Shortstop is totally stacked again this season and before the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury, we had three players going in the first five picks (Tatis, Trea Turner, and Bo Bichette). This position is also deep and filled with veterans and up and coming stars.
A bust can have many definitions. But in simple terms, it is a player that does not return profit based on his ADP (Average Draft Position). You never want to swing and whiff in your draft because a bust can create a huge hole in your lineup and one that you may never dig out of during the entire season. Here are a few shortstops that have red flags and are being drafted too high with a small chance to return the expected value at their current ADP.
I’m a Jazz Chisholm Jr. fan and we need more players like him in the game. He has power and speed upside, which was on full display on a Saturday afternoon last April when he turned on a Jacob deGrom 100-mph fastball and sent it to the upper deck in Citi Field. deGrom had one of his finest outings of the season that day and was untouchable except for Chisholm’s bat.
People want to believe in the power and speed but from June 1st until October, Chisholm’s slash was only .232/.285/.398. His strikeout rate was 28.6% (bottom 10% of the league) and walk rate at 6.7% (19th percentile) - not exactly dazzling numbers for a leadoff hitter. Chisholm will hit high enough in the order to get plenty of opportunities, but with steals being his only plus category at the moment, a top-80 pick (currently 77.88 ADP) is risky, especially with players like Corey Seager and Carlos Correa behind him in drafts.
Francisco Lindor has had a solid career and has been known to have five-category skills. From 2017 to 2019, he hit at least 30 home runs with 100 runs, 75 RBIs and 15 steals to go along with a mid-.270 average.
That has changed the last two years and in 2021, Lindor had a career-worst 18.3% strikeout rate - following up on a poor 15.4% from the season before. The stolen base has been a big part of Lindor’s skillset as he has stolen at least 15 bases every season since 2015 until 2021, when he didn’t even attempt 15 steals (only 10 in 14 attempts in a prime #2 spot in the order). This season, he should be batting third behind Starling Marte, which will even further reduce his chances.
2021 was a rough debut season with the Mets and a slash of .230/.322/.412 with 20 home runs and a 103wRC+ was just mediocre. He should be a bit better this season, but the 30-home run and 100 RBI days may be a thing of the past. When you are pulling a wRC+ in the low 100’s, an ADP of 50.54 is just too high for a player with diminishing speed and batted-ball profile.
Josh Rojas will be hitting leadoff again for the Diamondbacks and he does have some pop in his bat and a little speed, but it all stops there. He is being drafted about 75 spots too high with an ADP of 237, which is pretty good considering he is far below the league average in xwOBA (.299-16th percentile); barrel % (4.8%- 18th percentile); xSLG (.357-14% percentile) and a bottom 9% of the league in hard-hit (31.1%). His 105-mph exit velocity was worse than every player in the league but two and 96% of the players in the league had a higher out-above-average rate.
Last season’s .264 batting average with 11 home runs and nine stolen bases was not terrible for a multi-position player, but after looking at Rojas' Statcast metrics, there was a lot of luck involved to even get to those mediocre numbers. If you draft Rojas for the steals category, beware that he still needs to get on base to swipe a bag and a 25% strikeout rate doesn’t help that at all. Beware when drafting Rojas too early.
- 2022 MLB Free Agent Tracker
- 2022 Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet
- Shortstops: Old Faces in New Places
- Shortstops: Breakout Players to Target
- Shortstops: Sleepers to Target