For the second straight week we get some NASCAR Cup Series road course action! Shane van Gisbergen went to victory lane for the second time this season and he swept both the Xfinity and Cup Series races at Chicago last weekend!

For this weekend, he finished as the runner-up in Saturday’s Xfinity Series Race at Sonoma Raceway, but he starts on the pole once again for Sunday’s Cup Series race. Can he go back-to-back? He’ll have some stiff competition to contend with so let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Sonoma Raceway Trends

Sonoma marks the fourth road course that we’ve seen on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series schedule with two remaining (Watkins Glen and the Roval). Sonoma isn’t as technical of a track as say maybe COTA or Mexico City. But it does see some elevation changes, and about a dozen turns for some exciting racing as we saw on Saturday for the finish to the Xfinity Series race.

The trends table for this week doesn’t shed any new light on what we know about scoring and building out successful lineups for DFS. We should expect at least 10 drivers to gain at least six spots in positive place differential. From there, there may be five or six that gain at least 10 spots.

The biggest takeaway is that win equity largely comes in the first four rows. The last five winners have all started in the first four rows. Fascinating enough, three of the last five winners came from starting P8 although Martin Truex Jr. accounts for two of those wins.

While dominator points are limited (we have about 70 available on DraftKings today), it’s worth noting that over 85% of the laps led come from drivers starting in the top 10 so track position is certainly key. On most ovals with low variance we typically see about 65-75% of the laps led by drivers starting in the top 10. That’s an especially jarring number because SVG is once again on the pole for this race and he likely goes out and leads 30+ laps today if things go according to plan.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The P8 spot is elevated because as I just mentioned, MTJ won two of the last five races starting P8 while Daniel Suarez was the other. It’s also not surprising that some of the top scorers start in the teens and further on back simply because they can rack up points with position differential. But overall, with fewer dominator points available, we do mostly lean into position differential. 

In the last four races at Sonoma, the polesitter has led at least 15 laps but the score is dragged down a bit in the charts above because Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin were the last two polesitters and both finished outside the top 20. So I think we can put a little more faith in SVG possibly maintaining track position for this race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Similar to last week’s Playbook, I’m not putting a ton of investment into the practice-to-qualifying table for this race. At road courses, it helps to have a fast car, but it’s arguably just as vital to really hit your marks as a driver and ensure you’re making the track as short as possible.

The P2Q column may be slightly inflated as well because a handful of drivers managed a 15-lap run while 75% of the field did not. That’s why Cody Ware’s P2Q score looks so good. But it looks like the best drivers suited for this course did qualify fairly well so roster construction could be a nice challenge for us on Sunday.

Shane Van Gisbergen

It’s not really all that fun playing SVG at this price tag for a road course. But he was $12,000 on DraftKings last week at a track with fewer laps. This race has 110 total laps and he’s only $500 more. We cannot view him as a point-per-dollar play. If he can go out and get 55-60+ fantasy points you take it and you’re happy, especially if he wins.

He’s on the pole for this race just like he was a week ago. He grabbed 17.3 dominator points last week while winning from the pole for 62.3 fantasy points on DraftKings. This track seems almost too easy for him. It’s not exceptionally technical by any means. Mexico City and COTA are much more technical. Chicago is challenging because it lacks good spots to pass and run-off is minimal. Sonoma is wide open and he can make easy work of the field here.

He grabbed extra laps by running in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race so we can feel even better about him scoring well from the pole for this race Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Larson

SVG is an easy play this week given the road course pedigree and his two wins this season have come on road/street layouts. However, if Kyle Larson had to pick his favorite road course, it’s probably Sonoma. He had a stretch of five straight pole wins at Sonoma from 2017-2022 (NASCAR didn’t come to Sonoma in 2020 due to COVID).

In the last four races at Sonoma, Larson has two wins and in three of those races he’s led at least 19 laps. It’s a little odd we haven’t seen Larson lead a single lap since the Coca Cola 600 but this is a track where he certainly has a good chance to get out front and lead laps, even if he is starting P11. The road course results haven’t been great this year, but we know based on the track history he can get this 5-car to victory lane.

Chase Elliott

I thought about featuring Tyler Reddick because of the road course pedigree. But at the end of the day, Elliott is cheaper and offers more PD. Plus he carries his own road course pedigree in his own right.

Elliott has led multiple laps in five straight races at Sonoma including 36 total laps in the NextGen era. In those three races he’s finishes 8th, 5th, and 4th. Earlier this year, Elliott finished top five at COTA and Mexico City, while he had to drive through the field at Chicago and finished just outside the top 15.

He’s still one of the more elite road course drivers in the field and he starts outside the top 10 for Sunday’s race so lock and load!

Michael McDowell

I was someone with decent exposure to McDowell last Sunday for the race in Chicago and it was disheartening to see him fail to finish with a throttle issue. He looked to have a car that could contend with SVG and the other road course specialists and led over 30 laps before the issues took him out of the race.

I’m going right back to the well with McDowell for this weekend’s action in Sonoma. In the NextGen era, this is McDowell’s best track in terms of average finish (4.0), while his second-best is Bristol (13.8). He finished third here in 2022 and was the runner-up last year. In all three NextGen races he’s had a driver rating over 100.

McDowell is one of the few drivers I’m writing up this week before we even see qualifying and the starting order. But he qualified P15 so he does lend himself to position differential (PD) and carries a little win juice as he was +1100 to win the race prior to qualifying.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

A.J. Allmendinger

Allmendinger hasn’t really “lit it up” in the Cup Series. He led significant laps here in a couple races a decade ago but he has back-to-back 6th place finishes with Kaulig Racing at Sonoma.

Dinger still has the road course pedigree which makes him ideal for this race and he laid down the fastest lap in practice which should always pique our interest. He’s not a cash game play because he starts P5 but I love getting a little exposure in tournaments because he’s a sub-$9K option on DraftKings.

Chris Buescher

Buescher isn’t really in danger of missing the playoffs, but 12 drivers have won a race so far this year. That leaves just four spots open based on driver points. Buescher has a decent cushion above the cut line and he should improve his position after this race.

Buescher has the best average finish among all drivers in the field (3.0) in the NextGen era. He’s come very close to winning here while finishing top four in the last three Sonoma races. And that includes a runner-up result after starting P26 and leading 32 laps. Leading laps from the starting spot is especially impressive because over 85% of the laps led in the last five Sonoma races have come from drivers starting inside the top 10.

Buescher is another driver I’m writing up ahead of qualifying. And I mention this because, in prior seasons, he wasn’t the greatest qualifier. However, that’s really changed this year. He’s qualified outside the top 20 just twice all year and he’s qualified P13 or better in nine of his last 10 races. So even if he isn’t a good PD play, then we can at least consider him as a play that can potentially win the race and lead some laps to score well for our NASCAR DFS lineups. 

Joey Logano

Logano isn’t a road course specialist but he also starts P22 for this race. Logano can be very hit-or-miss at Sonoma. In 2015, 2016, 2021, and 2023 he finished in the top five at this track. In 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2024 he finished between 19th and 23rd. So the results do vary but the upside warrants consideration in tournaments.

At the end of the day, we don’t really see Logano start this far back for most races. He finished 11th last week at Chicago and he’s cheap enough where I’d be content registering a top 12 finish from him at this track for Sunday’s race.

It’s not an exciting play by any means but he is a three-time Cup Series champion offering PD on a road course. I think he projects as a reasonably good play as long as he’s not the victim of any chaos.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Bubba Wallace

We do need to identify some position differential plays and unfortunately, we turn to a man we don’t quite understand… That’s a bunch of BS actually. We understand Bubba to the fullest extent, I just have a flare for the dramatics.

Is Bubba a good road ringer? Not in the slightest. Bubba was running very well last week at Chicago before some late-race shenanigans with Alex Bowman cost him heavy track position after he was spun late in stage three.

Now, given that he was running well and the fact that he did grab a top 12 at Mexico City, I’m inclined to believe he can move up and finish well even if this is a road course. Bubba has finished top 20 in each of the last two Sonoma races so even if he can just manage to finish 16th, he’s returning 40+ fantasy points at a friendly price tag.

Ryan Preece

Preece is an interesting play because he’s in arguably the best equipment of his career and his previous results at Sonoma haven’t been awful by any means. With Stewart-Haas Racing last year, he started P30 and finished 18th and in 2023 he started P22 and finished 13th. So it stands to reason that he should be able to grab a top 15 finish on Sunday.

He managed to finish 15th at Mexico City a few weeks ago and then finished 7th at Chicago last week. So despite not being a “road ringer” compared to some others in this field, Preece has finished rather well during his time with RFK Racing.

He does roll off P20 so it’s best we leave him to just GPP lineups. But ultimately if there’s a little chaos, it does feel like he can potentially wheel this car to a top 12 finish.

John Hunter Nemechek

I don’t quite know why but we’ll consider this a gut call. In looking at his results on road courses this year, he’s found ways to move up even if it does require a specific pit strategy. But he’s gained 10+ spots in position differential in all three road course races this year.

Last week at Chicago he started P25 and finished 15th. At Mexico City he started P32 and finished 6th. At COTA he started P33 and finished 22nd.

Now this race differs from those three because he starts P18 but if that possibly lowers ownership then I am fine throwing him into some lineups just to get a little bit of leverage. If he can steal a top 12 finish in this race then he’s returning 37 fantasy points and that’s assuming no dominator points are involved.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 

Listing Stenhouse in a NASCAR DFS Playbook for a road course feels wrong but he’s dirt cheap and he offers a ton of position differential. In five of the last six races at Sonoma, Stenhouse has finished in the top 25 and that includes three straight top 25 results in the NextGen era.

Stenhouse is nowhere close to being a road course specialist, but at the end of the day he’s incredibly cheap and offers a ton of position differential. Both he and Austin Dillon give off similar vibes for this race. Would I play them together? Probably not. But I’d be fine spreading exposure around between those two and maybe sprinkle in Cody Ware if you need severe salary relief.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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