We have made it to the final race of the Round of 12 after a very exciting finish at Kansas Speedway that saw Chase Elliott get the win and lock in his spot in the Round of Eight. A lot of the drama with the finish surrounded Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace. Wallace arguably needed the win to lock himself into the next round and Hamlin owns the car that Wallace drives. But Hamlin, with a backup pit crew, wanted to try and secure his spot in the next round as he’ll have the same pit crew this weekend for the ROVAL. Bubba didn’t get the win and now has a large hill to climb at a road course, where he hasn’t always been the most successful driver.

But we turn our attention to this weekend’s action. It’s the final road course of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season and obviously there are some road ringers we give a slight edge to in terms of NASCAR DFS exposure, even if they may not still be in the playoff picture. Let’s dig into the NASCAR DFS picks and strategies for this week’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 from Charlotte Motor Speedway!

 

 

 

Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course

The NASCAR schedule is absolutely loaded with road courses nowadays. But we should be a little objective with how we assess tracks. The ROVAL is not nearly as technical as COTA or Mexico City. Those are F1 circuits with incredibly challenging turns and elevation changes. This track is also nothing like the Chicago Street Course nor does it resemble Watkins Glen or Sonoma.

The ROVAL really is a one-of-a-kind road course. It’s a hybrid between the Charlotte Motor Speedway oval and the road course that lays out in the infield. We still want to pull traditional road course data because the road course specialists do tend to perform better here than other drivers.

The NASCAR DFS strategy largely remains the same. We have 109 laps for this race, which is more than some of the other road courses. But that still only equates to about 70 dominator points available to us on DraftKings. And for FanDuel, that means we have just 10.9 laps led points to consider. This is largely a slate where we want to target position differential and win equity. If we just so happen to be in position where some of our drivers can lead laps or register a fast lap then that helps our builds.

Some builds may be built entirely going off position differential. But ownership is consolidated heavily to those drivers because the field knows that dominator points don’t matter nearly as much this week. Track position is key, like it is at most road courses, and if you spin or have any issues/penalties on pit road, it can be incredibly difficult to make up that track position, especially late in the race.

This is a cut off race as four drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs after this race. If you need a reference for how the standings currently look and who is on the cusp of elimination, you can check out this link right here.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The data above represents the last five Charlotte Roval races. Two of those races (2020 and 2021) are baked into the data above. And then three NextGen races are also included in this data. I find that to be worth noting because over the last five Roval races nearly 77.2% of the laps led are coming from drivers starting inside the top 10. And as you’ll see from the same trends table, we’re getting a lot of win equity from drivers starting in the first five rows.

But when we look at the NextGen races at the Roval, we’re seeing even more dominance from drivers starting inside the top 10. In looking at the three NextGen races at the Roval, 94.85% of the laps led are coming from drivers starting inside the top 10. This race could be a bit of a snoozefest if it’s short of cautions. This track has plenty of runoff and NASCAR isn’t as quick to the trigger throwing the yellow flag for a caution. Moreover, with road courses we tend to see longer green flag runs where cars are spread out amongst the field. While it’s difficult to get lapped at these tracks, the racing can be rather boring and not nearly as exciting as last week’s race at Kansas.

The polesitter score is above average but doesn’t necessarily stand out by any means. Each of the last four polesitters at the ROVAL have all led 20+ laps, but only one managed to finish in the top five. 20 laps led equates to just five fantasy points on DraftKings. If you fall out of the top five, those laps led are wiped out by the negative PD points. None of those drivers eclipsed 50+ points on DraftKings. It’s possible that one driver in this race exceeds 70+ fantasy points on DraftKings like Kyle Larson did last year when he won this race. But for the most part we usually see a handful of drivers put up 45+ fantasy points while a few value plays come through for 35-40 points. This race won’t have the biggest scores and the overall standings are a bit more tight than usual so it’s even more important to truly nail the correct drivers that finish well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Bank of America ROVAL 400

Road courses are always a bit weird when it comes to practice. It’s hard to really gauge practice speeds and their legitimacy because most teams just want to get some laps in, get a read on the setup, and then go hard for the qualifying lap and start with great track position. That was definitely the case for Tyler Reddick who won the pole.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway was the overall tire fall off we saw during Saturday’s practice session. It should make for some exciting strategies on Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see how teams break up the stages and what strategy they want to go on for Stage 3. But overall the qualifying results gave us some great options across the board so let’s check out the latest NASCAR DFS picks for the Bank of America ROVAL 400!

 

Bank of America ROVAL 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Shane Van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $12,500 | FanDuel: $14,500

This race is part oval, part road course and at the end of the day we always keep SVG in consideration at a road course. The pricing is aggressive, but this race has over 100 laps and we’ll have right around 70 dominator points. So even if SVG is this pricy he can still return the goods.

SVG won at Watkins Glen and returned over 60 fantasy points. He won at Sonoma and returned over 85 points. He won Chicago and delivered over 60 fantasy points. He won at Mexico City and posted over 68 fantasy points. He’s won on four straight road courses at the Cup Series level and in his wins on Sunday, he’s likely returning over 60 points. And while we normally seek out value, if you’re returning 60+ fantasy points at a road course, there’s a great chance you’re in the optimal lineup.

Now we don’t need to go too heavy here. It’ll honestly be a good spot to maybe gain leverage but not fully fading. He’s not in the playoffs anymore, but the win equity is still there. But if he were to have any issues it would be wise to have some lineups without him because he’ll likely draw over 40% ownership.

William Byron – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,000

Most of the field may choose to go with Chase Elliott, who starts right behind Byron. I’m happy to play both but I prefer Byron just slightly. Elliott has the great road course pedigree, but he also won last week and is locked into the next round. Byron is 40 points above the cut line and might have his spot secured by the end of Stage 2.

Track history is also on Byron’s side. He hasn’t led a single lap at the ROVAL in the NextGen era but he did finish 3rd in this race a year ago and he was the runner-up in 2023. He’s also a previous winner at COTA and Watkins Glen so it’s not like Byron’s incapable of winning on a road course. He starts P13 and scores well with a top five finish, but Elliott does offer just a little more position differential.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Both 23XI Racing drivers sit 20+ points below the cut line and the playoff field will be trimmed down to eight after this race. Last week we previewed Bubba Wallace for our NASCAR DFS picks at Kansas. And the win almost came to fruition as he was leading at the start of overtime but couldn’t seal the deal and get his second career win at Kansas.

So now it’s Tyler Reddick’s time to appear as the “crunch time” 23XI driver for the NASCAR DFS picks for the ROVAL. For a brief period, Reddick was regarded as possibly the best road course driver in the series. He previously won at Road America, COTA, and Indy Road Course but two of those tracks are no longer on the schedule.

In five career races at the ROVAL, Reddick has never finished worse than 12th and he was even the runner-up here in 2021 after starting P29. In the three NextGen races at this track, he’s led at least five laps in each race and 54 laps total. And again, this team is going to strategize to get the win because given their deficit in the standings they can’t be of the mindset they can advance based on points. They will be aggressive and going specifically for the race win.

I don’t want to sleep on Bubba Wallace but it’s hard to envision him winning. Similarly, he’ll also be as aggressive as Reddick and he won’t carry as much win equity as his teammate. But Wallace isn’t regarded as a road course specialist and yet he has two top 10 finishes in his last three ROVAL appearances.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

Allmendinger is a phenomenal value on FanDuel and reasonably priced on DraftKings. I was expecting him to be about $500-$800 more expensive just given that this is the ROVAL but $9,000 can be dealt with as he has 50+ fantasy point upside.

Allmendinger absolutely loves this track. My one concern recommending this play is that I’m looking almost strictly at the track history when he’s arguably been better on ovals this year than road courses. Allmendinger has raced at the ROVAL five times in his Xfinity Series career. He won four of those races. The one race he lost he finished as the runner-up. He won this race two years ago in the Cup Series and also finished 6th in 2024 and 4th in 2022. Across the three NextGen races at the ROVAL he’s led 84 laps.

He doesn’t have a single top five finish in the five road courses races on the 2025 schedule. That’s a little concerning. In fact, he only has one top 10 finish which came at Chicago. So I am somewhat concerned and it’s possible we’re putting too much emphasis on the ROVAL resume compared to what he’s done this year, but it’s so hard to write him off at this track.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,500

Buescher is a solid road course driver. We saw him duel with SVG at Watkins Glen last year and get the win and he previously came pretty close to winning at Sonoma in the NextGen Era. In last year’s ROVAL race he started P29 and finished 17th which didn’t kill his fantasy score, but it also wasn’t an elite by any means because most anticipated more position differential.

Prior to last year’s disappointment he did finish 7th here in 2023, 6th in 2022, and 3rd in 2021. He has a 5.0 average finished at Watkins Glen in the NextGen era and an average finished of 6.3 at Sonoma. As long as we weren’t in the most technical road course layouts (COTA and Mexico City), he has legitimate top five equity and a shot to win. The secret is out a bit on Buescher being a capable road ringer but the starting spot relegates him to only GPP’s for this race.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

This is a shot at redemption for Bowman this week. He’s no longer in the playoff picture but he was disqualified from this race a year ago after failing post-race tech inspection. And that DQ resulted in him being eliminated from the 2024 playoff picture, which put Logano back in the playoffs and Logano went on to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

So on Driver Averages, last year’s 38th place result drags his average finish down but that was only because he was DQ’d. He finished 18th in the actual race. That’s by far his worst result at the ROVAL but mind you in his five other races at this track he finished top 10 in all of them.

He’s a previous winner at the Chicago Street Course and he’s been in contention at COTA in the past. I wouldn’t say he has win equity for this race, but tire wear and strategy will come into play here and his crew chief, Blake Harris, is more aggressive in terms of strategic decisions so he’s a high upside play starting P25.

Kyle Busch – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $7,000

I’ll add the caveat that Kyle Busch has been simply dreadful this season and the setups of late for both he and Austin Dillon are consistently missing the mark. So I know he’s not coming into this race with momentum and there’s significant risk.

If this was an oval, then yes, we probably lay off the play. He could get lapped or just run terribly and have no shot at improving his position. Busch has strangely been pretty good at the ROVAL. Last year he finished 13th in this race and prior to that he rattled off three straight finishes of 4th or better.

And as bad as he’s been this year, the road course results have still been fine. He finished 5th at COTA with 42 laps led, then he was 5th at Chicago, and 10th at Sonoma. He’s not a lock for another top 10 finish but he’s affordable on both sites and offers position differential which is what matters most for DFS at a road course. And if there’s chaos at the ROVAL, as there usually is, then he doesn’t even need to have the best car. He just needs to run a clean race and move up while others shoot themselves in the foot.

Joey Logano – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,500

Logano is definitely more of a value play on FanDuel but I mostly play on DraftKings so I’ll acknowledge the price is better on FanDuel. But I still love this play for both sites and the price tag is not restrictive in the least bit.

Logano isn’t held in high regard as a road course specialist but historically he has not been awful at this track. In seven career Cup Series race at the ROVAL, Logano has finished outside the top 10 just once. He finished 8th here in 2024 but finished second in stages 1 and 2. He even grabbed a top five result in 2023 and was the runner-up way back in 2020.

The results on the road courses this year haven’t been elite, but he finished 11th at Chicago, 9th at Sonoma, and 14th at Watkins Glen. The fact that this track incorporates some of this track’s oval may help someone like Logano. It’s not a technical track but there’s clear top 10 potential with this play. And remember, he’s not a lock to advance to the next round. He’s only 13 points above the cut line and could potentially still miss so he does need to run well even though he may be chasing stage points as well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

We’ll run into plenty of chalk in the value range for our NASCAR DFS picks. A lot of these salary savers are starting pretty far back. Hocevar is a talented, young driver who is fairly aggressive much to the dismay of his fellow drivers.

But this doesn’t feel like a race where anyone’s out for blood with Hocevar and he offers plenty of position differential starting P27. A year ago in this race he started P20 and finished 12th and so far this year he finished 13th at COTA and 18th at Watkins Glen. Hocevar was also running pretty well before he spun late at Mexico City which brought out a late caution and he unfortunately finished a lap down.

He may draw a lot of attention and if you’d prefer you can pivot to Daniel Suarez who is a pretty underrated road course driver. The downside to playing Suarez is that Trackhouse Racing is more invested in Ross Chastain and SVG for this race.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

Another week and another Playbook where Ryan Preece is mentioned. And with Talladega still on the playoff schedule this certainly won’t be the last time he makes it in. Preece isn’t a road ringer by any means, but he has good track history and he qualified just inside the top 30 so we have a lot of position differential to work with.

His worst finish here is 25th and that came last year with Stewart-Haas Racing. But he also started P34 for that race so it wasn’t a completely devastating performance for DFS. But in the four prior races at the ROVAL he finished between 11th and 21st.

In his first year with RFK Racing he finished 15th at Mexico City, 7th at the Chicago Street Course, 12th at Sonoma, and 13th at Watkins Glen. It’s entirely possible he’s been picking teammate Chris Buescher’s brain about road courses but it’s entirely possible that Preece’s floor is gaining 10 spots of PD and finishing inside the top 20 if he runs a clean race.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $4,200

You may not need to play Jones on FanDuel because I’m not exactly sure he has the greatest ceiling to hit the optimal build over there. But Jones has the safest floor on the entire slate because he can’t register negative fantasy points. He starts dead last after not posting a qualifying lap on Saturday because the team wanted to diagnose a power steering issue.

Road courses obviously aren’t his cup of tea. But so far this year he finished 27th at COTA, 17th at Mexico City, 25th at Chicago, 29th at Sonoma, and 12th(!) at Watkins Glen. Some of those results aren’t great but considering where he’s starting for this race, if he was to finish 25th he’s gaining 12 spots and would be flirting with 30 fantasy points on DraftKings.

The ROVAL is a tough track for him because he’s wrecked in three of his last six races here including the last two. However, when he wasn’t wrecking in the other three races, he finished 17th or better. So there’s upside in addition to a safe enough floor for cash games.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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