As the first half of the 2018 MLB season comes to a close, we have a reason to look back and take in everything we’ve witnessed thus far. Its always important to take a deep breath and clear your head in life, no matter what you’re doing. That’s basically the theme here in this edition of Managerial Tendencies as we take a look back on the first half and sort through the hand that MLB managers dealt us. We’ll take a look at several situations that have affected us in the fantasy world and what kind of future implications they will have.
Red Light, Green Light
There are five teams in 2018 that are “running away” from the rest of the league in the steals department in the first half. In order of rank, Craig Counsell (MIL), Alex Cora (BOS), Terry Francona (CLE), Rick Renteria (CHW) and Dave Martinez (WAS) are giving the green light to baserunners more often than other managers, directly benefitting us all who have hitters on these rosters. Michael Taylor , Trea Turner , Tim Anderson , José Ramírez , Mookie Betts , Andrew Benintendi and Lorenzo Cain are all in the top twelve in steals and play for the teams listed above. Speed kills and there no reason to think any of it is a fluke as all but the White Sox finished 2017 in the top half of the league in steals. The White Sox just simply look to be more aggressive as they continue to set the ground work for the new direction of the franchise while rebuilding.
On the flip side of this, the Oakland Athletics are the only team in baseball under 40 steal attempts this season. The team is 21 out of 37 in steal attempts and are tied for sixth in the league in home runs with 126 and appear to be a team built to hit the long ball. Marcus Semien has 10 of those 21 steals so outside of the short stop you wont be getting much help from Oakland if you’re in need of steals.
The Opener
If you’ve read the Managerial Tendencies articles every week you’ve definitely been introduced to what Kevin Cash and the Rays are doing in regards to handling their pitching. If you haven’t, here’s a summary. Kevin Cash is starting relievers with effectiveness geared towards the lineups being built by opposing teams and bringing in a long relief pitcher in after an inning or two to get them to the late innings. For example, the Rays will likely start Sergio Romo against teams top heavy with right handed bats and Ryne Stanek against teams that have more lefties at the top of the lineup as their splits and pitches are better suited to handle those situations.
Cash will mix and match with the best of them and has the players buying in to this strategy. Pitchers like Ryan Yarbrough and Matt Andreise, typically starting pitchers, have bought into being brought in around the second or third inning and giving the team as many effective innings as possible. The idea behind all of this is to use the best matchups possible for what is usually the best three hitters in a lineup the first time through and then bringing in the “starter” to handle the lineup the second and third time around. Historically, the most runs are scored in the first inning of
a game than any other and ERA’s are the worst for starters the third and fourth time through the order. This strategy eliminates both and the Rays team ERA since they began this experiment is a league leading 3.01 and they are also owners of a league leading wOBA of .274. The success the team is having using “The Opener” means it wont be going away any time soon.
Closer Roulette
As is the same every single season, the closer role in Major League Baseball is a revolving door. Some managers will let a closer struggle and hope that they work themselves out of it and others will yank them out of that role faster than they gave it out. There’s also the injury bug, which has claimed Hunter Strickland , Arodys Vizcaíno and Sean Doolittle . Roberto Osuna was also suspended for 75 games for violating MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence Policy and its uncertain what the Blue Jays intend to do when he is allowed to return to the team on August 5th. The Rays traded closer Álex Colomé to the Mariners and Sergio Romo has converted the majority of save opportunities since then, at least when he’s not starting. I can’t believe I just typed that sentence. Here are the players who have actually lost their roles due to a lack of production, an injury that kept them from regaining their role or the normal closer returned from injury, as well as who replaced them in parenthesis. . Brad Brach (Zach Britton return from DL), Nate Jones (Joakim Soria ), Ken Giles (Héctor Rondón ), Cam Bedrosian (Blake Parker ), Brad Zeigler (Kyle Barraclough ), Héctor Neris (Dominguez and Arano) and the debacle in St. Louis that newly fired manager Mike Matheny created having Leone, Holland, Hicks, Norris and Gregerson all mentioned as potential closers throughout the season without ever really naming one (Bud Norris likely the guy here). You may have heard before your draft this season “DO NOT pay for saves!”. Every year it happens and closers get drafted too early and lose their jobs by June 1st. As you can see, it has happened again folks. MOST managers do everything in their power to win every single game, making an important position like a closer a position of frequent change.
Manager Tendencies and their role in fantasy
The All-Star break is a great time for reflection of the both the season as a whole and your fantasy rosters. As you can see, managers in the big leagues have an enormous role in fantasy as our players’ playing time, spot in the order and roles on the team are all in these guy’s hands. While there isnt much we can do about what a manager decides at this point, we can prepare ourselves for the second half based on the information given to us thus far by their decisions up to this point. For example, we shouldn’t expect Oakland to start swiping bags or Washington to stop. Based on what we’ve seen, why would you?
We also have to keep our eyes on a team like the Cardinals, who just fired their manager and have named bench coach Mike Shildt the interim manager. Obviously, firing your manager means the team is looking for something else, a new direction. Keep an eye on which direction that is. Managers affect our players values and future with their lineup decisions, leashes on pitchers and the frequency in which they steal and change roles within their bullpens. That’s more than enough reason to learn about them and put ourselves in the best position possible to make the best roster decisions we can. See you guys in the second half! #FANation