The NASCAR Cup Series kicked off the Amazon Prime portion of the TV schedule in style and truthfully, it was everything a NASCAR broadcast should be. I do understand some folks don’t want to pay more to watch races, and to each their own. But the coverage last week was outstanding. The race just felt like it meant more between the in-depth pre-and-post-race coverage. There were minimal commercials and the broadcast team did a great job making it seem like every position battle mattered and carried importance.

Ross Chastain came away as the winner after William Byron fell short of the win. It’s the second time this year he’s led over 200 laps in a race and failed to win. But we do keep the momentum going this weekend as we head to Nashville Superspeedway for some Music City racing at night! Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup strategies for the Cracker Barrel 400!

 

 

 

Nashville Superspeedway Trends

Nashville Superspeedway is a bit of an odd duck. From above, there’s nothing too different about it. It’s not all that much shorter from the cookie cutter 1.5-mile tracks. It does measure in at 1.33 miles as a tri-oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns while the front stretch is at 9 degrees and the backstretch is at six. To be fair, it is a rather flat intermediate track.

Moreover, the track is completely concrete. So while we don’t have many comparable tracks for Nashville, we can at least consider Dover International Speedway. Dover is a one-mile track that is also a concrete surface, but more of a perfect oval.

This week’s Playbook may look somewhat different and lacking certain tables that we see in previous versions. My issue with Nashville is the sample size. Sure, this marks the fifth year that we’re seeing NASCAR head to the Music City. But the first race was during the final season of the Gen6 car. Kyle Larson spanked the field with 264 laps led, 133 fastest laps, and a near perfect driver rating (149.7).

Then in 2022, we had the introduction to the NextGen car and we all remember how that season played out. Several teams struggled with this car and properly nailing the setup. Chase Elliott got the win that year while four different drivers led 40+ laps and the same drivers logged a majority of the fastest laps.

2023 was a very weird year. In three of the four races at Nashville we’ve seen double-digit cautions. The 2023 race at Nashville saw just four total cautions and we know two of those were for stage breaks. That was the year Ross Chastain got the win on some long green flag runs. Chastain, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin finished in the top three while all leading 50+ laps.

Last year’s race saw a return of cautions, but for all the wrong reasons. Joey Logano went to victory lane after claiming the win following a record five overtimes and 331 total laps. Logano led a total of nine laps that race after starting P26. Even Zane Smith managed to finish as the runner-up. That’s how wild the end of that race became.

Now what can we put confidence in? We know clean air matters here, like most tracks. Starting on the pole certainly has its perks as well. In the three NextGen races at Nashville, the polesitters have led a combined 283 laps. Each of the three NextGen races at Nashville have seen at least two drivers lead 50+ laps and there have been at least five drivers gain double-digit spots in position differential. There were nine in last year’s race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Cracker Barrel 400

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

We’ll kick it off with Byron over Kyle Larson simply because Byron’s offering the better starting position, thus he’s in line for more dominator points. Plus Larson’s car wasn’t anything special in practice.

Byron was at least among the fastest in practice and as we saw on Saturday, the faster cars in practice carried that into qualifying as well. Track history isn’t necessarily on his side but again, it’s a rather small sample size for the entire field and there have been some outlier races.

Byron only has one win on the season, but he’s also led 200+ laps on two occasions (most recently last week) and finished as the runner-up. It’s a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ he’ll get his second win of the season. But the dominator potential is certainly there even if he doesn’t win.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

We can go to Denny Hamlin for a couple reasons, but we need to monitor any breaking news leading into the race. In two of the last three Nashville races, Hamlin has started on the pole. And in all three of those races he’s led at least 70 laps. He’s never won here but in that span he’s finished 12th, 3rd, and 6th.

We can also take comfort in the fact that Hamlin won last year’s race at Dover, the other fully concrete track on the NASCAR schedule. He led 136 laps in that effort and in three NextGen races at the Monster Mile, Hamlin has led a total of 207 laps.

Bristol Motor Speedway is another concrete track but I don’t want to apply it too much for this week’s race considering it’s only a half-mile track. But again, Hamlin’s had plenty of success there as well including finishing as the runner-up this past April.

The downside with Hamlin as of right now is that he’s riding a four-race streak of finishing outside the top 15. But there’s clear dominator potential here and he has a chance to hoist his first guitar as the winner of this race. To go with that, he’s also on baby watch and the baby is apparently due this weekend. If he doesn’t start the race then he won’t accumulate points. If he pulls out then that puts Kyle Larson in play a little more. Larson offers a ton of PD as an expensive option but in a race like this I’d rather pay up for dominator points and his car was a bit off in practice.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

A small part of me feels like Bell could go overlooked. And if I’m wrong, so be it. But I think he’s my favorite play on the board because drivers like Byron, Briscoe, Hamlin (if he races), Reddick, and Chastain start ahead of him.

Bell’s fallen off the map after his run of three consecutive wins earlier this year. But I think he has “break the slate” potential for Nashville. He got into a wreck last year (like many others did) but led 131 laps. Additionally, he’s had some great performances at Dover and Bristol as well as other intermediates.

Bell’s short run speeds were okay in practice but he was also in the group that wasn’t able to get a 20-lap run or longer so that might lower ownership just a little bit. If Hamlin can’t run this race, then Bell’s ownership will see a positive spike and I don’t think I’d be a fan of that scenario.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

Welcome to Tyler Reddick “trap” week once again. There are certainly plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Reddick for Sunday night’s race but a part of me feels like this is one of those races where he looked outstanding in practice on Saturday and then the next day, he’s lacking that juice to get to victory lane.

He was obviously great in several of the shorter metrics but we didn’t get to see the car in the longer run so we are putting some blind faith into him and hoping he can maintain the long run. The track history is okay. He finished third here last year and was regularly running in the top five and he’s led 15+ laps in each of the last two Nashville races. I just can’t seem to shake the feeling that he has serious bust potential.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $9,500

I feel better about Briscoe from the perspective that if Hamlin cannot give it a go for this race, then Briscoe has one less elite driver to worry about potentially passing him early on. Briscoe was among the faster cars in practice and he landed the pole for the second straight week.

Briscoe is showing more and more progress and consistency as the season has progressed. He finished fourth at Kansas prior to the All-Star race and then last week he finished third. His DFS score would’ve been better if he could’ve held the lead to start the Coca-Cola 600.

But he has another shot this week to lead laps early on and maybe he can string together his first true dominant run with JGR after having a great practice session on Saturday.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

The mid-range is tricky this week as we don’t have a ton of position differential plays in the $8K or $9K range on DraftKings. The good news is that if we’re targeting two expensive drivers as our dominators then we’re likely skipping over a handful of others, which leads us to the $7K options and the value tier.

Bowman wasn’t anything special in practice. In fact, he qualified right about where the practice speeds fell. But by the time they go green for this race, he’s talented enough to move up throughout the night. Moreover, this equipment is still among the best in the field. But Hendrick might be experimenting with setups. Chase Elliott and William Byron were great in practice while Bowman and Kyle Larson were forgettable.

Bowman’s track history is rather unimpressive as well. In four races here, he’s never finished in the top 10. I can understand playing him in cash games but really try to diversify your exposure among the drivers offering PD that also open up salary. Bowman always has a chance to grab a top 10 but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means.

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,500

I do love when DraftKings and FanDuel come together to match pricing on a driver. And I can’t believe it, but I’m falling for the Hocevar trap all over again. He qualified just outside the top 25 but practice speeds indicate he’s faster than where he qualifed and that he could have a top 12 car.

Hocevar has been fast for most of the season. But he just cannot finish well. He has just one top 10 finish and that came when he was the runner-up at Atlanta. His next best finish was when he was 11th at Bristol, which just so happens to be another concrete track, albeit much shorter.

But Hocevar did finish 16th in this race last year. It does seem like it’s a lot to ask of him to just finish a damn race. Even after last week’s disappointing result I’m still willing to throw him into some lineups because he’s an aggressive driver that can once again finish top 15 at Nashville.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

Gibbs is starting to feel the heat. He’s now 100+ starts into his Cup Series career and he doesn’t have a single win to show for it. But I actually don’t think his ride is in jeopardy by any means. If they send him down to the Xfinity Series, who are they replacing him with? Taylor Gray? William Sawalich? Maybe Corey Heim would get a shot? Or you possibly talk Aric Almirola out of the forced retirement he seemingly took on? We all know Smithfield bacon is a longtime sponsor of his and would like pretty good on a JGR car.

So while Gibbs has disappointed it doesn’t seem like his grandfather will demote him. He hasn’t finished in the top 10 since Bristol but that was an impressive top three effort. And while he didn’t finish well last week at Charlotte, he did register 20 fastest laps.

He might have a top 15 effort in him tonight and because of the car he’s in, he’ll likely to carry ownership as he starts P22 and is at least good enough to finish in the top 12 as another race goes by that he likely doesn’t win.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $7,000

We nailed Preece last week as a value play starting deep in the field and sure enough he gained 19 spots to finish in the top 10. We celebrate by going right back to the well for him for Sunday night.

Preece really likes this track. He didn’t finish the inaugural Nashville race for the NASCAR Cup Series back in 2021 but with Stewart-Haas Racing, he started P25 in 2023 and finished 16th. Then last year he started P22 and finished fourth. We also have the luxury of this being a night race so the conditions will be cooler which should help the Fords once again.

Preece is also a two-time winner at Nashville in the Craftsman Truck Series. He claimed those victories back in 2021 and 2022 so maybe there’s just something about this track that he really likes. For Sunday’s race he did qualify right about where the practice speeds were but as the night cools off I think we may see him move up and contend for a top 10.

Corey Heim – DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $4,800

It’s surprising to see Heim priced above a handful of more experienced drivers but perhaps DraftKings is leaning into the equipment as Heim will be in an additional 23XI car for Sunday’s race.

There’s minimal win equity here but I haven’t acknowledged too many PD options in the value tier and Heim fits that bill. I’m largely encouraged by the fact he finished 13th at Kansas three weeks ago.

But he’s also among the elite drivers in the Craftsman Truck Series and he looked great in Friday’s race despite not getting the win. With that said, he starts P30 for this race and can score pretty well if he can simply crack the top 20. Practice speeds indicate he might just have a top 25 car so it’s likely he needs some variance to fall his way.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $5,800

I truly struggle with what to do with Allmendinger most weeks. He was in my driver pool prior to qualifying last week. He was fast in practice, but he went out and qualified P5. He finished fourth and turned out to be a good play and he consistently ran well all night.

But that’s always the problem with Allmendinger. He never really offers position differential. He’s started outside the top 20 just three times this year. At Martinsville he started P23 and finished in the same spot. At Darlington he started P22 and finished 18th. At Kansas he started P33 and his engine blew up and he finished 38th. Most weeks he’s not offering a ton of PD and he becomes difficult to play.

I do want exposure because he’s having a great year with top 10’s at tracks like Vegas, Homestead, Bristol, and Charlotte. These are tracks that are lower in variance which tells me that this veteran is getting the most out of his equipment.

Two years ago at Nashville he started P19 and finished 10th. Last year he started P28 and finished 11th. His worst race here was in 2022 where he started P14 and finished 19th. We’ve also seen him do very well here in the Xfinity Series having won here in 2023. We also saw him finished 13th last year at Dover. We need to be taking some chances with our GPP builds so I want to keep him in my player pool this week.

The great news for this race is that he qualified a bit worse than normal but it came at the expense of practice time. Dinger’s car had to go through inspection multiple times and he was penalized by being held for 10 minutes before they could get the car on the track. Apparently they made an adjustment to the car between inspections and the specific adjustment they made was a no-no according to NASCAR. So it’s a bit of a mystery for this race but I like the value for an experienced driver that can move up.

Update: Apologies for this oversight but I knew he'd have to start at the rear but wasn't aware he had a pass through penalty as well. I'm fine keeping him in the player pool because those penalties will certainly lower his ownership and I think he can either maintain or get back on the lead lap. But we have to downgrade him given the issues he had Saturday.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

There’s hardly any win equity in this value tier but Jones is similar to Ryan Preece in that this appears to be a preferred track of his. And maybe he’s a sneaky option to keep an eye on for the concrete tracks.

In 2022 at Nashville, Jones started P23 and finished 11th. The following year he started P23 once again but finished 8th. And that was the race with just two cautions for wrecks. So we were getting longer, green flag runs as well. Now last year’s race was concerning because truthfully, he hated the car. Sure, there were plenty of cautions in overtime, but Jones wrecked around lap 287.

But I’m thinking he may have some magic on the concrete tracks. Jones has never finished worse than 22nd in 11 Cup Series races at Dover. The last two years he’s finished 16th and 10th. That’s not bad for a driver that’s typically qualifying poorly.

Would a little more PD be nice? Sure, but he did show that this might be a top 15 car in practice so if we can squeeze out some positive position differential, he has a shot at being optimal with a top 10 finish. This is not a cash game recommendation.

 

 

Player Pool

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