Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s 15-game slate.
Toronto Blue Jays
The chalk tonight in Vegas is Arizona, Toronto and Boston as those three teams all have expected run totals higher than five-and-a-half runs. Of those three, Toronto may be the most stackable against Bartolo Colon. Colon plays stack-friendly because he struggles against hitters from both sides of the plate. Lefties have a healthy .376 wOBA with the platoon advantage against Bartolo this season, and same-handed hitters have been even better against him with a .404 wOBA.
Steve Pearce, Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak have been Toronto’s best hitters against right-handed hitters this season as they’ve all been at least 20 percent better than league average against righties. They’ve hit 1-2-3 in Toronto’s order the last two games, which obviously makes for a nice stack. Ezequiel Carrera has also been very good against right-handers this season, but Toronto doesn’t put him in the lineup enough, even against righties where he has the platoon advantage. But if Carrera makes it in tonight, he’s a good option.
Great American Ballpark
With the Rockies on the road this weekend, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is easily the most hitter-friendly park in play tonight. Ivan Nova will start for the visiting Pirates against Cincy’s Robert Stephenson.
Nova has been struggling of late with a 5.63 ERA in seven starts since the Break. His xFIP is 3.81 thanks to solid strikeout and walk rates in the second half, which might make it seem like he’s just had bad luck. But when batters are making contact against Nova, they’re making very good contact. Nova’s 42.9 percent hard contact rate allowed since the Break is the second worst rate among today’s probable starters, second only to Colon.
Only four of today’s probable starters have a hard contact rate allowed higher than 40 percent since the Break, and both are pitching in this game as Stephenson joins Nova in that less-than-illustrious club. Stephenson also has as many strikeouts as he does walks in four starts this season. If you’re looking for a game stack, this is it.
Pittsburgh’s best hitters against right-handers this season have been Josh Bell, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen with Jose Osuna and John Jaso also showing some pop against righties. The Reds are much tougher on righties with five guys who have a wRC+ north of 120 versus right-handers. Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett, Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez are those five guys.
Vegas isn’t all over these teams as Pittsburgh only has the ninth highest expected run total of the night, and the Reds only have the 14th highest expected total. The non-chalk factor makes stacking here even more appealing.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s not exactly clear why the Dodgers only have the 13th highest expected run total tonight. The Dodgers rank second in wRC+ for the season, fourth in wRC+ since the Break, and eighth in home wOBA for the season. Given that wOBA does not include a park factor component, the Dodgers are clearly dangerous even at home in their park that leans pitcher-friendly.
Tonight, the Dodgers will host the Brewers and Chase Anderson. Active Dodgers have faced Anderson a total of 77 times, which isn’t a huge sample size, but it’s large enough to take note of how well they’ve hit him. In those 77 combined PA, the Dodgers have a .460 wOBA with seven home runs. Anderson has certainly pitched well this season, and he was solid in his first start back from injury in Coors last week. But the Dodgers are a tough matchup and a top offense you can stack with likely low ownership percentages.
The Dodgers have a whopping seven active hitters with a wRC+ of 118 or better against righties this season: Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, Curtis Granderson, Justin Turner and Yasmani Grandal. Of those, Grandal has done the most damage against Anderson with three home runs against him in 15 PA.