We’re nearing the halfway point of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Ryan Blaney got a crucial win at New Hampshire last week and secured his spot into the Round of Eight, and it honestly feels like he’ll be back in the championship picture for Phoenix to finish off the season.

New Hampshire is typically a track that Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated when it previously hit the schedule in the summer. But last week was severely underwhelming. None of their drivers finished in the top five. Nobody qualified particularly well. And the biggest storyline coming away from that race was the drama within the team as Denny Hamlin wrecked Ty Gibbs for racing the JGR playoff drivers a bit too hard and not conceding positions to them. JGR swept all three races in the first round of the playoffs but got off to a horrendous start in the second round.

But we turn our attention to Kansas Speedway. In terms of the quality of racing in the NextGen era, Kansas has delivered more often than not. Let’s dig in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Hollywood Casino 400!

 

 

 

Kansas Speedway

Kansas Speedway is your typical “cookie cutter” track in that it’s a 1.5-mile tri-oval but we do get a good mix of multiple grooves and some tire wear. Is the tire wear as aggressive as Homestead or Darlington? No, but it produces enough to come into play on the longer runs. The most comparable track is going to likely be Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which appears on the schedule again in the next round of the playoffs. But we can pull comparisons from several other tracks like Darlington and Homestead for their multiple grooves and tire wear. We can also consider Charlotte Motor Speedway as well since they run the same intermediate aero package.

When they first introduced the NextGen car, the Toyota’s dominated at this track. More specifically, 23XI Racing was elite here. Kurt Busch won here in the spring of 2022 and then Bubba Wallace got the win in the fall of the same year. Denny Hamlin then won in the spring of 2023 for JGR, and then Tyler Reddick got 23XI Racing back to victory lane in the fall of that year.

But over the last few races it’s been the Chevrolets that have taken the checkered flag at Kansas. Kyle Larson has won the last two spring races at Kansas while Ross Chastain won this race a year ago as a non-playoff driver. If there’s one thing Ross loves doing in the playoffs, it’s winning races when he’s already been eliminated. We can’t solely look at how the trends have gone the last handful of years. We do need to be mindful of Penske’s run in the playoffs the last few seasons and we can typically trust practice data more for this race than others.

Here’s a link to see the current playoff standings heading into this weekend. It’s somewhat exciting that three previous Kansas winners currently sit below the cut line, so I expect some aggressive moves and strategies from those drivers, especially the 23XI Racing pair. We approach each race with a clean slate so let’s break down the trends and NASCAR DFS picks for the Hollywood Casino 400!

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The data above represents the last five Kansas races. So we do exclude the 2022 season which had a little more variance. This data does not include the wins for Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace. 

The polesitter score is obviously inflated because of the beneficial track position and win equity. The last two polesitters have each led over 100 laps at this track. A year ago, Christopher Bell led 122 laps and finished 7th after starting P1. This past spring, Kyle Larson started and finished 1st with over 200 laps led.

The 2025 spring race could very well be a bit of an outlier. Typically at Kansas we see quite a few dominators. Even a year ago when Christopher Bell led over 100 laps, there were three other drivers that led over 20 laps. In the spring of 2024 there were four drivers who led 40+ laps. In the fall of 2023 there were three drivers who led 40+ laps but there were also six drivers who led double-digit laps. 

This is a great track to go for multiple dominators. Strategy and track position will shift throughout the race so if you have two or three drivers that can cycle to the front for a long run you’re looking great for tournaments.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Hollywood Casino 400

This is normally a track where practice data is pretty reliable. However, the playoff drivers were struck with some bad luck in Group B Saturday as two separate cautions essentially split the session into three parts. It was not a great day for Team Penske. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano each had a flat tire. Blaney is heading to a backup car while Logano qualified poorly. Austin Cindric was also notably slow.

So I will lean on practice data a little bit in the write-ups below but I am trying to be mindful of the variance on Saturday while lending transparency to the Group A drivers.

 

Hollywood Casino 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Larson definitely doesn’t have the best momentum coming into Kansas. But he actually had a decent run at New Hampshire last weekend. That’s not a track where Hendrick Motorsports historically does well. But Larson started P16 and finished 7th with 5.75 dominator points. All in all, not a bad day at a short, flat track.

Larson’s track history at Kansas and the comparable tracks will be difficult to ignore this weekend. In this race a year ago he started P11 and finished 26th. But he won the last two spring races at this track and he was the runner-up in the spring race in 2023. In the last 10 races at Kansas he’s led 60+ laps on seven different occasions. In this playoff race two years ago he led 99 laps while finishing 4th.

There’s plenty of win equity and a good chance for him to finish well. He’s not in any danger of falling below the cut line in this race unless he wrecks. He’s currently 41 points to the good so while he still has a great chance to win, he’ll be racing for stage points which hopefully correlates to consistently good track position and dominator points.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

Hamlin was solid in his respective group’s practice session arguably posting the third best overall speed among the playoff drivers behind Larson and Christopher Bell. Hamlin has track position over those two as he’ll start P2 at a track he’s performed well at.

At this point in the NextGen era we’ve seen seven races at Kansas. Hamlin’s worst performance came this past spring when he finished outside the top 30 with a drivetrain issue. Prior to that he had finished 8th or better in the previous six races including two-runner up finishes and a win. In total, he’s won here four times in his career with consistent dominator potential. He’s had a solid year overall on the comparable tracks and Joe Gibbs Racing all put forth solid qualifying efforts on Saturday.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,500

Bell was solid alongside Larson and Hamlin in practice. Bell has historically been a great qualifier at Kansas having won the pole in four of the last seven Kansas races. For as great as the results have been, he’s yet to get a win here, but there’s definitely potential.

A year ago in this race, Bell started on the pole and led 122 laps before finishing 7th. He returned earlier this year with consistent top five speed and he finished second. He’s led laps in every single NextGen race at Kansas. While the overall results on the comparable tracks have been rather underwhelming by Bell’s standards, JGR did look very sporty on Saturday and he will likely be in contention on Sunday. All three of their playoff drivers are in this section after a very inspiring session on Saturday.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $10,500

Briscoe won the pole on Saturday for the SEVENTH time this season. It’s the most since Kyle Busch won the pole eight times back in 2017. Briscoe wasn’t nearly as inspiring in practice as his teammate were, but we’ve seen this time and time again with the 19-car; they just come through in qualifying and nail the track position.

Briscoe doesn’t have the greatest resume here. He certainly lacks the resumes of Larson, Hamlin, and Bell. But a majority of his previous races here were with Stewart-Haas Racing. In his first Kansas race with Joe Gibbs Racing in the spring of this year, he started P19 and finished 4th. He also finished top five at Homestead, Charlotte, and he won Darlington just a couple weeks ago leading 309 laps after starting P2.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Joey Logano – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

It wasn’t a great afternoon for Team Penske on Saturday. After last week’s showing with Blaney getting the win at New Hampshire, and Penske overall being considered the favorites for a fourth straight Cup Series championship, the team couldn’t have had a worse experience during practice and qualifying.

Blaney cut a tire and wrecked his primary car bad enough that the team will be going to the organization’s backup. His practice results aren’t great simply because he only ran four laps with the primary car. Now if you’re of the mindset that you would rather pay up for dominator points, you won’t get much of an argument from me. That’s why Blaney isn’t featured up above.

Logano also had issues in practice and qualifying. He was slow to begin with and he had a flat tire as well. Ultimately, he qualified P35 so he offers plenty of position differential. So both Blaney and Logano are solid PD plays. A backup Penske car is still probably better than most of the field. And while Logano was slow on Saturday, the team could make unapproved adjustments and drop to the rear on Sunday. It wouldn’t matter much because they’re already starting P35 and wouldn’t sacrifice any track position to begin with. I prefer taking the savings with Logano as a cheaper PD option.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,000

If there’s one thing I’m certain of it’s that I’m notorious for getting Tyler Reddick wrong. When I think he’ll show up and dominate, he tends to struggle. When I’m way off him in terms of exposure, he turns into Jeff Gordon. I firmly believe both 23XI Racing drivers are in play for this race, but I’m going to highlight Bubba and I’ll explain why shortly.

The reality is that 23XI Racing limped into the Round of 12 after sub-par showings at Bristol and then both Reddick and Bubba Wallace did terrible at New Hampshire. Other playoff drivers scored more points and now both drivers from 23XI Racing are 20+ points below the cut line. But the Roval is coming up next week. Even if Reddick doesn’t win this race, he can still score well with a good finish and contend next week at Charlotte.

Bubba is a horrible road course driver. Is he the worst in the field? No. In fact, he’s gotten better at them. But with two races to go in this round Bubba is at the bottom of the playoff standings and he’s 27 points below the cut line. He’s a previous winner here and he knows he probably can’t make up much ground next week at the Roval.

Over the last four races at Kansas he’s finished outside the top 15 and he wrecked this past spring. The good news is that he finished 3rd at Homestead earlier in the year with 56 laps led and he just finished 6th at Darlington to start the playoffs. But Bubba and his team know they likely need to win this race to move on so I expect them to be aggressive. This is definitely more of a GPP recommendation than it is a cash game suggestion because he does start P7.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Buescher had a pretty mediocre qualifying effort but he showed very good speed in Group A’s practice session. When interviewed, he seemed pretty happy and excited about his car for Sunday’s race. We love picking up on little notes like that directly from the drivers.

Buescher has finished 11th or better in three straight races at Kansas, coincidentally those are the three races the Toyota’s have failed to win in the NextGen era. And we also can’t forget when he almost won here in the spring of 2024 but was edged out by Kyle Larson in the closest result in NASCAR history.

At his price tag the position differential and practice speed seem worth investing for our Hollywood Casino 400 NASCAR DFS picks. A top five finish would likely result in Buescher appearing in the optimal lineup.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $7,800

In this range on DraftKings we have Alex Bowman, Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, and Austin Cindric. All but Ty Gibbs offer position differential. And all were pretty slow in practice on Saturday. Bowman has elite track history so he’ll make the player pool below. But Kyle Busch has unloaded with horrible setups in consecutive weeks so he’s hard to trust despite starting P29. So I’ll take the easy layup with Keselowski.

Kez was caught in an accident this past spring so he finished 37th. Even a year ago he only finished 22nd. But his teammate, Chris Buescher, unloaded with great speed so I’m hoping that Keselowski can find something on Sunday. And similar to Logano, if he makes some unapproved adjustments to the car, then we aren’t worried. That can only help the car if I’m being honest. He would have to drop to the rear for the start of the race but he’s already starting outside the top 30 to begin with.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,000

Preece may fly under the radar a little bit. All three RFK drivers make the Playbook for slightly different reasons, but I am hoping that they share information and that Preece’s car is closer to Buescher’s setup than Keselowski’s.

The problem with Preece is that he ran in Group B during practice. And that session had two separate cautions that broke the session up. It helps explain why only 14 total drivers were able to get a 20-lap run in practice. So there are some unknowns with Preece so let’s be cautious and strictly use him in tournaments for Sunday.

He comes in with some momentum. He’s finished 21st or better in all four playoff races and on the comparable tracks this year he finished top 10 at Vegas, Homestead, Kansas-1, and Charlotte. So a good portion of the field may lay off this play based on the “practice speeds” but those numbers are a bit misleading.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $6,000

Next week is probably the week everyone wants to jump on Allmendinger because it’s a road course. More specifically, it’s the Roval where he’s had a ton of success throughout his career. But why not be a little early to the party, shall we?

Allmendinger starts P20 and usually this is a track where I want to lean into the long run metrics. Dinger ran in Group A where he was second in 10-lap average and then fastest in 15-lap average. But per his own words, he didn’t like the direction the car was heading after 15 laps. And it’s hard to gauge what the car looks like on the longer stretches because he didn’t register a 20-lap run.

He didn’t have a great showing here in the spring as he finished dead last after blowing up his engine. But in this aero package on the comparable tracks this season, he finished 8th or better at Vegas, Homestead, Charlotte, and Darlington-2.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $5,500

In recent weeks we’ve spent time highlighting Jones’ teammate, John Hunter Nemechek, who is still a good PD option, but we should really touch on Jones. He did slightly get into the wall in practice, but in Group A he was 3rd in 10-lap averages while ranking as the best in the longer metrics.

So there was optimism but some speculation as well following practice. But Jones backed it up with a good qualifying effort. He starts P10 so he’s only a tournament play for our NASCAR DFS lineups. He will draw little ownership but let’s not forget, it was just a few weeks ago that both Jones and JHN finished 3rd and 4th at Darlington with driver ratings over 100 and average running positions inside the top 10. Kansas is similarly a multi-groove track with some tire wear.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $5,000

Zane Smith’s team is apparently using the same car they had at Darlington four weeks ago. In that race he started P24 and finished 13th. The team believes they may have a top 10 in this ride, but they’ll have some work to do based on where they qualified. He loved the car following practice. In Group A he had the best 5-lap and 10-lap averages.

Aside from the Darlington-2 finish a few weeks back, he also finished 11th at Homestead, 12th at Darlington-1, and 16th in the first Kansas race this year. He is likely to draw some attention starting P28 but he has a chance to put up a great score if he can move up and keep the car clean.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-