashion. With a driver rating of 148.6 and 41.45 dominator points, he absolutely blew away the competition on this tire combination. He’d start on the front row at Richmond and collected nearly 15 dominator points but finished 19^th. It’s been almost three months since we’ve really seen Smith have the ability to dominate a race, but the Xfinity Series hasn’t visited too many short, flat tracks in the last couple months. It will be his debut at this track but I’m not too concerned about that since it’s not a huge departure from other flat tracks on the schedule and he did manage to post the fastest single lap in practice.

Chandler Smith ($9,900; Starting P1)

I’m going to give Chandler Smith some love because he’s on the pole so there’s some dominator appeal with this play. Do I love the fact that John Hunter Nemechek is next to him on the front row with three Jr. Motorsports drivers behind him? Not particularly, but he still had good speed in practice and it’ll be difficult to get out in front of the drivers starting on the front row. So while I don’t necessarily think he wins, he has a chance to lead the entire first stage. I’d still have money on JHN getting around him and winning the first stage, but we can’t rule Smith out as an early dominator for tournaments. 

Sheldon Creed ($9,000; Starting P17)

He wrecked last week after working his way to the front but that’s the state of Atlanta Motor Speedway these days. But let’s look at what he’s done in this tire combination. He started P18 in this race a year ago and finished seventh, but I’m guessing some post-race DQ’s led him to be scored with a top five. He also led ten laps with four fastest laps too. Earlier this year at Phoenix he started fifth and finished third, then at Richmond he started and finished sixth. He is the perennial tournament-only play each week, but both he and his teammate, Austin Hill, have seemingly been top ten with this tire combination on the comparable tracks. It is worth mentioning that the team reported throttle leakage during qualifying, so it remains to be seen if they’ll go to the rear for unapproved adjustments.

Riley Herbst ($8,600; Starting P14)

I've been mixing in some shares of Riley Herbst this week. High variance play? Absolutely, but many players will skip right over him and Parker Kligerman for the two PD plays in the high-$7k range. But Herbst still can get a top ten and possibly a top five which likely puts him in the optimal lineup if he can finish that high. He wrecked in this race a year ago but did finish tenth in 2021. Both he and Kligerman seemed satisfied with the setup for their cars ahead of Saturday's race.

Brett Moffitt ($8,000; Starting P12)

Moffit has finished 14^th and 9^th in his two career Xfinity races at New Hampshire. He started P17 at Phoenix earlier this year and finished 13^th. He didn’t have the greatest showing at Richmond finishing 22^nd but he did grab a top ten finish at Martinsville. He also comes in with momentum. Since the beginning of June, he’s finished 14^th or better in five straight races (Portland, Sonoma, Nashville, Chicago, and Atlanta) so there’s certainly some momentum on his side for a mid-range play starting P12. I would only utilize him in tournaments.

Kaz Grala ($7,800; Starting P38)

As unfortunate as it is, the practice notes are misleading for Grala because while he was very fast, he was wrecked by Ryan Sieg. Grala even said this will be the first time he’s ever gone to a backup car. If they can somehow get it set up to where the practice car was then he could have speed again with ease. I’m more comfortable with the play in cash games because he can’t get negative points. There will be a ton of ownership here for Tournaments though.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700; Starting P37)

Sieg lost his brakes in practice and junked his car in addition to Kaz Grala’s. I’ll keep the write-up brief because he’s fine for Cash games and I’ll be playing both him and Grala in Tournaments, but I might aim to be underweight on both in Tournaments just to have a little leverage. You’ll see in the NASCAR DFS Core Drivers neither he nor Grala are listed as GPP options. They’re both certainly viable in that format, but it’s impossible to say there’s leverage with these two.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,500; Starting P13)

Retzlaff hasn’t been one of the better drivers in this tire combination, but we do know that he has more experience on flatter tracks than any other track. He was running great in his debut at Phoenix in the Spring of 2022 before a fuel pump issue ended his debut early. But he bounced back last Spring and finished tenth at Richmond and 12^th at Martinsville. This year he’s finished 18^th at Phoenix, 16^th at Richmond, and 11^th at Martinsville. This will also be his debut at New Hampshire so while I don’t love the play in cash games, there’s certainly some appeal for tournaments. Similar to Moffitt, he’s likely only playable in Tournaments this weekend.

Joe Graf Jr. ($7,100; Starting P19)

Not a great play from a driver perspective. However, he’s driving for Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend and they do set their cars up well for this type of track as mentioned before. Graf grabbed a pair of top 15’s at Auto Club and Las Vegas but then had a poor showing at Richmond with JGR. He’s finished 24^th and 12^th in two previous races at New Hampshire so while I don’t love the play, I will acknowledge it’s an equipment upgrade for him this weekend.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,800; Starting P23)

Weatherman is a bit of a tough read this week. Granted, he’s back with JD Motorsports in the 4-car and he has a pair of top 20’s at New Hampshire in arguably worse equipment. He did finish 18^th and 14^th in this car at Nashville and Chicago’s Street Course. I’m perfectly fine with the play assuming he has top 15 upside. He’s still make a fine Tournament play based on the track history and he finished 17^th on this tire combination earlier this year at Phoenix with Our Motorsports. If you need a pivot you can consider his teammate, Brennan Poole ($5,500; Starting P24), who has three top ten finishes at New Hampshire but that was in far better equipment over five years ago.

Connor Mosack ($6,100; Starting P25)

I totally get it if you want to skip right on by and ignore Mosack in DFS. He’s finished outside the top 30 in his last three races and overall he tends to wreck too much for our liking. However, he did put down the 16^th-fastest lap in practice and his teammate, Kaz Grala, was very fast prior to being wrecked by Ryan Sieg. We’ve seen that this might be right about where Mosack finishes even if he manages to stay clean. But he just might have a top 15 ceiling this weekend based on what we saw in practice. I know I won’t go too heavy here. But I think I might play him in 15% of my Happy Hour lineups.

Chris Hacker ($5,900; Starting P31)

Hacker made his Xfinity Series debut earlier this year with RSS Racing starting P29 at Richmond and managing to finish 14^th. That’s probably his ceiling for this race. It was a nice debut, but I wouldn’t come to expect that. But he’s back with RSS Racing this weekend in his debut at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The price tag for this equipment puts him in play for Tournaments and he’s a borderline cash game play.

Blaine Perkins ($5,200; Starting P32)

Perkins has never raced New Hampshire before but we need to get a little creative with our value plays this week because this range is ugly. So this is more of a “gut” call with Perkins. In three races at Martinsville he has an average finish of 19.3 and his average finish at Phoenix is about 25^th. 

Other Value Plays

I won’t lie, the value range is tough this week. I’m tempted to lean on Greg Van Alst because he seemed like he was just tried to get comfortable in the car and not wreck it because he had a brakes issue. With Dawson Cram withdrawing from the race, he likely knew he was automatically in and just didn't want to wreck the car. He’ll go to the rear for Saturday’s race but he’s already starting P36 and he just needs to gain positions as the race progresses. Ryan Ellis is a cheap driver I’ve plugged into a couple early builds just hoping he can maybe finished 23^rd or better. Josh Williams is tempting as a value option but he qualified P22 and was having serious struggles prior to Atlanta, so the recent form isn’t great. I’ll consider taking the savings with C.J. McLaughlin because he starts P35, but in three of his four races this year he’s finished 30^th or worse. I would just like 18-20 points from him. Like I said, there are no obvious value plays for Saturday’s race.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers

The NASCAR DFS Core Plays will only feature GPP options this week. Cash games essentially boil down to 3v3 builds. Ryan Sieg and Kaz Grala are 50/50 and Double Up locks because of where they start. From there you’re picking between John Hunter Nemechek and Chandler Smith, and I’m guessing most will land on JHN because of the win equity and Joe Gibbs Racing’s dominance here in previous years. Because of that I’m guessing most Cash game builds are JHN/Sieg/Grala and you try to get different with the last three drivers you choose.

As mentioned above, both Ryan Sieg and Kaz Grala are fine in Tournaments, but there just isn't much leverage given their ownership.