The NASCAR Cup Series is back following a rather tame race in Talladega last weekend. Sure, there was a modest wreck around lap 40-45 last week with some drivers trying to make it to pit road as others stayed on the track. But other than that, it was a quiet Talladega race that saw Austin Cindric secure his third career win.

Now NASCAR goes to Texas Motor Speedway. This is largely regarded as one of the worst tracks on the NASCAR schedule. They’re stripped it of a playoff race and the All-Star weekend as well. It’s a shame because this track actually draws a great crowd and sells tickets. The quality of racing is often the biggest issue and drivers have made it well known they’d prefer to go elsewhere. But we can use previous track history and race trends to build our winning NASCAR DFS lineups for Sunday’s Würth 400!

 

 

 

Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile high speed intermediate track. As mentioned above, the racing is often lackluster although the Xfinity Series managed to find ways to make it exciting as Kyle Larson scored the win on Saturday.

But for the most part, it’s incredibly difficult to pass. “Passing clean” can only really be done if you have a far superior car. Even late in Saturday’s race, Austin Hill had to pack air on Nick Sanchez to get him a little loose and get by him. There’s nothing illegal about that but Hill would rather pass him on pure speed but this track really only has one drivable groove because of its layout.

We do see plenty of intermediates on the NASCAR schedule. This year we’ve already seen Vegas, Homestead, and Darlington. None of these tracks translate all that well to Texas because of their shape, banking, and tire wear. However, it’s the same aero package so we can pull some information from those races. We’re really being treated to the dichotomy of NASCAR. This weekend, we’re at Texas which is one of the worst tracks on the schedule. But next week we get Kansas Speedway which has been a very good track in terms of racing for the NextGen car.

 

 

 

Texas Motor Speedway Trends

For your own reference, in the table above, only races 1, 2, and 3 are from the NextGen era. It is promising that in the three NextGen races at Texas, there are at least seven drivers in each race that registered double-digit place differential. For a track where it can be difficult to pass on longer runs, that’s a decent number but most of that could also come from strategy. That pattern could hold true for Sunday’s race based on how qualifying went.

The laps led are interesting though. For a race with over 200 laps, it’s surprising that we haven’t seen many drivers lead 50+ laps. And in the NextGen era only one driver has led over 100 laps although Kyle Larson almost made that two back in 2023. But nearly two-thirds of the laps led have come from drivers starting in the top 10 so we should be targeting at least two dominators from that group and hoping we nail a tertiary dominator starting further back that can get dominator points later on.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

It’s clear that the polesitter has an edge so that bodes well for Carson Hocevar. However, he does have some very fast cars with talented drivers that’ll be chasing him down that are starting in the first four rows. But if you watched the Truck and Xfinity Series races, then you’ll know that restarting P1 has an edge, especially the inside lane. Some drivers (Kyle Larson mostly) made the outside work on Saturday so we can’t discount the outside lane entirely.

Aside from the pole, there aren’t too many patterns that stand out, aside from discussing how many drivers finish on the lead lap. In each of the three NextGen races at Texas, there have been at least 25 drivers to finish on the lead lap. So if you’re in subpar equipment that traditionally starts further back, that likely explains why those starting spots don’t score well. This race will be tricky because of the chalk available to us starting outside the top 20.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Würth 400

The NASCAR Cup Series was the only series that was fortunate to get practice and qualifying in this weekend as rain washed out P&Q for the Truck and Xfinity Series on Friday. NASCAR once again ran two separate practice groups so the combined data is viewable in the table above. Nothing really stood out between practice and qualifying.

You’ll notice that some great drivers are starting deep in the field. That’s largely because they finished poorly at Talladega last week and thus qualified early on Saturday after the track cooled off from practice. Chris Buescher laid down a great lap early in the session and that provided the blueprint for the drivers after him to run a similar line. So drivers like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and a few others didn’t have that same luxury since they qualified before Buescher. Overall, it was a rather ho-hum day for the Cup Series so hopefully Sunday’s race can spice things up!

 

Würth 400 DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Recent track history isn’t necessarily on his side. However, there’s still plenty to like. In last year’s race he started on the pole and collected about 39 dominator points but ultimately didn’t finish well. He was absolutely killing it here in the 2023 playoffs when he led 99 laps with 88 fastest laps (64.35 dominator points) but unfortunately, he failed to finish the race.

So while the results haven’t been great, he’s still showing us the ability to dominate here and he did lead 256 laps here in 2021, when he won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

And at the end of the day, this is an intermediate track. And given how difficult it is to pass here, if he gets to the front he can once again collect several dominator points and it can’t hurt that he tagged in for Connor Zilisch and ran the Xfinity Series race on Saturday.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

My faith is ultimately on Larson to possess the higher ceiling especially after Saturday’s practice results. But there’s no denying Byron registers the better results and he seemed very pleased with the car after practice and acknowledged they really just needed to make one small adjustment during their session. The speed wasn’t elite, but I like that the driver said he was happy with where the car was at.

He won this race in 2023 and finished third in 2024 while also leading 40+ laps in both races in 2021 and 2022. So again, the dominator totals don’t hold a candle to Larson, but Byron’s still finishing well.

He finished fourth at Vegas and second at Darlington. Neither track is a great comparison for Texas, but they are intermediates and we know Hendrick Motorsports can nail the setups for this track type.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

This is a tough one for me because, admittedly, I just never feel like I get to Reddick on his best days. And when I do load up on him, he reverts to driving a tractor. But I am optimistic despite the fact he didn’t register a long run in practice.

The track history is great, although he did finish 25th here in 2023. But last year he started and finished fourth while getting the win at Texas in 2022, the first year of the NextGen car. In all three of those races, he did lead 35+ laps.

This could also simply be a track that he runs well at. Big Machine Racing has one win in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. And you know who was driving that car? Tyler Reddick. And what track were they at? Texas. Yes, the long run is a mystery, but we do have PD to work with regarding this play and he manages to find his way to the front here.

Joey Logano – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $10,500

I do like both Logano and Ryan Blaney, but I’m only going to highlight Logano. The reason being that they’re both just such similar plays for this race. They drive for the same time, start outside the top 20, had great practice speed, and both qualified before Chris Buescher who showed a majority of the field the preferred line to run in qualifying.

Logano and Blaney both practiced in the earlier group session. Blaney was first in 10-lap averages and third in 15-lap averages in Group A. Logano was fifth and second across those two metrics. But Logano was also top two in 20-and-25-lap metrics.

Logano’s track history (and momentum) is better as well. Blaney’s run into a ton of bad luck but I’ll still be playing him this weekend. Logano finished second at Texas in 2022 and was 11th last year with 14 and 15 laps led in those races respectively. When we get to this higher tier, I do prioritize laps led. But Logano is cheaper and can pay off the price tag with PD and a good finish while we target the dominator points elsewhere.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $9,500

Briscoe starts P22 but he was 7th in 10-lap average in Group B and then 6th in 15-lap averages for the group. The practice speed numbers aren’t great and he hasn’t dazzled us so far this year. But at the same time he finished fourth at Bristol and Homestead, and also led 20 laps last week at Talladega. So maybe he’s finding his groove with his new team?

During his time with Stewart-Haas Racing, Texas Motor Speedway was surprisingly one of Briscoe’s best tracks. In three NextGen races at Texas he has an average starting position of P22 (same spot he’ll be starting on Sunday) and an average finish of 7th. It’s worth noting that in two of those three races he started P30 and P31 so he’s showing that he can move up through the field at a track where passing is a challenge.

Joe Gibbs Racing does provide better equipment than what he previously drove in so I do like getting exposure to this play for tournaments, but I don’t think I trust him just yet for cash games.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

I really thought about going with Bubba Wallace here, but I’ll save him for next week at Kansas. I’ll go with Bowman, but warn you all that he doesn’t have the best track history. Since 2020, he’s wrecked twice at Texas and has just one top 20 finish.

But I really liked the practice speed and it doesn’t feel like he’ll carry significant ownership starting P11. Bowman ranked sixth in 10-lap averages and then he was fourth in 15-and-20-lap metrics. It once again feels like Hendrick Motorsports has the right setups for all their cars even though Chase Elliott qualified poorly. Bowman’s a contrarian play for tournaments but if you have the extra salary, then Elliott’s the preferred option for cash games.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

We’re still waiting on the Ty Gibbs breakout win. At this phase it likely comes at a superspeedway and to that point, he led over 30 laps at Talladega last week.

But Texas is nothing like Dega. Prior to the Easter break, Gibbs grabbed a top 10 at Darlington and then finished third at Bristol. So maybe the team found some momentum before returning to a high variance track like Talladega.

The one thing I really like is that Gibbs may have found some long run speed in the car. While Clint Bowyer isn’t the most well-versed analyst that NASCAR has, but he pointed out that Gibbs managed to find some long run speed without much fall off during practice. And the speed was better than that of Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. Now let’s that that with a grain of salt because during Sunday’s race, if we get a long run where the cars spread out, it becomes difficult to pass. But given the practice speed and the results heading into the break, I do want to be slightly overweight on this driver.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,200

Here we go again. I do apologize for sounding like a broken record. And for what it’s worth, I am well aware that he’s on a cold streak. Even at a track like Talladega where we embrace the variance and can give him a pass for a late wreck, he gets into a wreck while trying to get on pit road and he’s done after 42 laps.

I don’t think I need to necessarily emphasize or elaborate any further on how bad he’s been this year. And a good portion of this sport boils down to luck. And he has NONE at the moment.

So here’s where we’re at; he basically had top five practice speed in Group A, but had to qualify early in the session on Saturday because he wrecked last week. So we should’ve anticipated a bad starting spot. The practice speed is somewhat promising as is the track history. He was the runner-up here last year and in three NextGen races at Texas, he hasn’t finished worse than eighth. Truthfully, I do think he finishes worse than eighth for this race, but that’s still okay. At this price tag, and where he’s starting, I’d be content if he could just do enough to finish 15th. He won’t like that result but for DFS, we’d be happy as a clam with those 40+ fantasy points.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $6,500

It feels a bit bold to put Hocevar in here, but given that he’s a value play, and on the pole, it goes without saying that he’s strictly a GPP play. William Byron and Kyle Larson start on the outside of rows 1 and 2 for this race. But Spire Motorsports may have just found a little somethin’ somethin’ for Sunday’s race.

Hocevar obviously went out and won his first career pole, becoming the youngest driver to ever do so at Texas Motor Speedway. Michael McDowell qualified P5 and Justin Haley, sans Rodney Childers, qualified P15. Hocevar also flashed top four speed in Group B’s practice session. So it’s totally possible that Spire has something for this race and I will be listing these three in the driver pool at the bottom of the article.

The good news for Hocevar is that if he gets the jump on Byron and Larson, and if he can hold them off for a while and collect laps led, then he’s elevating his ceiling. It’s tough to pass at this track. But he does need to register his best finish of the season to hit the optimal lineup so we really need to limit exposure to just tournaments but it’s always nice to get a value play that can lead laps early on.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,200

Preece had a great run last week at Talladega as the only RFK driver to finish the race after Keselowski and Chris Buescher wrecked early on. Preece finished second but was disqualified following post-race tech inspection, so that really only impacted FanDuel results.

Regardless, the disqualification screwed Preece because the qualifying order for Texas was determined by a metric that weighs the previous week’s results (70%) with owner points (30%) so since Preece got disqualified he had to qualify very early on Saturday. So naturally, he didn’t have the best track conditions and starts P33.

Preece is another driver who didn’t get a long run in practice. He did start P26 and finish 12th last year with Stewart-Haas Racing and we saw him finish 3rd at Vegas and 9th at Homestead. For cash games he’s a fair option at this price tag.

If you want a GPP pivot that nobody will play then consider Austin Cindric for $200 more on DraftKings. Cindric starts P3 and while track history isn’t on his side, he had arguably the fastest car in both practice sessions. Coming off the win last week, DFS players might be off Cindric, so you probably have leverage just playing him in 10-15% of your lineups.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $4,500

I don’t want to overthink this too much and maybe this is the easy way out for our NASCAR DFS picks, but Stenhouse starts P34 and offers a relatively safe floor for a driver this cheap. Last year he started P31 and finished 24th. In 2023 he started P24 and finished 9th.

All in all, he’s raced at Texas 20 times in his career and in half of them he’s finished 16th or better. Even if he just finished 22nd with no dominator points, he’s getting us 5X value. But if he does manage to just ride around and stay on the lead lap and get another top 16 finish, then he’s probably reaching 45 fantasy points.

Practice speeds indicate he might have a top 20 car so it really just boils down to Stenhouse not doing what he does best and wrecking at an inopportune time.

Ty Dillon – DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $4,200

I don’t have a ton to work with regarding Dillon because we didn’t really see how the car looked in the long run in practice. But this is the cheapest driver I’m willing to play on DraftKings. I’d probably lay off on FanDuel.

Dillon’s actually doing pretty well getting some decent finishes for Kaulig Racing. He did manage to qualify P23 but be mindful there are better drivers and better cars that’ll work their way through the field. But in each of the last three Texas races in the NextGen era, Dillon’s finished inside the top 20. And he did that with three different teams! With Kaulig Racing, his current team, he did start P36 and finish 16th here a year ago. But he doesn’t have as much PD to work with this time around.

If you need a cash game pivot, I can stomach Shane van Gisbergen, who has a safer floor because he starts P37 but he’s still getting adjusted to ovals. Hopefully you don’t need a cash game punt in this range, but if you do I’d go with SVG and hope he can maybe grind out a finish in the top 25.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

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