We have made it to the penultimate race of the 2025 NASCAR season. We are one week away from Championship Weekend in Phoenix before the championship reverts back to Homestead in 2026. So we finish off the 2025 season with a pair of races on shorter flat tracks.

With this being a cutoff race for the Championship race we have two drivers, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe, already locked into the Championship race. Joe Gibbs Racing has two drivers locked in and its entirely possible Christopher Bell can either win or make his way in based on points. It should be an exciting race this weekend as Martinsville is rather unforgiving to drivers and teams that make errors. You truly have to run a perfect race to be in contention so let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway!

 

 

 

Martinsville Speedway

Martinsville Speedway is an iconic track on the NASCAR schedule. Sure, it’s smaller in stature especially in comparison to last week’s race at Talladega Superspeedway. But the drama always delivers at Martinsville whether we look at Matt Kenseth getting revenge on Joey Logano or Ross Chastain putting his car in the wall to advance to the Championship race back in 2022.

Martinsville is just over a half-mile in length with 12 degrees of banking in the turns. Track position and strategy are going to be key and cautions could be abundant. There isn’t any run-off at this track so NASCAR is aggressive with cautions. And the slightest damage can impact the car and likely bring a driver’s day to an end. And because this is a shorter track, laps will tick off quicker and cars will be lapped so you do not want to be stuck at the tail end of the field where passing has been difficult in this aero package.

As I mentioned at the top of this article, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe are locked into next weekend’s race in Phoenix. This race really doesn’t mean much to them. However, if either of them can secure the win, that does likely increase Christopher Bell’s chances of advancing because he’s in good standing with playoff points. Bell can certainly win his way into the Championship but either of his teammates getting the win could still be beneficial to him.

Here’s an updated look at the updated NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings. Both Bell and Kyle Larson are 35+ points above the cut line. And that seems wild to believe with regard to Larson because he’s been pretty quiet the last handful of months, but the playoff results have been fine. William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott are all 35+ points below the cut line. Chase Elliott is 62 points below the line, so he basically needs to win to qualify for next weekend. Ryan Blaney is 47 points below the cut line and is in a similar position. But Byron and Logano have a shot to point their win into the next round but they essentially need Bell and/or Larson to wreck out early on. I expect all four of these drivers to make some aggressive moves/strategic decisions to win and move on to the next round.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

We are going to see some massive scores on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. With 500 laps there are plenty of dominator points on the table. On FanDuel you receive one-tenth of a point for just completing a lap. On DraftKings we have well over 300 dominator points available between laps led and fastest laps.

It’s very likely we see at least one driver lead 100+ laps, especially when we take into consideration each stage has over 100 laps. So the longer runs will be beneficial to whoever is the leader with clean air. And on the off chance we do not see a driver lead 100+ it’s very likely we see a pair of drivers lead 75-85 laps. Four of the last five races at Martinsville have seen at least two drivers lead 50+ laps, including the last two Fall races at Martinsville.

Obviously based on the tables above, qualifying well has its perks because you have a solid path to dominator points. On DraftKings this is a track where we really want to aim for two-or-three dominators in our lineup just given that multiple drivers could lead 50+ laps and we’re seeing 11-or-12 drivers on average collect 10+ fastest laps.

Position differential still does matter, but I won’t necessarily chase it considering drivers outside the top 12 rows are scoring below the average on DraftKings. A lot of my builds may only roster two drivers starting outside the top 20 which is basically the opposite of last week’s approach at Talladega.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Xfinity 500

 

Xfinity 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

Blaney or Logano would’ve preferred to win last week at Talladega, but it wasn’t meant to be as the victory went to Chase Briscoe who will race for a Cup Series championship for the first time in his career. The good news for Blaney is that he basically knows that he needs to win this weekend’s race. He’s 47 points below the cut line and as fate would have it, he’s won the last two Fall races at Martinsville. He also has the best overall average finish at Martinsville in the NextGen era (4.6).

Team Penske has actually made some strides with their short track performances. Blaney even got the win at New Hampshire a little over a month ago with 116 laps led and he’s performed well at Iowa with a win last year and a top four finish this season. If Blaney gets up front he can absolutely lead a heavy amount of laps and while the current position in the standings isn’t great, he changes his fortunes if he can get a third straight win at Martinsville in the Fall.

Blaney’s starting spot makes him a lock for cash games and a solid play in tournaments. But it is awfully hard to see him winning after such a poor qualifying effort.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

This is a great price tag on FanDuel for Hamlin. He’s the second most expensive option on DraftKings while he’s the sixth most expensive on FanDuel. And while Hamlin has locked himself into the Championship Four for Phoenix, I don’t want to rule out the possibility that he runs hard for another win. And at the very least he wants to test his car for the short track package since next week’s race will require somewhat of a similar setup.
 

Hamlin won here earlier in the year and we know he’s historically been elite at Richmond which is one of the most comparable tracks to Martinsville. And in three of his last six races at this particular track, he’s led 100+ laps. Part of me is hoping that ownership comes in a little light because he doesn’t need to win this race. But the dominator potential is still there and Hamlin winning means that Bell could advance to the next round based on points.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

Christopher Bell doesn’t have the greatest track history at Martinsville, but he did win this race three years ago with 150+ laps led after he started P20. Earlier this year in the first Martinsville race, he won the pole and led 25 laps. He didn’t have the best car as it didn’t take long for him to get passed but he did finish as the runner-up to Denny Hamlin.

Bell is very good on the comparable flat tracks and if he can qualify for next week’s race, he’s a huge threat to win the Cup Series Championship because he’s won two of the last three races at Phoenix with 50+ laps led in all three. Even New Hampshire, another short flat layout, is one of his best tracks where he’s won two of the last four races.

Joe Gibbs Racing already swept the three races in the Round of 16 and they would absolutely love to do that again with their three playoff drivers in the Round of Eight.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,500

If we’re looking at Larson’s average finish at tracks in the NextGen era, Martinsville is his second-best (5.4) and that’s only behind Indianapolis Motor Speedway which NASCAR returned to in 2024 so there have only been two races there with the new car. Larson’s 5.4 average finish at this track is also second just behind Ryan Blaney.

Specifically at the Fall races the last three years, Larson has finished 2nd (with 68 laps led), 6th, and 3rd (with 71 laps led). Larson is currently just one point behind Christopher Bell in the standings. So he has a fair chance to point his way into the next round especially when you consider the average finish and his ability to collect stage points. But Larson and his team won’t just be settling for points. They know that’s not necessarily a lock especially when you account for how good Joe Gibbs Racing is at short flat tracks.

Larson has been rather quiet the last handful of races. But he’s led laps in all but one playoff race so there is dominator potential here so the ceiling is high even if he hasn’t won a race in over five months.

William Byron – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,000

Byron’s price tag on both sites is absolutely outstanding because he has win equity, he has dominator potential, and he has to be aggressive with his strategy for track position. He’s won here twice in the NextGen era, and he’s led 50+ laps here in three of the last seven races. This is a volatile play, however. Byron has come off a bit flat at times and that narrative can be applied to Hendrick Motorsports in general as Joe Gibbs Racing has looked great in the playoffs.

But Byron probably knows that being 36 points below the cut line, he needs to win to move on. And it’s a very difficult dynamic for this weekend’s race. Hendrick Motorsports would obviously love to get two drivers into the Championship race next weekend. Chase Elliott basically needs to win to qualify. But Byron can still win this race while Larson advances on points. That’s the ideal scenario for Hendrick so they can go 2v2 against Joe Gibbs Racing for the driver’s championship. So again, it’s a volatile play but he won at Iowa earlier this year and he finished 3rd at New Hampshire a little over a month ago. 

Byron’s on the pole for this race after a very strong effort in practice and qualifying on Saturday. He’s in great position to win his way into the championship race but there will be some hungry drivers starting behind him with the same goal in mind.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $8,500

Chastain is an absolute steal on FanDuel. He has the seventh best average finish at Martinsville (9.1) since the start of 2022. In that specific sample size, he’s finished top 15 in all seven races including four finishes in the top eight.

My big concern with Chastain coming into this race is momentum. He has just one top 10 finish in the playoffs but it did come at New Hampshire which correlates to Martinsville a little bit. And we know that Chastain is perfectly fine playing spoiler if he’s eliminated from the playoffs. He won the 2023 Championship race in Phoenix despite not being eligible for the title.

We’ll see highlights of his move at Martinsville three years ago where he put his car in the wall to advance out of the Round of Eight but that’s not his only good run here. If he can find a little magic he has upside, but it might have to come via an aggressive strategic move to gain track position.

Josh Berry – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $9,500

This price tag does bother me because it does feel like a trap. I don’t know how DraftKings prices Berry above Bowman, Gibbs, or Bubba. Berry does have a short track background but this is a very inflated tag. This past spring, he led 40 laps here but finished 32nd. Aside from that he doesn’t have a single top 15 finish here in three Cup Series races, but he does have a win here during his time in the Xfinity Series.

Now as much as I may want to complain about the pricing, I won’t argue about the practice speeds. Berry does seem to have decent long run speed, which wasn’t necessarily the case for his affiliate teammates over at Team Penske. Our NASCAR DFS Projections are looking at a potential top 15 day for Berry and potentially 45+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

Bubba has made the NASCAR DFS Playbook quite a bit lately. He was among our favorite plays for Kansas and Talladega and he grabbed top five finishes at both. We normally look to Bubba at the larger tracks that require more horsepower and the superspeedways. But Bubba Wallace has surprisingly gotten better at the shorter flat tracks and he has the eighth best average finish (9.9) over the last seven races at Martinsville.

He has four top 10 finishes in that seven-race sample size including a pair of top four results in the last two Spring races at this track. He had a very strong showing at Iowa where he started P15 and finished 6th. Iowa isn’t necessarily as flat as Martinsville, but it’s a shorter track. A more direct comparison to Martinsville might be Richmond where Bubba finished 28th but he led over 100 laps back in August. Even if he doesn’t lead many laps on Sunday, I still love this mid-range recommendation because he can register fastest laps and a top five finish to give us a strong return at this price.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

Buescher had a pretty bad qualifying effort and let’s try to remember that this kind of starting spot still puts him at risk of being lapped if he can’t gain a few spots early in the Stage 1 run. Buescher has an 18.6 average finish across the last seven races at Martinsville which is right around where we’re projecting him to finish on Sunday to possibly returned 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings. 

There’s a fairly safe floor with Buescher and he’s a driver who has won some races at this level including Richmond a few years ago which is a fairly comparable track in terms of size and shape. But RFK isn’t looking particularly good ahead of this race and I give some preferential treatment in tournaments to one of his teammates. But Buescher will draw some respectable ownership because of the starting spot and name recognition.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,800

Preece has had a very strong first season with RFK Racing but the organization as a whole doesn’t have a win this season. Preece grabbed a top five finish at Iowa and finished 14th at New Hampshire. Interesting enough, he won the pole at Richmond and led 60 laps but finished poorly. And I will acknowledge his run at Phoenix earlier in the year. He started P28 and finished 15th with 34 laps led and he collected a decent amount of fastest laps (42). But that race had the option of a softer tire compound and Preece was the first driver in the field to throw those tires on and he gained immense track position in short order.

So there is a bit of an asterisk with that race because it’s the only race this year where NASCAR introduced a softer tire compound. Preece grabbed four straight top 20 finishes at Martinsville while with Stewart-Haas Racing and that includes three finishes in the top 15. This past Spring he started P21 and finished 7th with RFK. Preece’s short track background plays well at this track so he’s definitely live for another top 10 finish at this track.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,800

Not a play I love especially because Daniel Suarez chalk is never a good thing. But he’s in his second-to-last race with Trackhouse Racing before he heads over to Spire Motorsports in 2026. Short flat tracks are not his specialty and in the NextGen era at Martinsville he only has an average finish of 22.6 and that includes four straight finishes outside the top 20. When I see a driver in rather fair equipment consistently finishing outside the top 20 at this track type, it personally gives me the read that he concedes track position and may not have that “dawg” in him to fight for every spot.

But Suarez does have the safety net of starting P30 and while he did run in the earlier practice session, I do have some optimism that the car might have some potential for a finish somewhere between 15th and 18th. But if we get a look at ownership Sunday morning and see his numbers are a bit inflated, then we should consider pivoting.

Todd Gilliland – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $5,200

I do like Gilliland for this race because for a low dollar play he has top 15 potential. In the NextGen era at Martinsville he has an average finish of 18.1 but we should acknowledge that he has an average starting position of 16.1 but that can still play at a track like Martinsville.

Gilliland qualifying well is still fine because we know drivers starting far back in worse equipment are at risk of getting lapped. Even this past Spring he started P25 and finished top 10. In the Spring of 2024 he started P16 and finished 13th. In this race two years ago he started P17 and finished 10th. Three years ago he started P19 and finished 13th. So we don’t need to avoid the play if he qualifies well.

He’s coming off a surprising runner-up finish at Talladega a week ago and he grabbed a top 20 result at New Hampshire after starting P36. All in all, he has a lot of momentum coming into this race but because of the qualifying effort we only use him for tournaments. But if he runs a clean first stage then it’s unlikely he loses the lead lap and he might be able to hold this position throughout the race.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $3,800

This is definitely more of a “gut” call because I have some concerns with Zane Smith. For starters, the track history in the Cup Series isn’t great. However, I think it deserves a little context. Zane Smith was initially a driver signed to Trackhouse Racing but was “on loan” with Spire Motorsports. Then it became apparent that he may not have a spot with Trackhouse because the team signed Shane Van Gisbergen to rack up road course wins for the organization. And with the emergence of Connor Zilisch in the Xfinity Series, the team got aggressive to sign him to a Cup Series contract before Hendrick Motorsports could sign him as a potential replacement for Alex Bowman.

Now I mention all this because, Zane seemingly had a promising deal at one point with Trackhouse that just never manifested itself into reality. So he signs with Front Row Motorsports for the 2025 season, a team he had previously raced for and had success with in the Truck Series. Even at Martinsville, Zane has a win and a pair of 3rd place finishes as a driver for this organization. In Zane’s first Cup Series race with FRM at Martinsville he finished 16th this past spring. And earlier this week he signed an extension to remain with the organization a couple more years and that sort of job security can go a long way for a driver’s mentality.

This is mostly a momentum call because the practice speeds left a lot to be desired. But he starts high enough where I don’t think he’s at risk of being lapped and ownership won’t be all that noteworthy, so I like this play as a contrarian piece.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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