NASCAR DFS Picks: Coke Zero Sugar 400 Playbook, 8/24 - Daytona Speedway

Daytona! That word is a loaded one when it comes to NASCAR racing. Not only is it perhaps the most famous NASCAR track on the schedule but it’s also home to some of the more chaotic races all season. We should expect that again on Saturday night for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. What was previously the last race of the regular season is now the penultimate regular season race but it should still be chaotic. Don’t worry though, we’ll talk you through the strategy, scoring trends, race trends, and top driver picks for NASCAR DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Coke 400!

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Trends

The race trends this week are only taking into account the last 5 Coke 400s and no Daytona 500s. Why? The extra 40 laps in the Daytona 500 create totally different ends to races that don’t hold water for this week.

Some of the trends this week we expect to see, such as nearly 7-in-10 drivers finishing in the top-10 starting outside the top-12. Also a large number of double-digit PD plays a race is expected to go with less than half the field finishing on the lead laps. However, what’s not expected is more than half the laps being led by top-10 starting drivers in that span.

DraftKings Scoring History

The chart below shows the average points posted by starting position without factoring in driver, car, team, or manufacturer. It’s designed to show the strategy at play on DraftKings for this race specifically. In the same breath it’s not a hard-and-fast rule to base builds on.

In what is one of the clearer trends of the season, we can tell that the back half of the field tends to score better than the front half here. I think the reason is obvious, the carnage and chaos of the racing allows the drivers starting in the back to move up and finish well, thus scoring highly.

Fanduel Scoring History

The chart below shows the average points posted by starting position without factoring in driver, car, team, or manufacturer. It’s designed to show the strategy at play on Fanduel for this race specifically. In the same breath it’s not a hard-and-fast rule to base builds on.

While the general trend line of the chart is similar to that of the DraftKings one above, there are some interesting differences. Thanks to the laps completed points given by Fanduel, the front half of the field drivers are more playable. While they’re still below-average in scoring, they are far closer to the average mark than drivers in similar spots on DraftKings.

Daytona NASCAR DFS Strategy

A few things right off the top: firstly, this race is chaos, even if it seems clear cut for 2/3 of the race. Secondly, just about everyone is playable this week, I’m simply providing you the best plays based on drivers having a history of strong showings in this style of race. Thirdly, leaving a lot of salary on the table is generally the best way to do well. Anywhere from $2,500- $10,000 left could be viable winning lineups. That’s unlike most other races on the schedule.

Now that those are out of the way, how are we generally building lineups for the Coke Zero Sugar 400? When looking at the charts above, it’s easy to say “just stack the back” and while that’s fine for cash contests, which aren’t typically recommended this week, it won’t get you up the pay scale in tournaments. To really succeed in GPP builds, we’re looking for a driver starting in the top-10, and it could even be one of the drivers in the front row. After that we’re playing two drivers from the mid-pack and then rounding it out with the rest starting P25 or worse.

Laps led aren’t a huge factor in these races, though you can get drivers who lead enough to be differentiators in the final standings. Depending on who the winner is, we also may not need the race winner in the lineup, though it certainly helps. The other thing to take into account this week is stacking, both teams and manufacturers. In pack racing like this, manufacturers will tend to pit together and organize in the pack together. That means the closer to the front they get the higher scores we put up. The downside becomes if they get caught in a wreck together, it can tank a whole lineup. In this vein, we want to have a lot of different drivers in lineups and not play too much of the same core in an effort to avoid a wreck ruining too many of your builds.

Top Driver Plays

Bubba Wallace

Wallace is easily one of, if not, the best plate racers in the field at this point. Not only has he won a plate race recently, but in the last 10 Daytona 500s and 10 Coke Zero 400s Wallace is the only driver to rank top-10 in average finish. Sure, Toyotas aren’t typically known for strength at plate tracks, but Wallace has the bona fides to overcome that and be a threat every time he shows up to one of these races.

Chris Buescher

Buescher won this race last year and needs a win, but that’s not the only reason he’s in the playbook. His average finish of 13.9 in the last 8 Coke Zero 400s ranks third best in the field among drivers with multiple 400s run. Buescher’s 5 top-10s in that span are also best in the field. That’s a lot going for a guy who’s in this salary range. Starting P13 might scare some folks off a bit, but in the last 3 400s, he’s started P13 or better each time and nabbed a runner-up and a win.

Kyle Busch

Busch is in here mainly as the Dan Malin Special of the week. He flat out called Busch to win on the podcast so why shouldn’t I put him in the playbook? Busch and RCR have been faster since the Olympic break and Busch has finished P10 and P7 in the last 2 Coke 400s. He needs a win to make the playoffs at this point and this may just be his best chance to get said win. There’s also the leverage that still comes with playing Busch in DFS as most still haven’t picked up on the speed boost the last few weeks.

Alex Bowman

I’ve been a big Bowman fan this week. I wrote him up in the betting piece, talked about him on the podcast, and now he’s in the playbook. In the last 6 Daytona races, Bowman has 4 top-10s; that’s one of the best records in the field. While he’s been known for starting up front at the Daytona 500, he typically starts 19.4 in the 400, which is close to his P21 starting spot on Saturday. While salaries aren’t really prohibitive this week, the price tag on Bowman is too low for a guy who ranks second in the field in average finish over the last 7 Coke 400s.

Michael McDowell

The first of the Front Row duo in the playbook and the first car in the field for the race. Why is the pole-sitter in the playbook for Daytona though? Just give me a second to explain. A) McDowell is one of the most skilled plate racers in the field with a win at Daytona. B) The Front Row cars are fast this week and we’ve seen tandem cars control the field in these races before. C) At the Daytona 500, the fuel-mileage race it was, Logano on the pole led 45 laps and run P1 or P2 much of the race. There is major risk here that he wrecks out late and kills any positive points but there’s also a chance that a driver with a fast car, plate experience, and needing a win, has a good day.

Austin Dillon

Still trying to get over the Richmond fiasco, both in the garage and in the appeals process, Dillon is needing a win. The good news for him is two-fold, not only has the 3-car been consistently fast since the Olympic break but he’s also quite good at the plate tracks. Dillon won this race 2 years ago and has a Daytona 500 win to his credit as well. Another thing in his favor? His 5 top-10s in the last 10 races is tied for second in the field and they’ve come while starting on average 16.2 (he’s starting P16 Saturday).

Erik Jones

Jones has won this race before and is seemingly always capable of running up front and finishing top-12. He’ll be rolling off dead last in the field on Saturday which makes him a free square for DFS as a driver who can’t possibly cost you points. Jones will be a popular play because of that fact, as well as the strategy of stacking-the-back that occurs here. If he misses the chaos and nabs a top-20 he’s a major value play.

Noah Gragson

As mentioned on the podcast, he’s one of my favorite cheaper plays in the field. That was before qualifying where he ran P15. He’s finished P5 and P9 in the last two Cup races at Daytona and has a solid history in the Xfinity series here too. Gragson has been one of the more consistent SHR drivers this year across multiple tracks and that consistency should remain on Saturday night with some leverage too for DFS.

Todd Gilliland

The second of the Front Row duo in the playbook was a late add. I’ll be honest, he’s a big risk too. Starting P2 isn’t usually a good spot at Daytona. Over the last 5 Coke 400s, P2 starting spot has finished 15.6 on average and led 12 laps a race. Gilliland did lead a good chunk of the Daytona 500 earlier in the year and has experience leading the pack around the 2.5-mile track. If a fuel-mileage race breaks out, he could us the speed in the 38-car to run up front for a good part of the day, and perhaps equal the best finishes from P2 of P3 and P4 in the last 5 races.

John H. Nemechek

Nemechek has made 3 trips to Daytona in the Cup Series between the Coke 400 and Daytona 500 and hasn’t finished worse than P11. Hasn’t matter if he’s starting closer to the front or in the back part of the field either. We’ve not played a lot of Nemechek this year but this is one of the races to feel solid about him, well as solid as we can feel about a driver at a plate race.

Justin Haley

Haley has long been known as a good plate racer. He has multiple wins in this discipline across all three NASCAR series. Haley doesn’t have to win here to be playable, just survive and finish top-20 and we’re good especially starting P36. Expect him to be one of the more popular plays this week, even though rostership will be spread quite wide given the nature of the race. Those stacking the back will lock and load Haley and others just looking for quality options will plug in Haley too.

Parker Retzlaff

We avoid Retzlaff previously because his equipment isn’t exactly good. However, the equipment doesn’t matter at Daytona. All that matters is Retzlaff has a history of surviving and weaving through the chaos in previous plate races. He’s also starting near the back of the pack which offers the highest PD upside when the wrecks start happening.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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