Fresh off a race South of the Border, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the states for some high-speed action around the Tricky Triangle of Pocono Raceway! Shane van Gisbergen got his second career Cup Series win by dominating the field on Sunday in Mexico City. It was a race that obviously catered to his strengths and he spanked the field and won in a landslide with minimal cautions in the third stage.

With NASCAR’s second road course in the rearview we’re back to strictly left turns for Sunday’s action. Pocono Raceway doesn’t usually produce the best product, especially on television. But that certainly doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. Let’s take a look at our top NASCAR DFS Picks for The Great American Getaway 400!

 

 

 

Pocono Raceway is a massive complex. It is a unique track in its own right. If we’re looking at good comparisons, nowadays the only one might be Michigan International Speedway as it measures in as a two-mile oval. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is another good comparison. However, NASCAR spent a couple years running Indy’s road course so we only have one NextGen race on Indy’s oval to consider. But we do get more horsepower and speed. Pocono is a 2.5-mile track with just three turns. It’s largely flat (the banking varies in each turn) with two of the longest straightaways we’ll see all year. Overall, it’s not incredibly technical but fuel management does come into play a bit which adds some excitement.

Now when I say the product doesn’t produce great racing it’s mostly because long green flag runs really spread the field out and it’s not the easiest track to pass at. Fortunately, in the NextGen era, we’re seeing a fair amount of cautions to add a little bit of drama to the race. Over the last three years there have been about nine cautions per race for 35-40 laps.

That last point is interesting. We only get 160 laps for this race. So it’s possible that 20-25% of the race is run under caution. At the absolute most we are exposed to only 112 dominator points. If we’re losing 35-40 green flag laps in this race, then we’re likely looking at maybe 95 total dominator points since DraftKings doesn’t reward fastest lap points for yellow flag laps.

Now that’s not to say that we should be taking a road course approach to this race or only going with one dominator. The best cars tend to prevail at a track like Pocono and while there are fewer dominator points, they do disperse throughout the field. Last year’s race saw five drivers record at least 10 dominator points. Compared to most tracks, that isn’t much. But they do carry weight at a track like Pocono.

 

 

 

Pocono Raceway Trends

I know most weeks it seems like I mail it in with the trends section, but really pay close attention to why some things look a certain way this week because context is key as we try to take anything away from previous races when building our lineups for this weekend.

Races 1, 2, and 3 in the above table represent the Pocono races in 2024, 2023, and 2022. Columns 4 and 5 represent the 2021 doubleheader. The first race in the 2021 doubleheader was pretty basic. It was only 130 laps compared to the last three years when we’ve seen 160 laps. No big deal either way. However, it’s important to note that the finishing order for Saturday’s race determined the order for Sunday’s race. Drivers finishing 21st or deeper would start in that exact spot on Sunday. However, the top 20 finishers from Saturday would have their finishing position inverted and that’s where they’d start on Sunday. For example, Alex Bowman won the Saturday race so he started P20 on Sunday. Kyle Busch finished second on Saturday and then started P19 (and won) on Sunday.

I say this because that 4th race in the column looked like it had some big movers. Six drivers that finished inside the top 10 had started outside the top 12. And that also explains why only 38 laps in that Sunday race were led by drivers that started in the top 10. All the fast cars from Saturday started a bit deeper and they obviously moved up during Sunday’s race.

When building lineups for Sunday really focus on the first three columns. The circumstances surrounding the starting lineup for the fourth column are a complete outlier. Moreover, the table shows that over the last five Pocono races that almost 71% of the laps led came from inside the top 10. If we just look solely at the three NextGen era races we’re seeing 80.2% of the laps led are coming from drivers starting inside the top 10. And based on where the winners have started, that’s where most of the win equity is coming from as well. The laps led at Pocono typically correlate with fastest laps as well because clean air is king. If a driver can get out front, there’s a very good chance they can stay out there until the end of the stage or if there’s a caution thrown.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

To no surprise, it is looking like a track position race and that makes complete sense. We’ve touched on how hard it can be to pass here. This is one of the few tracks where we really don’t need to lean into drivers starting outside the top 20. Sure, maybe play a cheap value play or two. But we’re looking at the biggest DFS scores coming from inside the first nine rows.

Practice and Qualifying Results

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: The Great American Getaway 400

It’s another frustrating week for the practice results. Pocono’s a big track so right away we knew that most of the field probably wasn’t going to stay out for 20 laps. However, only 16 of the 37 drivers registered a 10-lap run for this race. And Byron had the fastest car in practice but wrecked. I guess the good news is that the team won’t be going to a backup car and they’ll work to repair the primary car.

Overall, it’s still incredibly frustrating to not have seen even 25 cars get a 10-lap run. We aren’t running entirely blind, however. The qualifying results give us enough options to play some chalk while finding creative ways to make our lineups unique. The value tier could be a struggle this week. There are easy value plays to commit to, but it feels like one of those cheap guys starting in the teens might crack the optimal lineup based on the scoring from previous races. That’s potentially the most difficult tier to navigate for Sunday’s race.

 

The Great American Getaway 400 DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Fresh off having a baby he’s got some good vibes and we’re featuring a healthy amount of Toyota drivers for this race. Not only does Denny have the dad narrative heading into Pocono but he has some great track history having won two of the three NextGen era Pocono races, and he was the runner-up in last year’s race. I should note than Hamlin was disqualified following his 2022 Pocono win but the result held up on DraftKings at least.

In total Hamlin has won here (officially) seven times in 35 races. You can make the argument he has eight wins. To each their own! Specifically in the three NextGen races we’re getting a driver who has led 31, 9, and 21 laps respectively at the Tricky Triangle. So yeah, he’s pretty good here and hopefully he got plenty of rest as the lone driver in the field who didn’t have to make the trip to Mexico City.

Hamlin also has plenty of success on the comparable tracks. He just won at Michigan two weeks ago outlasting everyone else who was conserving fuel while also finishing third in 2022 and 2023. In last year’s return to the Indianapolis oval, he led 21 laps and finished 1st and 3rd in the first two stages but he wrecked during an overtime restart while running in the top five.

All in all, with Hamlin set to return and having showcased a knack for dominating at the high-speed intermediates, I’m expecting him to show up and potentially go to victory lane for the fourth time this year. Hamlin starts on the pole for Sunday’s race which gives him a great edge for early dominator points.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

I’m leaning into Blaney over Kyle Larson this week. I’m hoping name recognition, small discount, and the extra PD put more folks on Larson for Sunday’s race. Will I still play him? Absolutely. He’s Kyle Larson after all. But his practice speeds were uncharacteristically sub-par and the track history is just okay.

Blaney’s track history is also rather weak as he finished outside the top 30 at Pocono in 2022 and 2023. However, he did win this race a year ago with 44 laps led. Now he starts P20 for this race and he’ll have some work to do in order to get to the front.

Blaney’s practice speeds show he was top five in five-lap averages and he was second in 10-lap averages. Given how qualifying played out you can start your lineups with Hamlin and Blaney and go from there.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $12,500

I’ve covered Byron plenty this season and he still only has one win to show for it at Daytona to kick off the year. Pocono is a track where the track history is okay but he’s shown a great ability to get up front. In 11 career races at the Tricky Triangle, he’s led double-digit laps in five of them including 60 back in 2023 from the pole. Byron has started on the front row four times at Pocono in his career.

I’m also buying into his potential to dominate this race. We know Hendrick Motorsports is among the elite in terms of equipment quality. In 2023 Byron returned over 20 dominator points in this race. Remember the 2021 doubleheader at Pocono? In the Saturday race he finished third with 8.2 dominator points and then on Sunday he finished 12th but with 12.7 dominator points. 

Now, I mention the dominator upside because we’ve clearly seen it on multiple occasions this year. At Darlington and Charlotte, he led over 200 laps but failed to win. Just two weeks ago at Michigan he led almost 100 laps but ran out of fuel with a couple laps remaining and he finished outside the top 25. The dominator upside is certainly there. While it’s unlikely he even leads half the laps in this race, I do like him as a driver that can get over 20+ dominator points and still score well. Now we do need to discuss qualifying…

If Byron can get to the front, it might take a while and he’ll need to flip the stage with pit strategy potentially. He’ll start very deep in the field for this race after crashing during his qualifying lap on Saturday. The good news is that the PD is certainly there which will make him a chalky option, but PD is helpful at a track where we only get 160 laps. The team is going to fix the primary car and will not be going to the backup car. I like that decision a lot.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $11,500

I feel bad most weeks when I feel like I’m putting the same guys in the Playbook over and over. Reddick certainly qualifies in that I’m writing him up where in my head I’m thinking “Really? Again?” But here’s why.

The track history is great. In the last three races at Pocono he’s finished 6th, 2nd, and 2nd. But despite the great finishes, in that three-race NextGen sample size, he has a total of just 8.7 dominator points. That’s across three races! We just talked about how that number could be Byron’s floor at any Pocono race.

Now the other concern with Reddick is that recent form is underwhelming. In the last eight points-paying races he’s led a total of just nine laps without a top five finish. So I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for the average finish position at Pocono. But overall, when building my lineups for Sunday it wouldn’t surprise me if I’m light on him and I’m saying this as the guy writing him up.

Reddick does have track position to start at least. And that might just be enough to suppress ownership if the DFS community is chasing PD while plugging in Hamlin for early dominator points. It helps that Reddick also appeared to have top five speed in practice but we’ve seen plenty of races this year where he’s been fast in practice but a dud on Sunday.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,000

It feels weird having three Hendrick cars in the Playbook after the weird practice/qualifying round on Saturday. Alas, the PD puts them all in play, so we kick off the mid-tier with Chase Elliott.

Elliott’s checking plenty of boxes heading into this race except for the fact he didn’t get a long run in practice. But perhaps he was satisfied with the speed. His qualifying lap was partially screwed up because Byron wrecked but he was able to go back out on fresh tires. Not like it mattered, he qualified P18 which is still in the hot spot of the first nine rows we alluded to earlier.

He was at least top 10 in five-lap averages and he’s finished top 10 in all three NextGen races at Pocono. He technically has a win here from 2022 but that was a race where Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified following post-race tech inspection so Elliott got the win.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $7,500

I know, I know, I know… Briscoe and Reddick are two of those “This guy again?” kind of plays. But hear me out. Briscoe hasn’t broken through for a win yet with Joe Gibbs Racing, but there are clearly signs of improvement. Even last week at Mexico City, he started P19 and was part of that early wreck that took Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson out of contention. Briscoe even lost the lead lap but battled back and fought hard throughout the day to finish 7th.

Briscoe finished 15th in 2022 and 2024 at Pocono with a lesser team. Obviously, Michigan went poorly two weeks ago but the Toyota’s have such a heavy presence in this week’s Playbook that I’m inclined to go back to him once again.

Martin Truex Jr.’s final years weren’t electric in the NextGen car. But in last year’s race he finished 8th in the 19-car with 5.75 dominator points and the year prior he finished 3rd with 14 dominator points.

I know I shouldn’t be too reliant on what MTJ did in this car. But I am also just trying to emphasize how good the Toyota’s have been at these larger ovals. So while it probably is nauseating seeing Reddick and Briscoe in here time and time again, I’m just not ready to give up on the potential. So based strictly off of pricing, I’m leaning towards Briscoe or Reddick early in the week. The starting spot for Briscoe will keep people away so I like building him as a driver that can potentially collect dominator points at a friendly price tag.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,500

I’m a really big fan of Bubba ahead of this race and this section is being written before Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. Bubba’s specialty might be the superspeedway tracks (Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta to an extent) but he also thrives on the larger intermediate tracks (Michigan, Indianapolis, and Pocono) that call for more horsepower.

Bubba grabbed a top five finish at last year’s race at Indy with 26 laps led. And just a few weeks ago he finished 4th at Michigan. Specifically at Pocono, he’s finished 11th or better in four straight races since joining 23XI. I am going to go as far as to say that he has some win juice as well but from a DFS play, he’s looking pretty solid for us this weekend.

Update: Bubba starts P34 for Sunday’s race because of a malfunction with the starter in his car. So it never fired up and he couldn’t qualify so he starts outside the top 30 and presents decent chalk at his price tag.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,800

Bowman is another relatively “safe” option that’s playable in all formats. There are some drivers in the value section starting very deep in this field and I’m just hoping they can squeeze out a top 20-25 finish. Bowman at least starts P25 and has the potential to finish top 10. But he also has a decent chance to destroy our lineups as his 2025 resume is littered with poor results.

Almost all of Hendrick Motorsports had an underwhelming day with qualifying. We know why for Byron but everyone else missed the mark which was odd since practice seemed to go better for most of their cars compared to qualifying. But Bowman qualified P25 while having 5-and-10-lap averages in the top 12 among the field.

He’s a previous Pocono winner from before the NextGen era but he also finished third in this race a year ago. I’ll take some stabs and mix him into my 20 GPP lineups for sure.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Josh Berry – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,200

So Berry’s team had to change the diffuser which isn’t something we usually hear about as part of the unapproved adjustments on Saturday. But it happened and he’ll start P35 on Sunday after not posting a qualifying lap.

It’s simply the position differential we’re targeting with Berry. Sure enough, the car should be good enough for a top 20 given the fact that he’s won this year (Vegas) and he has the affiliation with Team Penske.

Is he going to carry ownership? Absolutely. A good strategy to deploy in DFS is to lay off the value chalk. They’re priced down for a reason. So Berry’s definitely better for cash games because of the floor. But if playing him in GPP’s, we can probably look elsewhere and hope he experiences further issues.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $5,500

Stenhouse is one of those guys that I upgrade when we come to these tracks requiring more horsepower. He’s similar to Bubba in that sense but obviously doesn’t have as much upside. I feel that as long as he doesn’t wreck or have a mechanical issue, he should finish as a top 18 car at least. That’s where he finished in 2022. In 2023 he finished 7th at this track.

Even last year he finished 11th at Indianapolis and two weeks ago at Michigan he started P30 and finished 20th while finishing 13th at MIS in 2023. So I have no doubt that he’s a cheap option for us that can finish well while giving us some position differential.

My concern is that he seems hellbent on ruining Carson Hocevar’s day. Stenhouse has actually done well to keep the car clean and finish races this year. It’s a bit subjective but there’s an argument to be made that Hocevar gave Stenhouse his first DNF of the year at Nashville. And two weeks later the two had issues once again at Mexico City with Hocevar once again claiming he messed up and needed to get better. The whole “it’s a learning experience” thing is getting a bit exhausting. Stenhouse has vowed to get retaliation and it’s possible it happens this weekend. I just hope it doesn’t come at the expense of his DFS performance as he offers plenty of PD for this race.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $6,800

There’s a large overarching “Toyota” theme with this Playbook. If you look at the Driver Averages for Pocono, they filter the results since the start of the NextGen era. Five of the top seven average finishers are Toyota drivers. And Jones is included in that group.

In the NextGen era, Pocono is Jones’ best track in terms of average finish. And I feel even more confident in recommending him because Michigan is not just his home track, but also his second-best track. And that’s the one with strong correlation to Pocono. Jones has finished 14th or better in the three NextGen races at Pocono while gaining at least nine spots of position differential in each contest.

Just two weeks ago at Michigan we saw Jones start P22 and finish 11th. And again, Jones has gained 12+ spots of position differential in each of the last three NextGen races at his home track.

The Toyota’s bring big engines and fast cars to these larger tracks so I’ll lean into that narrative a bit for this weekend. Legacy Motor Club is also rounding into form nicely amidst the playoff push. Jones may have only finished 17th at Mexico City but at Charlotte, Nashville, and Michigan he finished 13th, 7th, and 11th respectively.

Jones and his teammate, John Hunter Nemechek, may have overqualified their cars for Sunday’s race. I’ll lean towards Jones who offers a little more PD and ownership shouldn’t be too high. Overall, both are GPP options but JHN is a massive risk from his starting spot.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,200

Allmendinger tags into the Playbook as another PD value option and one with top 20 upside. Dinger’s a veteran with plenty of experience on all tracks. And he’s only started outside the top 25 just one other time this year. So this doesn’t happen often.

Allmendinger falls into the majority of drivers who did not get a longer run in practice. And to top it off, he had an “issue” on his qualifying lap. I’m not sure what said issue was, and neither does the internet apparently, but he starts P33.

I want to believe this is still a top 20 car. Last year he finished 21st at Pocono and the year prior he finished 17th. But it feels like with Ty Dillon as his teammate this year, Dinger’s been having more problems while Dillon’s been having the more reliable rides. But he did finish 17th at Michigan a couple weeks ago and he was top five at Charlotte over Memorial Day Weekend. Here’s to hoping the car holds up and he can muscle out another top 20 for our NASCAR DFS lineups on Sunday.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-