Last week’s action at Circuit of the Americas saw Christopher Bell head to victory lane for the second consecutive week. For a driver that has previously raced for a Cup Series championship at Phoenix Raceway, he enters this week with plenty of momentum.

Kyle Busch was great in the short run last week but wore out his tires trying to hold off Bell over the final laps at COTA. Tyler Reddick managed to finish third after displaying poor speed in the short run. But one performance that may get overlooked goes to Chase Elliott. He was spun by Ross Chastain in the very first turn of the race and had to work his way back through the field. His fourth-place finish is one of the best top five finishes you could ever see so I found it worthwhile to give him some credit.

We finally have a NASCAR race on an oval, and while it is Phoenix, we have a good sample size of what to expect. And we have plenty of laps for this race to target multiple dominators as we look to continue building our winning NASCAR DFS lineups.

 

 

 

Phoenix Raceway is the host of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race later on this year. In the NextGen era, we’ve seen two races each year at Phoenix. While the track conditions vary for each race, we at least know what to expect with this track.

As we’ve already noted, Phoenix is a short, one-mile track. The first two turns are banked at nine degrees. The last two turns are banked at 11 degrees. The front stretch has nine degrees while the back stretch is at 11 degrees. The key feature to Phoenix Raceway is the dogleg coming out of turn three that is also a part of turn four. We’ll see several drivers dive down and try to gain track position by “cutting the course” per se.

 

Phoenix Raceway Trends

After two “drafting” tracks and a road course, we finally get a short track so we have over 300 laps to consider. Short tracks definitely require more attention when constructing NASCAR DFS lineups, which we’ll get to shortly.

Five of the six Phoenix races in the NextGen era have not needed overtime. And perhaps the most surprising aspect is that we typically see clean races at Phoenix. The first year of the NextGen era saw six cautions in the championship race for 39 laps. The very first NextGen race at Phoenix saw eight cautions for 52 laps. That’s fairly understandable considering we were very early in the NextGen era. Drivers and teams were still trying to figure things out with this model.

The last two years have featured tame racing. And remember, there are two cautions every race at the end of each stage. Over the last four races year there have been about four or five cautions on average for 30-35 laps. We will tick off more laps under caution compared to the previous three tracks simply due to the smaller size.

The other part of short track racing we need to come to terms with is the fact that 30-40% of the drivers in the field could finish off the lead lap. That’s significant for DFS because that can limit the DFS upside if a driver is caught one or two laps down. Only 19 of 40 drivers finished on the lead lap in last year’s Cup Series race. In last year’s spring race at Phoenix, 21 of 36 drivers finished on the lead lap. And because of how these cars are set up, even the slightest damage could be enough to end a driver’s day.

While Connor Zilisch’s Cup Series debut didn’t go well, he did grab the win in the Xfinity Series last Saturday and punched his ticket for the playoffs. NASCAR will see another debut at Phoenix this weekend. Katherine Legge will make her debut on Sunday, marking the first time a woman has attempted a NASCAR Cup Series race since Danica Patrick in 2018. With that said, she will be in some terrible equipment so I’m not expecting a noteworthy performance out of that car.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

So what conclusions can we draw from the last five race trends? We will naturally see movers. But how many BIG movers will we see at Phoenix? Across both Phoenix races in 2024, we saw seven drivers gain double-digit PD spots in the championship race while six did so in this race a year ago. In the three Phoenix races prior to 2024, only four drivers per race were able to do that.

Win equity primarily comes from the top eight. I know the table above only references the last five Phoenix races, but five of the six winners in the NextGen era have started P8 or higher. But even last year, Christopher Bell was able to win from P13.

Qualifying well doesn’t just mean win equity, but also we’ll see the top dominator candidates likely emerge from the top 10 as well. Over the last five races, 89% of the laps led have come from drivers starting in the top 10. Again, if we expand the sample size to include the very first NextGen race at Phoenix, we’ll find that 248-of-312 laps were led by drivers starting in the top 10. Chase Elliott, who started P11 for that race, led 50 laps.

So with all this information available to us, we can take a look at the DraftKings and FanDuel scoring trends below…

These charts are a bit of a departure from the last few races where PD was king. That’s because we’re finally leaning into dominator points. The top scorers are typically coming from inside the top 10 because of the potential to lead laps and grab the fastest laps in clean air. So our builds should be centered on at least two dominators for Sunday’s race. We’ll still want to mix in PD, but we don’t need to dip too deep into the starting lineup. As you can see from the scoring averages above, those drivers haven’t historically scored well because they likely lose the lead lap.

And with a lengthy practice session Saturday afternoon, we have a good idea of who is fast on the longer run, which could play a role if we get longer green flag runs for this race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Shriners Children’s 500

So to reinforce some lineup construction thoughts, all my lineups on DraftKings for this race are focusing on at least two dominators. I’ll share my thoughts on those options shortly. But we also have plenty of PD options for this race. For those PD options, I’m fine eating chalk and investing in drivers starting deep in the field. Be mindful there are A LOT of popular options for this slate. So for your GPP lineups, try to fit in at least one driver in each build that’ll come in at under 15% ownership.

 

Top Shriners Children’s 500 DFS Picks

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Bell is coming off back-to-back wins at Atlanta and COTA. The two wins are likely contributing to him being the most expensive driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel. But now we go to Phoenix, which is a track that’s right up his alley. He’s good at the drafting tracks and he’s a solid road course driver. But Bell is excellent on short, flat tracks.

Bell won this race a year ago and was top five in the championship race last fall. In both races he had a driver rating of 125+ and led 193 laps combined between both contests.

Bell also finished sixth in both Richmond races where he led 131 total laps. He finished fourth in the inaugural race at Iowa last summer and he’s won two of the last three races at New Hampshire. 

He’s won two of the first three races this year. But even if he had zero wins so far in 2025, he’d still be a top play just given how good he and Joe Gibbs Racing are on this track type. The price tag is high, but there are so many laps in this race that he can pay it off easily if he emerges as the dominator we expect him to be.

Now I am tempering expectations mildly because the practice speeds weren’t anything spectacular. But I am leaning into the track history and his ability to crush it on this type of track.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

I want to briefly mention why I’m not highlighting Joey Logano in the top-tier. Logano has won two-of-six NextGen races at Phoenix. He was also crowned the Cup Series champion in those respective 2022 and 2024 seasons because of the wins at Phoenix. But he hasn’t been as great in the spring race. He wrecked a year ago, in 2023 he finished 11th, and in 2022 he finished eighth. In the three spring races at Phoenix, Logano has led a total of four laps. With that said, Logano’s speed in practice was top notch.

But let’s highlight Blaney. Logano’s good but he has a tendency to run hotter later in the season. Blaney has been consistently good at Phoenix. Blaney has an average finished of 2.8 in the six NextGen races at Phoenix. He doesn’t have any wins over that span, but he is the owner of four runner-up finishes.

Is there dominator potential here? Yes, because in 2022 he led 252 total laps across the two Phoenix races. But over the last four races he’s only led 14 total laps here. With that said, he did lead 201 in a win last year at Iowa. He also has two wins at Martinsville in the NextGen era with an average finish of 3.5 so there is plenty of upside for Blaney.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

Kyle Larson is usually in play most weeks and that’s the case once again for Sunday’s race in Phoenix. For starters he offers PD. And it’s the kind of PD where we have an elite driver in elite equipment and barring an absolute disaster, he should be able to move up.

We do need to be mindful that some of his pit crew was suspended for this race because they lost a wheel at COTA last week but overall this is a spot Larson can crush from P17 as long as the pit stops aren’t too bad.

Based on the practice speeds, his car isn’t great in the short run. And that’s fine because we are expecting longer green flag runs for this race. Larson was 11th in 10-lap speed and 10th in 15-lap speed. But for the longer metrics (20, 25, and 30 laps) he was in the top four. I’m not expecting him to win this race, but he has three top five finishes here in his last four races and as we can see from the chart above, the P17 starting spot has provided plenty of good DFS scores.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Byron starts on the pole after he was audibly unhappy with his qualifying effort. So be it, he’s got the most desirable starting spot for this race at the end of the day. Byron has the second-best average finish in the NextGen era at Phoenix just behind Ryan Blaney. And I can’t even say “just behind” with much conviction because Blaney is at 2.8 while Byron is at 8.3 but I digress.

Byron’s speed in practice is respectable. He was top seven in all metrics. But we do give him some added juice because he’s on the pole. He’s going to have the benefit of clean air and if he runs away with stage one, then he’s likely optimal if he finishes in the top 10.

Byron won this race two years ago and even finished third here in the fall. Just seeing how the polesitter has performed in the fantasy scoring charts above gives us confidence in the play. But we can once again consider Logano who starts P2, who had arguably better speed in practice.

If you want some additional pivots off both Byron and Logano, I do like Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher. Both have really good average finishes at Phoenix and the practice speeds were good for both. Buescher likely goes overlooked for deeper PD plays that we’ll get to shortly. But Reddick is very sneaky to get to the front and lead laps and he showcased great speed in practice.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

We’re going back to the well with Briscoe this week. His overall result at COTA is rather misleading. He was able to navigate his way through the field and he had a top eight car last week. And he came in under 15% rostership. An unfortunate pit strategy in stage three had him restart P26 with about 16 laps to go but he worked his way back up to finish 14th. We should tuck this memory away for the next road race because that result doesn’t do his performance justice.

But so far it’s been a good week for Briscoe. His penalty following the Daytona 500 was rescinded and he got his points back. This changes his outlook for the rest of the year as he isn’t as reliant on getting a win. But we know the car is still good enough to do so.

Briscoe won the very first NextGen race at Phoenix three years ago with Stewart-Haas Racing. And similar to his teammate Christopher Bell, we know Joe Gibbs Racing excels on short, flat tracks. Briscoe got a significant equipment upgrade by joining JGR this year. In four of the previous six races at Phoenix he’s finished ninth or better while he’s also performed well at Martinsville (five top 10’s in six NextGen races) and New Hampshire (runner-up to Bell last year). Again, those performances were with SHR. It’ll be exciting to see what he does with this 19-car for Joe Gibbs Racing.

I am mildly worried about the lack of trailblazing speed in practice. But the PD is there because he starts P30 and it’s a track he’s won at previously. There will be plenty of ownership coming his way due to the PD upside and equipment so tread carefully with your exposures.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

On paper, Chastain’s one of the best plays on the slate and I anticipate a lot of ownership going his way. And I’ll be on board! The practice-to-qualifying table loves him because he was top 10 in several long run metrics in practice, but he qualified outside the top 20. So this is a PD play we can get behind when big movers may be hard to come by.

From P24, Chastain can pay off the price tag with a top 12 finish. He has the third-best average finish at Phoenix in the NextGen era at 9.2 and he won here in the fall of 2023 (to the chagrin of Ryan Blaney). Overall, there’s plenty to like so long as Chase Elliott doesn’t try to get revenge for last week’s debacle on the first lap at COTA.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

I know I preached that PD from deep in the field is risky, but Gibbs is in equipment good enough to move up. I have some concerns about the long run speed. As you can see from the P2Q chart, the car arguably got worse in the longer runs. But at the end of the day, it’s still a Joe Gibbs Racing car on a short, flat track. The speed will be there to move up early and he should maintain the lead lap so long as there are no issues.

Gibbs finished third in this race a year ago, but he had a much better starting spot. But he still led a good amount of laps as well. The practice speeds indicate it’s a top 20 car. The fact that he’s with JGR tells me it should be a top 15 car. Even if he finished 18th with no dominator points, he’s hitting 5X value. If he finishes 14th or better he’s likely optimal as he exceeds 6X value. Popular play? Yes, but I don’t think a top 15 finish from Gibbs is too much to ask for.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $7,200

I’d prefer to pay up for Ty Gibbs because he offers two more spots of PD despite the heavier price tag on both sites. Truthfully, this isn’t a great track for Bowman. And that’s a bit of a shame because this is considered his home track as he’s originally from Tucson.

Bowman did run the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. He won the pole and led 50 laps but finished second. It’s possible he may have taken some notes away to feel better out his prospects for Sunday’s race.

In the NextGen era he has an average finishing position of 18.0 which isn’t great. And it looks even worse when you notice his average starting spot is 19.2 so he’s hardly moving up from where he qualifies. Fortunately for our NASCAR DFS lineups, he starts P32 for Sunday’s race. The speed wasn’t great in practice, but it does indicate that he has a top 20 car, and as he should since he drives for Hendrick Motorsports. If he finishes 18th, which is his average finish over the last six Phoenix races, then he’s paying off his price tag.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,000

Considering where Chastain, Gibbs, and Bowman qualified we’re going to likely get some leverage options in the $7K range on DraftKings. I can’t believe I’ve now featured Austin Cindric in three straight NASCAR DFS Playbooks, but maybe he turns a corner in 2025.

Cindric was strictly a PD play last week and he didn’t come close to paying off his price tag. That’s a shame considering he has a decent road course background. But we wipe the slate clean and try to find a high upside play this week. We know his teammates (Logano and Blaney) are in play as potential dominators. Cindric starts P14 so it’s likely he flies under the radar.

Cindric’s car may not have the long run speed of his teammates. But across the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-lap metrics he had top eight speed. On the longer run, he slipped up a bit. I know we struggle playing him with confidence. And by no means would I play him in cash games. This is strictly a GPP play that maybe comes in at sub-15% ownership. If he can avoid chaos and steal a top eight finish, he might be in the optimal lineup.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,800

Suarez isn’t a leverage play by any means. He’s affordable and starts outside the top 30. Practice speeds indicate that he may even have a top 15 car in the longer runs. So it’s good to see that the Trackhouse cars pack some speed even though he and Chastain qualified poorly.

He starts one spot ahead of Alex Bowman, but you get more savings here. In the six NextGen races at Phoenix, Suarez has an average finishing position of 14.8 with three straight finishes of 13th or better. He only needs to finish 19th to return 5X value. A top 15 finish with no dominator points would return 44 fantasy points, which is over 6X value.

Austin Dillon – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $4,500

Overall, Austin Dillon is rather hit-or-miss at Phoenix. Is he capable of a top 15 finish? He sure is. In two-of-six NextGen races at Phoenix he’s finished top 13 and in another race, he finished 16th. Unfortunately, in the two Phoenix races last year he finished 27th and 32nd.

There are some reasons for optimism though. For starters, the price tag is great for a driver who can finish top 16 so long as he runs a clean race and maintains the lead lap. But he also finished sixth at Gateway and seventh at Martinsville-2.

Moreover, we’re seeing the same tire combination as last year’s Richmond-2 race. That race was especially controversial because Austin Dillon actually won the race, but he wrecked two drivers to get the win. But let’s not lose sight of the fact that the car was very strong that day.

Am I giving Dillon much faith to get a win? Not really, but there’s potential for a top 10 at a very affordable price tag and if Richard Childress Racing is going to be as competitive as some media pundits believe they’ll be then this is a good buy-low opportunity on Dillon. The practice speeds indicate he may have top 15 speed in the longer run, but for him to break the slate we probably need a top 10 finish with some of the chalk blowing up.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $3,000

This is a great price tag on Zane Smith. Unfortunately, he’s probably going to be a very popular value play this week and that’s always a concern. Chalk in this range? Yikes! We’ll see how the ownership projections shake out Sunday morning. But as of Saturday night, this is a play I might just try to match the field on.

Let’s start with the good. When Smith ran the Craftsman Truck Series, he raced here four times and never had a driver rating below 100. In three of those four races he led 35+ laps while grabbing a win in 2022 and a runner-up finish in 2020. Now the Truck Series is vastly different from the Cup Series, but I take solace in knowing he performs well on short, flat tracks.

Smith also had some very fast practice speeds on Saturday. He was 12th in 10-lap average but he was top five in the longer run metrics. That’s a bit unheard of for a driver this cheap. The P2Q table absolutely loves this play because he qualified poorly but had a ton of speed in practice.

Now the concern is going to be that despite the speed in practice, this isn’t the kind of equipment we have complete confidence in. So he’s very playable in all formats but it’s always risky to go “all in” on a single value play.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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