The NASCAR Cup Series return to the streets of Chicago, Illinois for the third straight year to race on 4th of July weekend. This weekend/event has never really gone off without any issues. Weather played a severe role in the first version of this race back in 2023 that split the race across two days. And even last year’s event had rain impact practice and qualifying. And wouldn’t you know it? There’s about a 50% chance of rain today!

We’re also in Round 2 of the NASCAR In-Season Tournament. After Round 1, ZERO perfect brackets remained. We’re also running short on regular season races for drivers to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Including Chicago, we have just eight regular season races remaining. For as long as the NASCAR Cup Series season is, it always amazes me how fast the season goes by when the summer rolls around. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Grant Park 165!

 

 

 

The Chicago Street Course

The layout for this race hasn’t changed but you’ll also notice there aren’t any data or tables aside from practice-to-qualifying for this week’s Playbook. The sample size for this race is small and I just do not believe there’s anything we can take away from the first race aside from Shane van Gisbergen being absolutely elite at this layout. Two years after making his NASCAR debut, we can probably deduce that he’s the best stock car driver in the world on road courses.

I will link the Racing Reference data here for the 2023 race and the 2024 race. For the 2025 race we’re once again returning for 75 laps around this unique track layout. That gives us a max of 52.5 dominator points. But each of the last two races on this track have resulted in about 20 caution laps each race, which would cost us about nine points for fastest laps, so it’s possible we may only have 40-45 dominator points if this race has some carnage. SVG, at his price and starting spot this week, will need as many dominator points available as possible for him to make it to the optimal lineup with a win.

This layout isn’t like other road courses. Other tracks have more run-off and areas for cars to safely get off track and restart. This is a tight track so if a car spins or gets in the tire barrier then it’s likely to bring out a caution which will take fastest laps away from the field. If there’s rain and they have to put on the rain tires, it’s entirely possible we see another pile up like this one.

But we’re once again taking the approach of a standard road course lineup building approach. Yes, there is a road course stud on the pole for this race but there are a handful of chalky option starting deep in the field that can easily outscore him if they move up and finish well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Grant Park 165

The practice-to-qualifying table this week is in play only because I don’t trust the combined data from the first two races. So for the sake of providing some visuals, we have this table at least. But road courses also mean we don’t see many cars get a longer run for 15, 20, and/or 25 laps in practice. The longest run in yesterday’s practice session was 10 consecutive laps and only a dozen drivers registered a run that long.

The best cars/drivers in the field either qualified well or qualified poorly. Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin didn’t even post a qualifying lap after having issues in practice. In Bubba’s case he spun twice in qualifying and will join his boss at the back of the pack to start this race.

In my own opinion, practice speeds on road courses aren’t always indicative of the car being fast. Road course specialists can make their way around a track faster simply because they’re better at hitting their marks and making the track as short as possible. Let’s dig into the NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Grant Park 165!

 

 

 

Grant Park 165 DFS Picks

Shane Van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Entering Sunday there have now been five total Chicago street races over the last three seasons: three for Xfinity and two for Cup. SVG has won three of those races and he went back to victory lane on Saturday as he started on the pole and won the latest Xfinity Series race on the streets of Chicago leading 27 of the 50 laps.

Now prior to qualifying yesterday I did mention that his ceiling for that race was 80 fantasy points at the price of $12,500. He posted 57.15 fantasy points on DraftKings, but you didn’t necessarily need him in your builds to win big. 

For Sunday’s Cup race we’re seeing a cheaper price tag with 52.5 dominator points available. So his ceiling for this race is 97.5 fantasy points on DraftKings. But that won’t happen because there will be cautions and he simply won’t lead every lap.

However, he is still an elite road racer at the end of the day and he won the inaugural Cup Series race in Chicago two years ago. With his spot in the playoffs secured, it’s possible that he is more comfortable racing for stage points. But at the same time, Trackhouse Racing does prioritize wins since they don’t go to victory lane as often as Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs, Racing, or Team Penske. I do imagine they’ll want to pad SVG’s playoff position with another win, but all in all he’s likely optimal with a 60+ point performance.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $12,500

Gibbs does have some upside especially with how well he’s performed here in the two previous iterations of this race. In 2023 he started P12 and finished 9th. Then last year he started P2 and finished 3rd after he led 17 laps.

Gibbs did post the fourth-fastest lap in practice on Saturday and he was second-fastest in five-lap average. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise considering he is in one of the better cars in the field and almost all of Team Penske looks like they whiffed on the setup.

We did just witness Gibbs lead 27 laps while collecting 18 fastest laps at Mexico City just a few weeks ago. Gibbs starts P9 so there’s some PD on the table as well but there’s a strong chance he can lead some laps and collect another top three finish.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

Personally, I’m not so sure how much exposure I’ll get to Allmendinger come Sunday afternoon. The speed in practice was middle-of-the-pack and he hasn’t performed well in the two previous races at Chicago, although he did wreck in last year’s race.

Kaulig Racing has taken a step back in terms of how competitive their equipment is. But Allmendinger is also a reasonable price for a driver starting P16. And he’s a road ringer after all. If he manages to finish top five he’s looking at 50+ fantasy points for Sunday’s race.

He may be a driver I match the field in terms of ownership but he’s a driver that has grabbed a few top eight results on ovals this year and eventually he has to come through on a road course, which is his specialty.

Hendrick Motorsports

There are grounds to play all four Hendrick drivers. William Byron (P38) and Chase Elliott (P39) are the obvious plays because of where they’re being scored from. Byron has NextGen wins at COTA and Watkins Glen and it’s well documented how good Chase Elliott is on road courses, and he’s coming off a win last week at Atlanta. Both are cash game locks and very playable in GPP contests simply because of the floor they offer by starting deep in the field.

I do want to spend more time on Alex Bowman (P11) and Kyle Larson (P14). Bowman won this race a year ago and Larson is playable almost anywhere and he’s won on road courses as well. However, both line up as GPP options for this slate because all of Hendrick Motorsports drivers will be dropping to the rear for this race. That doesn’t really impact Byron and Elliott. But Bowman and Larson come in with a little bit of leverage. This is a race without many dominator points and at Larson’s price tag, that may push some people away.

At the end of the day, it’s a long race and these four drivers will probably flip the stage and get on a unique strategy to gain track position. But for this race specifically, we do have some very popular options that the field will gravitate to. I at least like that there are two great drivers that may come in with some low ownership.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

Buescher had the eighth-best lap in practice, had the eighth-best five-lap average and he qualified P8. That’s called consistency, folks.

Buescher is a very strong road course driver. He went toe-to-toe with SVG last year at Watkins Glen and got the win. He’s also finished top four in the last three races at Sonoma which is where NASCAR is heading next weekend. But the #FAmily is set to be early to the Buescher Bash for this weekend at Chicago.

As a mid-range play he has potential to collect some dominator points. If he can do that and score a top five finish then he’s likely returning 45+ points. The one concern I have is that there are obvious chalk options starting so far back that if they all hit and score well, then Buescher may have no shot at being optimal. Do not play him in cash games, stick to GPP’s with this recommendation because there is some win equity here.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,200

I don’t really know what the deal is with Ross. He does have a win this year so he’s locked into the playoffs, but at the same time, the results are all over the place at times. He does have a win at COTA on his resume, but we don’t quite hold him in high regard as a road course specialist.

He’s finished 22nd in each of the last two Chicago street races which is ironic because that’s where he’s starting for Sunday’s race. The practice speed may just indicate that he has a borderline top 15 car. However, Chastain does take risks and is an aggressive driver. For a driver priced in this range I’m happy to get some exposure as he is good enough to grab a top 10 finish. If he can somehow finish in the top eight then he’s flirting with 50+ points on DraftKings.

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

This recommendation could certainly bite me in the ass. Team Penske (and Josh Berry) did not look great in practice. But some adjustments were made so Blaney and Logano did okay with their qualifying efforts. But Cindric did not and he starts P27.

Cindric does have a road racing background and the track history in two races here is solid. Last year he started P21 and finished 15th. The year prior, in a race that saw several weather issues, Cindric started P31 and finished 6th.

I don’t believe he has the greatest ceiling, but if he finishes 15th we’re looking at 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings from a driver in the $7K range. That’s perfectly fine and likely optimal if there’s chaos that blows up some chalk. But I want to get some exposure based on the background he has as a strong road course driver.

Will Brown – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $7,500

I gave a lot of consideration to Daniel Suarez who is a bit more expensive, starts in the same range, and he has something to prove after it was announced that he wouldn’t be returning to Trackhouse Racing next year. And we just saw him win the Xfinity Series race in Mexico City a few weeks ago and he has a win at Sonoma on his resume as well. So there’s potential there.

Will Brown comes in as most teams try to get creative and bring in road course specialists to potentially get them a win and some points in the owner standings. Brown is a current Supercars driver having won the series championship in 2024. 

Kaulig Racing is hoping to strike gold similar to how Trackhouse brought in SVG for this race in 2023, and he went on to win. Brown has a good background that fits this track but Kaulig’s equipment does pale in comparison to Trackhouse these days. Regardless, there’s a chance he comes in at ownership under 20% for tournaments and at the absolute worst, the paint scheme looks pretty sleek.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,500

Road courses are definitely not Denny Hamlin’s strength and he’ll be the first to admit this. For example, he did finish 2nd at Watkins Glen in 2023. But he also finished 23rd there in 2024 and 20th in 2022. In the last four COTA races he’s finished between 14th and 21st.

It’s not that he’s bad on road courses. But he’s performed poorly in the NextGen car so that’s possibly his dilemma. The good news for Hamlin is that he starts P40. That is easily the best floor in the entire field because he cannot get you negative points.

Even if Hamlin finishes 25th he’s still scoring 32 fantasy points on DraftKings. If he can finish top 20 then it’s 43+ fantasy points. Now we know Hamlin has no win equity, but he’s shown he can at least finish in the top half of the field on road courses in the NextGen car. For that reason, we can pony up and roster him even if there’s no ownership discount.

Now I’m not going to write up Bubba Wallace in depth because this is a road course Playbook and I don’t want to highlight too many drivers that have gone on the record saying they dislike this type of racing. But Wallace does offer position differential starting P37 and he finished 13th in this race a year ago.

Justin Haley – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

I’m on the fence about rostering Justin Haley. The track history across the very small sample size is inspiring. Haley was the runner-up here in 2023 with Kaulig Racing and then he finished 16th last year with Rick Ware Racing. His first season with Spire Motorsports has been uninspiring. And that also includes his practice effort on Saturday.

Haley’s car completely missed the mark. His single-lap speed ranked 37th in the field and he didn’t register a five-lap run. His teammates were much better. In fact, Michael McDowell was the best in five-lap and 10-lap averages. So I don’t fully understand how Haley’s car is so bad.

Haley did finish 16th at COTA earlier this year but he also had Rodney Childers as his crew chief for that race. Again, this is a tough play to read and I may not know where I stand on Haley until a couple hours before the race. For now, I’m fine including him for this Playbook because of the starting spot.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

The value tier certainly has some interesting options like Todd Gilliland and John Hunter Nemechek. But I’m going to feature Zane Smith. Zane’s practice speeds were pretty solid as he was 16th in single-lap speed and then 12th in five-lap average.

Zane also has a pretty solid road course background. During his time in the Truck Series, he had two wins at COTA, a runner-up finish at Sonoma, and a pair of runner-up finishes at Mid-Ohio. I contend he could’ve won one of those Mid-Ohio races, but he didn’t want to race Parker Kligerman too hard after Kligerman helped push him to a win at Daytona earlier that year.

Last year was his first full-time season at the Cup Series level. With Spire Motorsports he grabbed top 20 finishes at COTA, Sonoma, Chicago, Watkins Glen, and the Roval. So far this year with Front Row Motosports, the results haven’t been as fruitful but I do like the speed he showcased on Saturday and the starting spot puts him in play for our NASCAR DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Austin Hill – DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $2,500

I don’t necessarily believe Hill needs to be played on FanDuel, but I think he’s in play as a punt on DraftKings. I noted in Discord for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race that he’s a rather underrated road course driver. At Chicago in the Xfinity Series Hill has finished 5th and 7th, and then on Saturday he finished 4th. He also finished 3rd at Mexico City a few weeks ago. So as much as we love to play this kid at superspeedways, he does have potential on road courses as well.

Hill starts P30 for this race and it should be noted he’s likely going to be passed immediately early on. So we have to play the long game with Hill. Hill was top 15 in five-lap average during Saturday’s Cup Series practice, but I have serious concerns about the RCR cars. They’ve had virtually no speed this year and they’re rather uncompetitive.

But Hill does have the luxury of additional track time and he’s very affordable for this race. And despite the PD he may not carry significant ownership. I wouldn’t play him in cash games but I love the potential for GPP’s.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Projections: Grant Park 165

As of Sunday morning there are some issues getting the Projections to properly export and with Matt Selz on vacation I don't want to be bugging him trying to find a solution. So since the Projections typically go behind a Paywall I'm just going to add them here in the Playbook. The columns on the far right obviously represent the DraftKings and FanDuel projections separately.

 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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