The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are officially underway, and we kick things off with the Round of 16 from Darlington Raceway. The Southern 500 has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule for a long time and this is considered a crown jewel track for NASCAR. Moreover, Darlington typically produces phenomenal racing when you consider the multiple grooves of the track and the older surface. That will lead to the classic tire management narrative throughout the race.

There are 16 drivers eligible for the playoffs and if you are a playoff driver that wins a race, you automatically move on to the next round. It’s definitely a group that offers some variety for sure, but it’s always wise to emphasize the playoff drivers as they’ll likely make more aggressive decisions for playoff points and track position. This is always one of my favorite races every year even without the throwback paint schemes. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and strategies for Sunday night’s Southern 500!

 

 

 

Darlington Raceway

We can offer up a quick preview of the track, but this is the second time we’ve seen NASCAR visit Darlington this season. It’s a very difficult track. Running the high line along the wall is great if you’re one of the more aggressive drivers, but at the same time you are at risk of collecting a Darlington stripe if you get too close and tag the wall.

The track measures in at 1.366 miles and the surface is very old. We touch on that for almost every Darlington race. Tires and speed will fall off very fast, so those who can manage tires have an edge at this track. Darlington is also unique with regard to its turns. Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 25 degrees while 3 and 4 are at 23 degrees. But Darlington is shaped like an egg so the turn radius at both ends of the track is not identical, similar to Gateway in the Midwest.

The trends table above and the scoring trends below for DraftKings and FanDuel offer some very insightful information for this week’s race. For starters, we need to touch on the dominator points because there are plenty for this race. If you look at the trends table above, a whopping 93.5% of the laps led have come from drivers starting in the top 10 over the last five races. That’s key when building both FanDuel and DraftKings lineups. Four of the last five Darlington winners have also come from drivers starting in the first two rows. But be sure to read on because I want to dissect each of the last five races in the next section.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

For the interest of context we should keep in mind the spring Darlington race typically is only 400 miles while the fall race is 500. So there are some scoring disparities between the two races due to the different number of laps.

The 2025 Darlington spring race was absolutely dominated by William Byron, who started on the pole. He led 243 laps with 86 fastest laps. Nobody who started outside the top 10 led a lap and only four drivers recorded double-digit fastest laps. Denny Hamlin won the race, but Byron had the best car all day. Byron’s massive scores of 140.45 points on DraftKings and 93.5 points on FanDuel are actually inflating the scoring charts above a bit. And we’ll see why shortly.

Last fall’s race was somewhat similar. Kyle Larson led 263 laps with 40 fastest laps after he started and finish fourth. Chase Briscoe (started P3) and won the race with Stewart-Haas Racing and he had 29 fastest laps and 29 laps led. Bubba Wallace started on the pole but finished 16th. Either way, he led 37 laps. Those three drivers, who started in the first two rows, led a total of 329 laps.

Now we look at the 2024 spring race where Brad Keselowski scored his lone win since joining RFK Racing. Kez got the win after starting P2 and Ty Gibbs finished second after he started P4. Those two combined for 71 laps led and 52 fastest laps. Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher started P1 and P3 respectively but finished 32nd and 30th. They combined for 195 laps led and 87 fastest laps. So the first two rows were dominant but two of them had great misfortunes late in the race.

This race two years ago saw Kyle Larson win after starting P18. That isn’t too much of a surprise since this is one of his best tracks. Larson led 55 laps with 30 fastest laps in his winning effort. Tyler Reddick finish second after staring P3 with 90 laps led and 27 fastest laps. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin made up the front row for that race and combined to lead 217 laps with 68 fastest laps. However, their scores were dragged down a bit because they both finished outside the top 20.

In the spring of 2023, William Byron got the win after starting P4 but he led just seven laps. In fact, the top 19 finishers in that race led a total of 28 laps. Ross Chastain started P5 but finished 29th with 93 laps led and 31 fastest laps. The polesitter, Martin Truex Jr., finished 31st but had 145 laps led and 65 fastest laps.

So the polesitter score looks great above because of what William Byron did here in the spring of this year. But if we dig into the other races and provide context, the polesitter and those with track position benefit with the dominator potential. But historically they’ve run into some bad luck. I still like the idea of getting two drivers starting in the top four but we should be mindful that the polesitter has just one top 15 finish in the last five races here, and that was Byron this past spring. The driver starting P2 has finished in the top 20 in just two of the last five races here. That includes Keselowski’s win in the spring of 2024 and Bubba Wallace’s top five finish in the spring of 2023.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Southern 500

It’s not that the practice notes aren’t worthwhile this week. My big concern is that we settle in and watch this race Sunday night and the speeds from practice just don’t matter. Practice and qualifying were held Saturday morning and then the cars cool off for nearly 30 hours when the race is Sunday night.

We see it all the time. A long layoff for the cars with overnight conditions can alter some things. But the fact that they practiced and qualified at a completely different time in the day from when they’ll race does give me some concern. And once again, NASCAR ran two separate groups with the playoff drivers in the second group with the worse track conditions so drivers like Haley, McDowell, Allmendinger, and Gibbs look blazing fast. If you need a reference for who was fast within their respective groups, I suggest checking out this link from Ryan with iFantasyRace.

 

Southern 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

We hammered on how good the polesitter can be despite the fact they haven’t had the greatest fortune when it comes to finishing. Hamlin did win here in the spring, but he didn’t have the best car. His practice speeds were rather mediocre on Saturday, but perhaps the car is set up for race trim. This is a very difficult track and Hamlin has managed to collect five wins at Darlington in 26 career races.

Two years ago in this very race he started P2 and won the first two stages with 177 laps led. However, as has been the case at Darlington, he finished 25th so the negative PD certainly hurt his DFS score.

Alas, there is win equity here and the drivers starting around him don’t scare me off too much so I do believe he can jump out to an early lead and collect a nice amount of dominator points. I don’t think he should have been the most expensive driver in the field pre-flop. But now that he’s on the pole he has a pretty easy path to 20+ dominator points and possibly more.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

Byron is a previous winner at Darlington and should have won the race earlier this year. Hamlin got the win but we just touched on how dominant Byron was here in the spring. It’s very rare that social media and the broadcast touch on a driver potentially pitching a perfect game but Byron ran up front for over the first 200+ laps in the spring.

He only has two wins on the year but let’s not forget, he missed out on a pair of wins because he ran out of fuel in two additional races. But Byron’s been outstanding on the intermediates this year which also includes a runner-up finish at Charlotte where he led 283 laps.

He’s in great position in terms of points as we kick off the playoffs and he carries a lot of win equity for Sunday night’s race.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

We may need to keep Larson on a short leash as we dig into the playoff portion of the schedule. He’s not exactly entering the playoffs with good form, but he did grab back-to-back top six finishes at Richmond and Daytona.

He does have three wins this year including Homestead and Kansas which are intermediate tracks with multiple grooves. Homestead in particular carries comparable tire wear to Darlington. But Larson hasn’t won in about three-and-a-half months and he has just 68 total laps led over his last 14 races. So the current form isn’t where we’d like it to be ahead of the playoffs.

But this is a track that caters to his strengths. He’s great on high tire wear tracks and loves running along the wall at this track. In 15 career races at Darlington, he’s led 100+ laps on four different occasions including four additional races where he at least logged 30+ laps led.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,500

Blaney doesn’t have the elite track history for Darlington. In fact, in 17 races here he’s led a total of 24 laps. The top five he grabbed here in the Spring was his first ever top five at Darlington and he has just four top 10 finishes here. In reality it’s just not his best track.

However, what have we seen in recent years from Team Penske? They start cooking with gas at this time of the season. They’ve won all three of the season-long driver championships in the NextGen era. And while I have my concerns about the practice averages, Blaney did appear to have the best long run car on Saturday among the loaded pack of drivers in Group B.

We also have a little PD to work with by playing Blaney. While I’m in favor of playing two drivers starting in the top 10, if I’m not deploying that method then I’m looking at Blaney rolling off P12.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $8,200

There’s some intriguing dominator potential with Bubba for this race. He does have a win on his resume this year at Indianapolis and while the results vary from good-to-bad, he’s shown the ability to run up front more in 2025 than previous years.

He led 20 laps at Vegas, 56 laps at Homestead (comparable track to Darlington), 30 at Indianapolis, and over 100 at Richmond. Richmond isn’t a comparable track, and he also didn’t finish well, but it is a short track with high tire wear.

Bubba has finished in the top 10 in four of the last six Darlington races and he was on the pole for this race a year ago. He’s always going to be difficult to trust for cash games but the upside is worth considering for tournaments.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $9,500

Buescher was priced similarly for this race in the spring where he started P14 and finished sixth with seven fastest laps. Honestly, it’s a bit surprising that nobody from RFK Racing made the playoffs especially after they logged multiple wins as a team each of the last two years.

Buescher is still a great driver with top 10 finishes in four of the last five Darlington races. Even in the spring of 2024 (where Keselowski won), Buescher finished 7th in each of the first two stages and led 20+ laps. So I’m inclined to believe this is a relatively solid track for him.

If he can finish in the top eight with about 7-10 dominator points he can crack 50+ fantasy points which will likely put him in the optimal lineup at this price tag.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

We’re entering the territory of some position differential plays in the upper $7K range on DraftKings. I don’t have a ton of confidence in these next two plays, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t playing either driver. We start with Bowman who made the playoffs by the skin of his teeth after a disastrous performance at Daytona last week.

Bowman rolls off P29 for this race, but mind you, the practice results weren’t great for the 48-car. And sure, it’s possible it shows up with better speed for race trim, that could definitely happen. But he and Chase Elliott looked like they missed the setup for this race while William Byron and Kyle Larson look more dialed in.

Bowman can’t afford a bad run. As the playoffs kick off he’s five points below the cut line for the Round of 12. In the last two races at Darlington, he started outside the top 25 and managed finishes of just 19th and 35th so that’s part of why I’m concerned. I think the best course of action is to just match exposure to the field for Sunday’s race or possibly go underweight. I really wouldn’t want to be overweight on this play.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,500

Kez is our other PD pivot in this range. Above all else, he has better track history than Bowman especially after he won here in the spring of 2024. Keselowski didn’t have a good run here this past spring but in four of the last six NextGen races he’s finished 7th or better.

Sure, the team is out of the playoffs and the practice speeds were off. But this is a driver who rattled off plenty of top 12 finishes down the stretch to keep his playoff hopes alive after a rough start to the year. All Keselowski needs to do at this price tag is finish 17th with zero dominator points and we’re getting 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings. Ownership will be high but I prefer getting more exposure to him than Bowman in all formats.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

I don’t blame you one bit if this play makes you a bit squeamish. I don’t love it either just knowing what Cindric is typically capable of on a non-drafting track. But we also know that Team Penske does get better around this time of year and Cindric is still a playoff eligible driver.

In Group B he had surprisingly good long run speed ranking top five in the group for the longer metrics (20, 25, and 30 laps). The starting spot is certainly going to suppress ownership, so I do prefer him more for tournaments obviously. And while we wish we could squeeze a little more PD out of this play it’s worth mentioning that he finished 11th and 13th in the last two Darlington races so it’s not like we should count him out completely for a top 10 finish.

While we obviously aren’t playing him in cash games, if it makes you feel better you can certainly consider Carson Hocevar or Ryan Preece who are priced below him on DraftKings and they offer more PD. But I really think Cindric could surprise especially if the team is close to the setup Blaney brought to the track.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,200

The price on Gibbs remains low. He’s certainly underperformed in the Cup Series since he got promoted after winning the Xfinity Series championship a few years back. But the pricing on both sites is too cheap for a Joe Gibbs Racing car. And yes, the team is likely allocating more resources and attention to the other three playoff drivers, but Gibbs’ car should still do well for this price tag.

Since the beginning of the NextGen era, Gibbs actually has the eighth-best average finish (13.8) and that includes top 10 finishes in two of his last three appearances at Darlington.

The recent form is questionable and it could simply be so that Gibbs isn’t as good as we thought he was. But it’s hard to imagine him losing the ride anytime soon since he has nepotism on his side. But for DFS, he’s a driver who has returned 40+ points seven times this year and carries top 10 equity.

Michael McDowell – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $5,000

There’s certainly a “gut call” aspect with McDowell for this race. He’s another driver who went out in Group A and looked really good. It hasn’t been a magical season for McDowell in his first season with Spire Motorsports. But at the same time, we’ve seen plenty of top 10 finishes from him and he’s an experienced driver at the end of the day.

The price tag on DraftKings is also very inviting. We don’t typically get access to McDowell starting this deep in the field, so the combination of pricing and PD makes building lineups easier. Darlington wasn’t kind to him this past spring but in three NextGen races with Front Row Motorsports he did manage to collect three top 10 finishes.

Todd Gilliland – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

I’m sure Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will grab plenty of attention as well, but Gilliland’s track history isn’t so bad at Darlington. And we just discussed a previous Front Row Motorsports driver (McDowell) so this is a nice segue to Gilliland. He’s run all seven NextGen races at Darlington with four finishes in the top 15 and another where he finished 17th. That’s not so bad when you consider he’ll be starting P28 for Sunday’s race.

Gilliland’s practice speeds in the practice-to-qualifying table above are a bit misleading because he did go out in the first practice group. But in that session he was still top five in 20-and-25 lap metrics. If he can keep the car clean and chip away at track position, he’s returning value with a top 20 and potentially landing in the optimal lineup with a top 15 finish at such a cheap price tag.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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