We are into the Round of 12 for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs after a WILD race at Bristol last Saturday night. Christopher Bell got the win and it was a clean sweep by Joe Gibbs Racing as they won all three races in the first round of the playoffs. For Bell, the win ended a long stretch of winless races after he won three straight earlier in the year. But all in all, it wasn’t the greatest racing, but it was entertaining with the massive tire fall off while Goodyear and NASCAR had to call an audible to give each team an extra set of tires in the middle of the race.

But we turn our attention to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for our NASCAR DFS picks for the Mobil 1 301. New Hampshire is a track that usually falls on the schedule in June. But this year it winds up on the playoff schedule and funny enough, this is probably Christopher Bell’s best track. Can he go back-to-back and make it four straight wins for Joe Gibbs Racing? Let’s take a look at this week’s top NASCAR DFS picks for the Mobil 1 301 from New Hampshire!

 

 

 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

New Hampshire Motor Speedway falls into the category of short, flat tracks which once again plays to Joe Gibbs Racing’s strengths. More specifically, this is a great track for Christopher Bell. He’s won two of the last three Cup Series races at New Hampshire and he led 149 laps in last summer’s race at this track. From 2018-2024, Bell raced in four NASCAR Xfinity Series races at New Hampshire and he won all four leading a total of 473 laps across those four races.

It’s truly baffling just how elite he is here and of course he comes in with the momentum of last week’s win. But New Hampshire is a one-mile flat track in the shape of a perfect oval. It features progressive banking of just 2-to-7 degrees in the turns which is actually flatter than Martinsville which see 12 degrees of banking in the turns. So this is definitely one of the flatter tracks on the entire schedule.

Some comparable tracks include the ones listed above. Really any flat track is a good comparison, but Phoenix also correlates well with New Hampshire because of the size, but Phoenix has such a unique shape to it with the dog leg. Sure enough, Christopher Bell won that race earlier this year too.

But we kick off a new round in the playoffs. The next three races will determine the Round of Eight in October and then we’ll whittle the field to four for Phoenix the first weekend of November. As things stand right now Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick are the four drivers below the cut line. But they’re all within three points of said line. So no one is in serious trouble as of the time of publishing this Playbook. Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell are all 20+ points above the cut line. But no position is safe or secure. Winning this race will lock the driver into the next round but these standings will certainly see some shake up.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The starting spot charts are certainly interesting and I hope to shed some light on them. The P2 and P4 starting spots stand out. The P4 starting spot has won two of the last five races, in addition to finishing third or better in four of the last five races. The P2 starting spot has finished second or better in three of the last five New Hampshire races. So with that kind of track position, we obviously get win equity and dominator potential. Martin Truex Jr. won this race in 2023 starting from P2 and he led 254 laps with 88 fastest laps for a massive score of 149.1 points on DraftKings. Last year, Christopher Bell won this race from P4 with 149 laps led and 43 fastest laps for a score of 104.6 points on DraftKings.

You certainly can take a two-dominator approach with your builds. However, those laps led totals from the last two races really stick out. This race will have 301 laps and in the last two races at this track we’ve seen a driver in each race either lead close to half the laps or well over half the laps. So it certainly feels like you can take some shots with a solo dominator build because we’re seeing a variety of drivers starting outside the top 10 score 35-40 fantasy points. 

This track can be difficult to pass at, but position differential does manage to prevail. For example, in the last two races where we’ve largely seen a solo dominator from Joe Gibbs Racing, there have been a total of 11 drivers starting P20 or deeper in the field that move up and finish in the top 15.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Mobil 1 301

Nothing too drastic to take away from the practice-to-qualifying results. They did run in separate groups and the nice thing is they got the cars on track around the same time this race will be run. So sure, some of the results are misleading because the Group A drivers had the cooler track conditions. But P&Q was run after Saturday’s Truck Series race so there was a good amount of rubber on the track.

Ryan Blaney appeared to have the fastest car on the track and he’ll start on the front row. William Byron wasn’t too far behind him in practice. It is a little surprising that the Toyota’s didn’t look great. I’m not sure if that’s maybe an issue with this race being run three months later than normal or if they just have the cars set up for race trim. But it was an odd practice and qualifying effort from the heavy hitters in the Toyota camp.

 

Mobil 1 301 Top Tier DFS Picks

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

I don’t need to be too specific here because I’ve already mentioned just how good Christopher Bell is at this track. There’s clear dominator potential and he’s won two of the last three NextGen races at this track. We don’t go too crazy with leverage because anything could happen that could ruin his day. But even dating back to his Xfinity Series days it’s clear that this is among his favorite tracks.

He’s technically credited with four wins on the year, and one of those was Phoenix where he led over 100 laps. But he also won the All-Star race this year on a short, flat track (North Wilkesboro) but that won’t count toward the season victory total. Now he hasn’t been incredibly dominant the last handful of races entering this weekend. Even last week he only led 18 laps in a 500-lap race. But this one is right up his alley and he’s the easy favorite to win this race.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

I don’t want to overload the top tier section with three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, so I’ll limit myself to just two. Briscoe has the second-best average finish among active drivers in this field that have run multiple NextGen races at New Hampshire. I phrase it that way because technically Josh Berry and John Hunter Nemechek have better average finishes, but they’ve only raced here once in the NextGen era. Martin Truex Jr. has a better average finish as well, but he’s not an active driver.

But funny enough, Briscoe is now in MTJ’s old car and this car has historically been great at New Hampshire. In 2022, Truex started on the pole and finished fourth with 172 laps led and he swept the first two stages. Then in 2023 he won this race with 254 laps led and again he swept the first two stages.

Briscoe’s results at New Hampshire progressively got better each year with Stewart-Haas Racing. In 2021 he finished 27th. In 2022 he finished 15th. In 2023 he was top 10. And last year, in the final season of SHR, Briscoe finished as the runner-up to Christopher Bell.

He’s getting hot at the right time. He’s got two wins on the year but he’s been running up front in the playoffs. He led 309 laps at Darlington and got the win, then led 15 at Gateway where he finished as the runner-up, and last week he grabbed a top 10 at Bristol with 127 laps led. He’s definitely trending in the right direction ahead of this race.

Now it is worth mentioning the JGR cars weren’t great in practice while Bell and Briscoe qualified outside the top 15. Both are still in play as potential dominators and winners, but it won’t happen early. And I don’t think there’s a race narrative where both collect an abundance of dominator points so at their price tags, I wouldn’t play them together in tournaments.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,000

Team Penske and their affiliate car (Josh Berry’s 21-car for Wood Brothers) showed off great speed in practice. Blaney was easily the class of the field in practice and he was outstanding in the long run. Blaney starts on the front row next to teammate, Joey Logano.

Getting the jump on his teammate could be tricky but based on pure speed from Saturday’s practice session, it could happen after a few laps as everyone settles into a longer run. But nobody should be surprised by the qualifying results as it appears Penske is once again getting hot at the right time for the playoffs.

Blaney’s track history is a bit suspect though. In the last three races he’s finished outside the top 15. The last two years he qualified P5 and P2 and ran in the top five for the first two stages but finished outside the top 20. We don’t need to go all in with this play because he might be 40% owned in tournaments. But we can get to 25-30% exposure and find leverage elsewhere.

William Byron – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

The broadcast made it well known that this track is not Hendrick Motorsports’ best as you have to go all the way back to Kasey Kahne’s win in 2012 to find the organization’s last trip to victory lane at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Byron qualified P5 and may not draw nearly as much ownership as Blaney or Logano, who start on the front row. But he still has great track history rolling off P5. If you look at the practice-to-qualifying table, you’ll see that Byron was top five in basically all the short-and-long-run metrics. He was really only behind Blaney in terms of long run speed in the second practice group.

Now similar to Blaney, Byron doesn’t have great track history here so we’re really hoping those two can buck some trends. Blaney at least has a couple top five finishes here from before the NextGen era. But Byron has raced here seven times in his career and doesn’t have a single top 10 finish, but he’s had success at other short tracks and previously won at Iowa this past summer.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

We kick off the mid-tier of our NASCAR DFS picks with Chase Elliott. Elliott’s car didn’t have the greatest short run speed in practice, but it got much better in the long runs as he ranked top five in 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. That might explain why the car fired off and qualified poorly for a quick effort. Elliott wasn’t happy with it and so he rolls off P27 and will be a chalky position differential play.

We just mentioned how this track isn’t in Hendrick’s wheelhouse, but Elliott’s been decent here. He finished second here in 2022 and led 41 laps here in the 2024 race at New Hampshire. Moreover, he usually qualifies much better here. Four of his last five qualifying efforts at NHMS resulted in starting spots of P3 or better. I’m thinking the car is just set up well for the long run by the time we go racing on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $10,000

Reddick is still alive in the playoffs after skating by and advancing to the Round of 12 based on points. His best result in the previous round was a runner-up finish at Darlington. We expect him to run well there, but he only led three laps. He finished outside the top 10 at both Gateway and Bristol.

However, maybe there’s some optimism with Reddick at New Hampshire. Historically this isn’t a great track for him and it’s not really one that caters to his strengths. But 23XI Racing has the affiliation with Joe Gibbs Racing as Toyota partners. In 2023 and 2024, Reddick’s first two seasons with 23XI Racing, he finished 6th in both New Hampshire races and even led 53 laps in last year’s race to hit the optimal lineup alongside Bell.

When we look at the scope of his season, it hasn’t been great. He won five races in his first two years with 23XI Racing but he hasn’t won a single race this year. Teammate Bubba Wallace has easily had a better season. But Reddick might be flying under the radar as a sneaky dominator for this race. Reddick wasn’t great in practice but like most of the Toyota’s I’m of the mindset they’ll show up for race trim. He rolls off P4 and is a nice contrarian dominator candidate that won’t cost you very much.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,500

Like most of the Toyota’s in this field, Bubba Wallace wasn’t elite in practice, but he has a good starting spot of P14 which gives him a little position differential to work with. And Bubba’s actually come a long way and improved greatly this year on the short, flat tracks.

Bubba finished 3rd at Martinsville in the spring, 6th at Iowa over the summer, and while he finished 28th at Richmond toward the end of the regular season he did lead 123 laps in that race.

He’s also managed to lead double-digit laps in all three playoff races so far including 73 at Gateway where he finished 8th. Even if he just cracks the top eight with a handful of dominator points he has a shot at hitting the optimal lineup. But this is the best Bubba’s looked in his career and he has quite the ceiling entering this race.

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

So from Bubba Wallace and all the way down to Cindric, we have a handful of drivers who have appeal like Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and even Kyle Busch. I’m going to take the safety net of Cindric because he’s the cheapest of this bunch and he offers the most position differential.

Cindric is a bit of a black sheep with Penske because Blaney, Logano, and Berry all qualified in the first two rows but Cindric qualified P22 and the car wasn’t elite in practice. But it’s because his teammates qualified so well and showed great speed that I’m optimistic he can show up looking sporty on Sunday. But he doesn’t exactly have the best track history so this really is a bit of a gamble.

But if Cindric can just avoid beating himself, then he can move up if he runs a clean race. If he can stay alive and point his way into the next round he has Talladega on the schedule in the Round of Eight and that’s a race he can possibly win to qualify for the championship race in Phoenix. It’s wild to even consider that as a possibility but anything could happen. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Josh Berry – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

These next two drivers are specifically to be used only in GPP’s. And you don’t necessarily need to use them in smaller field single-entry contests. But these next two options are large-field, multi-entry contest recommendations. Josh Berry rolls off P3 behind Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano and because of the likelihood that he probably loses positions, nobody is going to want to play him.

Berry comes from a short, flat track background. In his lone Cup Series race with Stewart-Haas Racing last year, he started P10 and finished 3rd. Even this year he finished 8th at Richmond, 4th at Phoenix, and he was 7th last year at Iowa with 32 laps led.

The pressure of the playoffs is off his shoulders. A disastrous Round of 16 kept him from moving on. Now he can just focus on finishing the season strong and collecting good results. Vegas is still on the playoff schedule and Berry shocked everybody by winning there in the spring. The practice speeds were pretty solid and it looks like he matched the setups of Blaney and Logano. It wouldn’t surprise me if he grabbed another top five finish with some dominator points along the way. But again, we’re only using him in large-field tournament contests.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

This is just an abomination of a price tag for Alex Bowman. Yeah he got bounced from the playoffs after a disastrous Round of 12 but a week ago for Bristol he was $8,100 on DraftKings. The cheapest he had been all year was $7,100 for Iowa. And now he’s $6,800 for New Hampshire?

When you get to this price range you just want drivers that can finish well. Bowman’s had a bad year, there’s no arguing that. But the equipment is easily the best in the value tier. In six of his last eight races at New Hampshire, Bowman’s finished 15th or better. In 2022, the first year of the NextGen car he got caught in a wreck on lap 5. And then last year his engine blew up in the second stage. By all means if all things go well and he has no issues, he’s probably safe for another top 15 finish, and that’s probably his floor.

As far as this year goes on the comparable tracks, he finished 7th at Phoenix, 4th at North Wilkesboro (exhibition race), 7th at Iowa, and he was the runner-up at Richmond. This should be a driver priced in the $7K range not the $6K range. He did qualify very well (starting P7) so we can only use him in tournaments. But that’s okay because he won’t come with a lot of ownership. He starts with great track position and still has a great crew chief in Blake Harris. This car is good enough to hold its spot and still score well.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

JHN needed some variance in this race a year ago but hey the guy started P28 and finished 8th and was easily in the optimal lineup. It’s not even last year’s race that piques my interest. This guy has been running so well of late that it’s shocking DraftKings isn’t adjusting his price.

As a full-time Cup Series driver, JHN’s average finish in 2020 with Front Row Motorsports was 22.4 with just three top 10 finishes. Then he spent a few seasons in the Truck and Xfinity Series. Last year with Legacy Motor Club he had an average finish of 25.4 with four top 10 finishes. This year he has an average finish of 18.8 (career best) with a pair of top five finishes and eight top 10 finishes. He’s doubled his career top 10 finishes this season and he has 13 finishes in the top 15 which nearly doubled his totals from his two previous full-time seasons.

Entering New Hampshire, he’s finished 17th or better in six of the last eight races. Specifically in the playoffs, he’s finished 4th at Darlington (started P30), 6th at Gateway (starting P20), and 14th at Bristol (started P19). He’s really made some tremendous strides this season and DraftKings is failing to raise his price tag. So we’ll ride the momentum of this affordable gem another week and hope for similar upside to last year’s race. He also previously won at New Hampshire in the Xfinity Series during the 2023 season.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $4,500

Suarez starts P32 after a really bad qualifying effort, but he had respectable speed in practice. For a driver priced down, he maintained really solid long run speed in practice. Suarez won’t be returning to Trackhouse Racing next year and his plans for 2026 haven’t been revealed.

Previously I was a bit worried because Suarez missed the playoffs while his teammates made it in. So resources and attention were allocated elsewhere. But SVG got bounced from the playoffs so maybe there’s a bit more juice for Suarez this week. He certainly offers plenty of position differential and has an average finish of 15.3 over his last three races here. I’d be content if he could somehow finish in the top 20.

The track position to start isn’t very good but this track is much larger than Bristol so the back of the field doesn’t get lapped as quickly. If he can maintain the lead lap and just chip away at a few spots with the long run speed he displayed on Saturday then this is a value play that can pay off for our NASCAR DFS picks.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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