NASCAR DFS Picks: Bass Pro Shops Night Race Playbook, 9/13 - Bristol Motor Speedway

Bristol Motor Speedway plays host to the latest playoff race, and this is a big one because it’s a cutoff race. After Saturday the playoff field will be cut down to 12. Denny Hamlin went to victory lane last week at Gateway and he joins his teammate, Chase Briscoe, in the Round of 12 with a win.

There isn’t too much drama regarding the standings. As it stands heading into Bristol, Josh Berry and Alex Bowman really need to win Saturday night to move on. Austin Dillon and Shane van Gisbergen are 11 and 15 points below the cut line respectively. They can still make it on points, but they’ll need to finish well and hope that Ross Chastain and/or Austin Cindric wreck out or finish poorly. Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race!

Bristol Motor Speedway

Bristol Motor Speedway is pure chaos. It’s a short track measuring a half-mile in length. However, it’s a concrete surface with high banking. So the speeds are much faster than a flatter track like Martinsville. We’ll see about three or four laps tick off every minute. This is a 500-lap race, but it’ll go by fast.

Bristol is one of the few concrete tracks on the schedule as well. Dover and Nashville are the others, but no track directly compares to Bristol’s composition. Dover might compare in shape but it is twice the size of Bristol Motor Speedway.

A big storyline is going to be the right-side tire combination they’ll be using Saturday night. The softer compound is meant to increase more wear and tear to produce better racing. The short track packages have struggled in the NextGen era and there have been complaints over the last two races about the quality of racing. Kyle Larson won the last two races with over 400 laps led. NASCAR wants Bristol to be more competitive with more leaders throughout the race and more tire strategy.

For an update on the playoff standings, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe are locked into the next round. Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, and Ryan Blaney are all at least 40 points above the cut line so their spots are fairly safe as well. William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell are all at least 30 points above the cut. They’re not as locked in but it’s very likely they make it. Chase Elliott and Joey Logano are probably safe as long as they don’t wreck or register a disastrous finish.

The drama, if there is any, mostly surrounds Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, and Shane van Gisbergen. We mentioned at the top that Alex Bowman and Josh Berry need to win the race to move on. Bowman is 35 points below the cut line while Berry is 45. SVG probably needs a lot of chaos in this race to move on, and he’ll need to avoid it. We can probably assume he won’t be moving on. Chastain is 19 points above the cut line so if he just runs a clean race he should be okay, but nothing is a guarantee. The battle mostly boils down to the Austin’s. Cindric has an 11-point advantage over Dillon. But we’ve seen that when Austin Dillon’s back is against the wall, he’ll get aggressive and do what he needs to in order to move on.

DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Alright it is time for a little context because these tables need some clarity! The last two races at Bristol have been pretty bad. Kyle Larson won both from P2 and P3 with 400+ laps led in each race. That’s why the P2 and P3 starting spots grade out so well. The polesitter score looks rather underwhelming simply because the driver starting P1 hasn’t always collected dominator points in addition to finishing poorly:

• Spring 2025: Alex Bowman finished 37^th (16.05 dominator points)
• Fall 2024: Alex Bowman finished 9^th (17.05 dominator points)
• Spring 2024: Ryan Blaney finished 16^th (9.8 dominator points)
• Fall 2023: Christopher Bell finished 3^rd (76.45 dominator points)
• Fall 2022: Aric Almirola finished 28^th (13.5 dominator points)

So aside from Christopher Bell two years ago, the polesitter hasn’t done great. 10-20 dominator points is good most weeks, but this race will have about 300 up for grabs.

How do things necessarily change with the new tire compound? Fresh tires will definitely matter. If NASCAR is aiming for a tire management race and they want more tire wear, then fastest laps (0.45 points per fastest lap) become more evenly distributed based on pit strategy. I would love to get back to the kind of Bristol racing where we see at least two drivers lead 100+ laps and maybe a few more lead over 40.

The other big takeaway with Bristol is that we will see drivers lapped quickly. If you start at the back of the field that’s a bit of a red flag for this track. Here’s how the finishing results shook out with lead lap drivers:

Like I said earlier, this track produces chaos. Multiple drivers will lose the lead lap and with little run off at this track, NASCAR is quick to throw the yellow flag for a caution because there is nowhere for drivers to really move their cars “off track.” So as always, we’ll do our best to avoid the typical Bristol shenanigans, but this is a very challenging track to hit the optimal lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

For all the talk surrounding the new tire combination heading into Friday’s practice session, there was little falloff. There may have been a fractional different between the field’s five-lap average and the 30-lap average. Some drivers ran long for 50+ laps and the data reported little fall off.

Now I will say that practice was run with sun constantly on the track. They practiced and qualified under conditions that will be significantly hotter compared to when the race will be run. It’s entirely possible we see more fall off when the track cools and the cars are racing under the lights compared to the middle of the day.

Furthermore, there are several drivers in the field who looked fast because they practiced in Group A. Those are mostly the non-playoff drivers like Justin Haley, Riley Herbst, and Noah Gragson just to name a few. I’m not saying they are bad plays by any means. But they benefitted from the earlier session while several playoff drivers like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell all practiced poorly. Keep in mind those are drivers who may have their cars set up for race trim for cooler conditions.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

I really hate including Larson and Hamlin in the Playbook so often but the track history is on their side. And it’s because of the track history in the last two races that Larson could actually be a good driver to be underexposed to. He’s accumulated 100+ dominator points in two straight races here. So a lot of casual players building lineups for this race will jump on that. So if you still want exposure, then go for it. Go for 20-25% exposure to at least get some Larson into your builds. But if he’s going to be around 30-40% owned we don’t need to match that.

Aside from the last two races, Larson has an additional win and three other runner-up finishes. So even if we extract that last two Bristol races from our sample size, he’s still very good at this track. Larson just hasn’t been as dominant this season since his win at Kansas four months ago. However, he did lead 52 laps last week at Gateway along with 50 fastest laps so I’m feeling more confident that he has the dominator upside we’re used to seeing.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Just because Hamlin won last week doesn’t take him out of the player pool. Yes, he’s locked into the next round of the playoffs, but we’ve seen drivers win multiple races in one round of the playoffs before, so I don’t see why we should write him off for Saturday night.

Hamlin has four career wins at Bristol including two wins in the NextGen era. Even in the last two races where Larson dominated, Hamlin finished 2^nd and 4^th with 67 total fastest laps. Bristol has always been a great track for Joe Gibbs Racing so I’m confident they brought some fast cars this weekend.

If we’re looking at the “comparable” concrete tracks on the schedule, Hamlin won at Dover with 67 laps led and he was 3^rd at Nashville with 79 laps led. It’s not exactly rocket science to kick off the Playbook with these two, but there’s win equity and dominator potential with both.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

Blaney starts on the front row next to A.J. Allmendinger. The general belief is that Blaney showcased the best speed overall among the practice sessions because there was almost no tire falloff. And Blaney, just based on comparing equipment, should be able to get around Allmendinger early on.

Blaney led 48 laps at Bristol earlier this year which is surprising since that was a race so heavily dominated by Larson. But Blaney grabbed a top five finish and he finished sixth in this race a year ago. This isn’t one of his better tracks on paper. But prior to the NextGen era, he had four performances at Bristol from 2018-2020 where he led 60+ laps.

He comes in with solid momentum as he’s finished eighth or better in seven of his last eight races. He’s a great candidate for early dominator points and based on the practice speeds on Friday, he’s got a little more win equity than he did prior to qualifying.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Briscoe is definitely a better play on FanDuel where dominator points mean less and position differential is bumped up. It’s not often we can say Briscoe’s a PD play because he’s won the pole six times this year. But alas, here we are.

And while I’d prefer to pay up for dominator points on DraftKings, I will at least say that Briscoe’s a worthwhile cash game play due to the poor qualifying effort. Briscoe finished fourth in his first Bristol race with Joe Gibb Racing this past spring and he finished eighth in this race a year ago with Stewart-Haas Racing.

The practice speeds looked fine, especially in the longer runs. It just looks like a bit of a slip up for the 19-car after his teammates all qualified inside the top 10.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

I initially had Joey Logano in this section, and he’s still an okay play. He’s cheaper than Elliott and he offers more PD. But there’s a vast different in their track history at Bristol. In the NextGen era, Elliott has an average finish of 6.8 across five races at Bristol. Logano on the other hand has an average finish of 27.0 across the same sample size.

Neither were overwhelmingly elite in practice but Elliott has a pair of runner-up finishes in the five NextGen races at this track so I’m inclined to give him the nod as far as the NASCAR DFS Playbook goes.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,200

Chastain isn’t spectacular at this track, but the results are still solid. In five NextGen races at Bristol his worst finish is 23^rd. In the other four races he’s finished 15^th or better, including three top 10 finishes.

He even managed to start P35 in the spring and worked his way through the field to finish 7^th. If there’s one thing capping his upside it’s the fact that he’s never led a lap here in 10 career Cup Series races. But the finishing results are great. And if there’s any consolation, we can lean into the narrative that he’s previously won at Nashville, which is one of the few concrete tracks on the schedule.

As we mentioned earlier, he cannot afford a bad result. He really just needs to lay low and grab another respectable result. If that’s the case, he’ll move on and we’ll reap the benefits of a decent DFS score from him.

Kyle Busch – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $6,800

Similar to Chase Briscoe, this is a play probably better suited for FanDuel where position differential and good finishes reign supreme. And when we compare pricing, Busch is a far better value on FanDuel.

But I am primarily a DraftKings player so I’m putting Busch in this mid-range section based on the DK price tag. If we’re looking at track history, this is one of Busch’s best tracks ever. He’s won here EIGHT times in his career but the last win came in the spring of 2019.

The results in the NextGen era are rather eye opening for a driver who has been so dominant here. His best finish since 2022 is 14^th which happened this past spring. And his practice speeds looked pretty horrendous if I’m being honest. If you want to fade this recommendation, I wouldn’t blame you. There are other drivers in this range who may have lower floors due to potential negative PD, but they also possess better finishing upside for tournaments. 

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $7,800

Buescher is a previous winner here but I won’t go out of my way to say he can do it again since that win came three years ago. However, he starts P21 for this race and started P20 when he won this race three years ago.

Obviously that was a different time in the NextGen era. That 2022 season was like the Wild West with the levels of variance that year. But even aside from the win he’s done well here. He was fourth here two years ago and finished seventh in the spring of 2024.

Now I’m pretty happy getting exposure to all three RFK Racing drivers for this race. That includes Brad Keselowski, who is a little more expensive than Buescher and he starts a few spots ahead. But Kez was much better in practice than Buescher.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Preece is an interesting driver because he has decent track history here and this softer tire compound does draw some interest with Preece. If you’ll recall earlier in the year at Phoenix, Preece was one of the few drivers who got off strategy early on and experimented with the softer tire compound. The gamble paid big dividends in DFS. Preece registered 42 fastest laps and the edge helped him move quickly through the field where he was able to lead 34 laps throughout the race. Eventually others caught on and made their own strategy on those tires. But Preece was $6,700 for that race and returned 68 points on DraftKings.

For Bristol specifically, we’re once again in a bit of unknown territory with this tire compound. But it wouldn’t surprise anybody if Preece gambled a little with his strategy. After all, RFK Racing has made it clear they still want to get some wins and teammate Chris Buescher pulled off a win here three years ago.

Preece grabbed a top 20 here in the spring after starting P29 but in the prior three races at Bristol he had an average finishing position of 11.0 with Stewart-Haas Racing. That’s not too bad for a driver whose price helps us pay up for two dominators.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $6,000

For a few drivers in this article, we touched on how they were better for FanDuel than DraftKings. Allmendinger is very much a better tournament-only play for DraftKings than FanDuel.

Allmendinger surprisingly won the pole for Saturday night’s race. The practice speed also looked pretty good as well considering he was in Group A. But that group didn’t have any playoff drivers in it.

So if you’re playing Allmendinger, the idea is that you want him to finish top 10 but get about 10% of the dominator points. For example, if he finished 10^th with about 25-30 dominator points then he’d return about 48-53 fantasy points on DraftKings. This is a bit of challenge because Ryan Blaney starts right next to him. That’s why Dinger is strictly a tournament option this week for large-field contests. I wouldn’t play him in single-entry or three-entry max contests.

Michael McDowell – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,800

McDowell is a bit of a tricky read. His track history at Bristol is really good for a driver priced this low. However, in his first Bristol race with Spire Motorsports he started P13 and finished 30^th. But in the seven races prior to this year, when he was with Front Row Motorsports, he had six finishes of 14^th or better including five finishes of 11^th or better.

McDowell hasn’t had a great opening year with Spire. But of late the results have been better. Even last week he started P28 and finished 14^th at Gateway. He’s done well finishing in the top 20 over the last two months.

I also considered using the Front Row track history to maybe make an argument for Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, and/or Todd Gilliland, who I’ll get to next. But this is a difficult track that caters to veteran drivers with more experience. So I’m going to give McDowell another shot based on the overall track history and hope he redeems himself for his last result in the spring.

Now Justin Haley looked great during his group’s practice session but even following his run he acknowledged that Spire brought some competitive cars to the track this weekend so that’s a nice note for McDowell who qualified the worst of all three Spire drivers.

Todd Gilliland – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $3,000

We probably don’t need to go all the way down to Gilly on FanDuel, but if you need the salary relief then he’s fine but he has such a low shot at being optimal on that site. For DraftKings, he starts far enough back where I can stomach the play even if he does lose the lead lap, which is likely.

For this season he did take over McDowell’s car and we just touched on the good runs McDowell had over the years with Front Row Motorsports. Gilliland hasn’t been as consistent obviously, but if/when Gilliland loses the lead lap he still has plenty of room to move up 10+ spots and still provide some semblance of a return for our NASCAR DFS lineups. He has two top 20 finishes in five Cup Series races here, but the last three races haven’t gone well. Let’s hope he bucks that trend Saturday night.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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