We have all been there. You set your MLB DFS lineup on Sunday, making sure the guys you choose are actually starting that day. When it is time to choose a second baseman, you realize Howie Kendrick is by far the best option. The only problem: the Dodgers play a late game, and their lineup won’t be announced until after your lineup locks. What do you do?
Lately I have had several different people ask me some form of that question. A very similar issue, which I believe belongs in this discussion as well, is how to approach the threat of rain for MLB DFS play. I’m not sure there is really any right or wrong answer, but I know I have found what—for the most part—works for me.
In general, I don’t worry too much about weather and/or guys playing in late games. That mindset has absolutely cost me money. There have been times I have started players despite the threat of rain or benching and have taken an unnecessary zero. Would it have cost me more to play lesser players I was certain would play? I don’t know. I’m pretty sure I would have more money right now if I would just play it safe.
The problem is, I’m not really wired that way, at least when it comes to DFS. I get cognitive dissonance just thinking about playing a suboptimal lineup, even if I have a very good reason for doing so. I could try to learn to deal with it, but I have already learned to deal with taking a zero when somebody isn’t in a lineup or when a game is rained out, so I’m probably just going to continue to do what works for me.
I think it is worth it for me psychologically, if not financially. That being said, there is a point where you are just taking an unnecessary risk. I won’t usually start a catcher playing in a late game, because catchers are far more likely to get random days off. The same goes for guys like Carlos Gonzalez who get rested fairly regularly. There is a fine line between taking a calculated risk and an unnecessary one. That being said, I have no problem rolling the dice on a platoon guy like Ryan Raburn. He will almost certainly bat in the middle of the order when the Indians face a lefty, and the risk is often pretty minimal because his price is usually low. You can still finish in the money even if you take a zero from Ryan Raburn.
If you are the kind of person who takes to message boards or social media to spit venom at someone for not knowing the Cubs game would be rained out, or that Robinson Cano would get a random day off, then you should probably avoid those situations. If taking a zero is going to ruin your night, just play someone you know is in the lineup in a dry weather game and rest easy.
Obviously if you play on DraftKings, you don’t have to worry about this quite as much since you can edit your lineup so long as a player’s game hasn’t started yet. Of course, you still have to pay attention when lineups are posted, and you could have to reconstruct most of your lineup if a couple of key players are scratched. On DraftKings, I simply construct my best lineup and worry about changing things later if I have to. I understand completely if you’d rather just avoid it and play guys with earlier games. Just because you can alter your lineups later doesn’t mean you should. It could be easier to avoid it altogether.
As for weather, I worry about rain far more for pitchers than for hitters. If the Nationals have a two-hour rain delay, Bryce Harper should be just fine. Max Scherzer, on the other hand, probably won’t come back out to pitch after so much downtime. A long delay can be just as problematic as a rainout for pitchers, while with hitters you only have to worry about the game getting postponed. I still tend to ignore the threat of rain more than I should in my DFS play, and I almost always ignore it when I write the MLB DFS Playbook or the Pitching Coach. I usually put those articles together several hours before the games start, and I would hate to ignore some great DFS plays due to the threat of a thunderstorm that never develops. Fantasy Alarm does a great job of tracking the weather on Twitter, the main page and the lineups page, and I trust you readers to take that information and act accordingly though I do try to update them as necessary.
In the end, it is up to every DFS player to determine how much risk they are willing to take. Hopefully you are more willing to avoid risk and play a weaker player than I am. That being said, I have learned to embrace my peculiarities rather than try to fight them, and that could work for you as well.