It’s another race on the Amazon Prime swing of the 2025 NASCAR schedule and we head to the Midwest for some high-speed action at Michigan International Speedway!

It’s actually been a big week in terms of NASCAR news. Ryan Blaney broke the seal and got the win last week at Nashville. But more importantly, the federal appeals court overturned the preliminary injunction that allowed 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports to race as chartered teams. If you need one of those “explain this to me like I’m five years old” sorts of things, basically in a few weeks those two teams will have to race as “open” cars which means they have to qualify their way into the race. And they also receive less funding for equipment from NASCAR. I don’t think it’s as hurtful for 23XI Racing because they’re owned by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan and they have plenty of sponsors supporting them. I am curious to see how this impacts FRM in the long run.

But enough with the boring legal news that doesn’t pertain to this race. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies for the FireKeepers Casino 400 from Michigan International Speedway!

 

 

 

Michigan International Speedway Trends

Michigan International Speedway is a LARGE two-mile oval. It’s not quite a perfect oval as there is a bit of a ‘D’ look to it on the front stretch while the back stretch is very straight. But they run the intermediate aero package so its the same as tracks like Vegas, Charlotte, Texas, Kansas, Homestead, Darlington, and others. But this track is larger. In practice and qualifying (table below) we saw the field ripping around the track well over 190mph.

This is a very interesting race because of the size of the track. It’s a 400-mile race over 200 laps. There are fewer dominator points available, but we aren’t throwing them out the window like we will next week. As you can see from the trends table above, this is one of the rare times where we may see dominators emerge from outside the top 10. Over the last five races, 41.16% of the laps led came from drivers starting outside the top 10. Over the last three NextGen races here, that number increases slightly to 43.40% but we’re also seeing about nine drivers (on average) gain double-digit spots in terms of position differential.

The NextGen era has yet to deliver a driver that has led over 100 laps. And in the last three races only one driver has led over 50 laps. So dominator points could be evenly spaced out for this race so while I’m still taking a two-dominator approach for this race, I want to at least consider the possibility a one-dominator approach, with a driver starting in the first three rows, while I aim for PD and secondary/tertiary dominators starting outside the top 10 that can finish well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

As we can see the front row has done pretty well for themselves over the last five races at Michigan. But they’re not really the best in terms of dominator potential. We’re seeing P9, P13, P18, P20, and even P25 outscore (on average) the drivers starting on the front row.

Given how qualifying shook out for this race, there’s a chance PD options outperform the two drivers on the front row for this race (Chase Briscoe and Kyle Busch).

I do want two dominators but given what we’ve seen the last few years, we don’t necessarily need two drivers starting in the top 10. You can possibly go with one and aim for PD. In doing so, you are kind of hoping a PD option in the P12-P25 range can also lead laps to help your lineup. It’s a bit risky but pit strategy and caution timing will play a role into who randomly can cycle to the front.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: FireKeepers Casino 400

Another brutal week for practice notes. There were quite a few drivers in practice that struggled with managing their tires. In doing so they ended up with a tire going down and this happened enough in Group B to impact that group’s ability to get a long run in.

So we take the table above with a slight grain of salt. I have constructed some of my builds more around “lineup theory” and how previous races have played out, rather than acknowledging the practice speeds. Sure, I’m leaning heavily on position differential options but I’m also trying to take some risks on cheaper drivers who qualified better than a lot of the chalk. I’ll detail a couple of those drivers below.

 

FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

This is more of a gut call because we didn’t get the best look at his car in practice. But he’s still Kyle Larson at the end of the day. The front row is comprised of two drivers who are good, but Hamlin, Byron, and Larson start right behind them and can drive to the front early on.

There certainly was a time when this was one of Larson’s best tracks. He won three consecutive races at Michigan from 2016 through 2017. The NextGen era hasn’t been as fruitful but he led over 40 laps here last year before getting caught up in a wreck.

He already has three wins in 2025 and he’ll always be a trendy and popular play. With Denny Hamlin on baby watch, if there’s any word about Hamlin not racing, that elevates Larson even more.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

As crazy as it sounds, we are once again under Denny Hamlin Baby watch. His fiancée did not go into labor last Sunday and she didn’t go into labor throughout this week. Denny will surely welcome the new baby given the blow 23XI Racing was dealt last week regarding their status as a chartered team.

But I’m operating now as if Hamlin’s once again a full go for this race. He qualified P3 and we did see in Saturday’s Truck Series race that it’s pretty easy to pass for the lead at this track. Hamlin finished 3rd at Michigan in 2022 and 2023. Last year he won the pole, didn’t lead a lap, and finished 9th. All in all, the track history is still pretty solid.

Hamlin’s led 132 laps combined in the last two races (Charlotte and Nashville) so he’s trending well heading into this race. I have all the faith in the world he can get past Briscoe/Busch who start in front of him. The challenge could be holding off the Hendrick cars starting around him.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,500

This is usually the part of the article where I’ll say something like “if I’m paying up, I’d prefer to target dominator points,” and while that’s still true we’ve seen plenty of drivers move up and lead later on at Michigan. Over 40% of the laps led at Michigan have come from drivers starting outside the top 10 in the NextGen car.

Bell was part of the disjointed Group B practice session that saw multiple drivers cutting tires. We saw that Bell had the best five-lap average but because of the frequent cautions, he didn’t get a longer run in the car. To make it worse, he qualified outside the top 20. So we do get a nice blend of PD, potential dominator upside, and win equity. Is he going to be leverage? No, but he’s potentially in a fast car that might be mandatory for the optimal lineup.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

I’m ready for disappointment from Reddick once again. Heading into last year’s race at Michigan, the track history was pretty poor, but he won in 2024 with 15 laps led.

Reddick has been flashing more speed of late. In three of the last four points-paying races he’s registered 20+ fastest laps. Since Vegas, he has five races with 20+ fastest laps but it may be hard to reach that number for Sunday’s race since there are only 200 laps.

Reddick has yet to win this year. In fact, I’m still worried he could be a dud for Sunday’s race when it’s all said and done. While capable of getting fastest laps, he hasn’t registered a top five finish since Darlington two months ago. But the car and equipment are great and he broke through last year with a big win so it’s possible he finds some magic on Sunday.

Update: Tyler Reddick is going to start at the rear for this race for an unapproved adjustment to the splitter. He'll start at the back and be scored from P12. It's obviously a downgrade to his fantasy value but he has plenty of laps to work with to move up and could easily be back in the top 20 halfway through the first stage. I understand wanting to adjust exposure slightly, and to each their own. But I'm letting the play ride for the lineups I had him in if others are pivoting away.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $9,500

For the third straight week, and the fourth time this season, Chase Briscoe has won the pole. Not quite sure how but hey, these are the cards we’ve been dealt. The run is certainly impressive and I cannot take anything away from the qualifying effort the last three races.

But being on the pole at Michigan doesn’t translate to a guaranteed appearance in the optimal lineup. In the last two Cup Series race at Michigan, the polesitter has led one total lap. If we go back to the first NextGen race at this track in 2022, Bubba Wallace was able to lead 22 laps.

Overall, there is still a shot that he can get out to an early lead so there’s clearly some appeal especially after he rallied and finished third at Charlotte while not necessarily leading a ton of laps. But even last week he led over 50 at Nashville but had a poor finish. He’s a decent play for tournaments but I might lay off the polesitter for cash games.

I’ll also mention that in the last two races at Michigan, Martin Truex Jr. led 75 total laps so maybe the 19-team is just nailing the setup once again.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,200

I’m addicted to RFK Racing in this article. Buescher is a previous winner at Michigan in 2023 where he led 52 laps in easily the best season of his career. He followed that up last year finishing 6th after starting P18.

Buescher backed up the practice speed with a qualifying effort putting him in the third row for this race. That may suppress ownership a bit but there’s sneaky potential for some dominator points although the results have regressed a bit this season.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

I’m not overly confident in this play because it feels a bit trappy. Bowman qualified P16 but the practice speeds were awesome. As you can see from the practice-to-qualifying table above, we have a $7,600 driver that flashed top five speed in practice. That should certainly get our attention.

Bowman’s track history is a bit all over the place. He finished 27th last year which isn’t great, but the year prior he led 19 laps but couldn’t finish the race with a steering issue. In 2022 he started P30 and finished 9th. 

The good news is there may be some leverage here simply because there are cheaper drivers offering more position differential. But I do have concerns that we get the fraud alert with Bowman’s speed with this race goes green on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,000

It was another poor qualifying effort for Keselowski on Saturday. He grabbed a top five result at Charlotte two weeks ago and then disappointed last week. Overall, Nashville was a bummer for DFS. But I digress…

While we harp on the bad luck and the poor performances, Michigan hits differently for Keselowski. He’s a Michigan native but he’s never won at this track. It’s a narrative we hear every year so there’s added pressure on Kez, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar for this race.

With that said, Keselowski has back-to-back top five finishes at this track and he’s discounted once again after being $8,300 on DraftKings a week ago. I understand that he’s frustrating and we’re probably tired of playing him, but I always wipe the slate clean because at this price tag, he can exceed 6X value with a top 12 finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,000

I really like this price tag on FanDuel which is a site that rewards more for PD and finishing position than dominator points. A lot of guys referenced in this article have great track history here. Preece isn’t among them but at the same time he did start P26 and finish 11th in last year’s race.

Plus, he’s in a Ford and given the influence of that manufacturer in the state of Michigan, this one means a bit more to those drivers.

Preece wasn’t electric in practice but the practice speed at least indicates the car is better than where he qualified. We’re also getting exposure to a driver that just finished top 10 at Charlotte and Kansas while logging a handful of other top 10 finishes this season as well.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,000

I gave some thought to going with Erik Jones in this portion of the value plays. Ultimately, I’m going with Gibbs. You’ll find plenty of cash games options in this section of the article. I think it’s worth mentioning a GPP play.

Gibbs is going through it and there are all the discussions on social media about how the kid sucks. I still think there’s plenty of talent but yeah, he’s struggled at the Cup level as he has over 100 career starts and no wins.

But this is a Joe Gibbs Racing car at a nice price tag on DraftKings. Among drivers who have run all three NextGen races at Michigan, Gibbs is tied with Brad Keselowski for the third-best average finish (8.0). He even managed to finish third here in last year’s race. The starting spot (P8) is going to largely keep people off this play.

So you don’t need him in single-entry contests or even three-entry formats. This is a large-field GPP play that might have a chance to lead laps given the long run speed he showcased in practice. But with that said, it’s worth mentioning that a significant portion of the field didn’t get to see a 15-lap run in practice.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $6,200

With Mexico City looming on the schedule next week, I do wonder where Suarez’s head is at for this race. He qualified poorly (P35) so that instantly puts him in play for cash games because as we mentioned above, we like the “comers and goers” narrative at Michigan.

Track history is also on his side. The last two years he’s finished eighth or better in both races and in the three NextGen races he’s led a combined 52 laps here. That may not sound like much for three races but that’s about 8.6% of the total laps at Michigan over the last three years.

The equipment is certainly good enough to move up even if he finishes off the lead lap. He’s returning roughly 40 points on DraftKings if he can finish 19th. Even if he finishes 22nd he’s perfectly fine in cash games as that would be flirting with 5X value at such an affordable price.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $4,200

Given the size of this track and the speeds we will see on Sunday, I do upgrade Stenhouse slightly on these bigger tracks. Believe it or not, last week at Nashville, that was the first time all year he failed to finish a race. And you can largely blame Carson Hocevar for that DNF. For a guy who carries the stigma of wrecking more than most, Stenhouse has done well this year.

So far this year he grabbed top 20 finishes at Vegas and Kansas. More recently he finished 11th at Charlotte and prior to that he actually finished 6th at Texas.

The practice speeds were decent, but nothing spectacular. He has a good enough floor for a top 20 finish. He may need a little chaos to land in the optimal lineup, but we also haven’t seen him qualify this poorly of late and we are looking for drivers that can move up.

Noah Gragson – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $5,200

There are some good PD options in the value range and if you take the approach of playing one driver starting in the top 10 while aiming for the big PD movers, then there are plenty of options available for you.

Gragson starts P29 for Sunday’s race. Last year with Stewart-Haas Racing, he started P25 and finished 12th. The practice speeds also looked pretty solid as well. He may not have a top 15 car but he’s definitely live to finish in the top 20 just based on speed. Anything better than that would likely require some chaos.

He wrecked out of last week’s race and is looking for a bounce back opportunity. I do think there’s a chance of an optimal lineup performance after he finished 14th at Kansas and 10th at Charlotte over the past month.

 

 

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