I am sad to say we have to get rid of Kitty Colvin. Yup, my little sidekick has been getting increasingly meaner to the children and myself as he bonds more with my wife Jennifer. It has gotten to the point where you have to watch where you walk because he will ambush you. For instance, the other day I was sitting at my kitchen table going over some lineups when all of a sudden I felt something slice into my ankle. I screamed in pain only to look down and find blood dripping down my leg from several lacerations, off in the distance, a fleeing cat. That little Brett Anderson (my new term for poop). My wife Jennifer is more than sad about this but I just had to explain to her with a new baby on the way and a cat everyone in the house needs to fear, he needs to go. What can you do? Trying to find someone to take an aggressive cat is not an easy task. All the nice animal shelters refuse to take him, so we’re now looking for alternative options. I guess the writing was on the wall when I caught our four-year-old holding him down trying to put Q-tips in his ear.

So today is kind of strange for a Saturday, we only have two games on the schedule prior to the usual 7 p.m. games. So with a heavy heart (as I have gained 20 lbs. in the last year) and cheap $1 iced coffee from Cumberland Farms, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

We only have two games I see any serious concern with tonight.

Cincinnati looks pretty ugly as the rain is slated to start around 12 p.m. ET and stay put till around 4 a.m.

Detroit is a little more complicated, it appears we have some rain and thunderstorms moving in around 5 p.m. ET and should remain in place until sometime around 8 p.m., then there is a clearing in the weather until around 1 a.m. So this one may work just fine for DFS purposes.

Outside of these games, the weather across the country is the usual hot and humid affair on the Eastern side of the United States while the West Coast looks beautiful as always.

Keep a close eye on the games listed above and remember, I am looking this stuff up at 4 a.m., weather is a fickle thing and has a way of changing quickly. Do not forget, just because there is rain, it does not always mean we will have a delay, but pitchers are usually best avoided in these scenarios.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Afternoon Slate

Like I said, we only have two games here and I would only play a few bucks in some GPPs on this slate if at all.

The first pitcher that jumped out at me today on this two game slate was Matt Moore, now keep in mind I am big Matt Moore guy. The Mets strike out 22.5 percent of the time and are 16th in wOBA versus LHP on the season. He gets a great park shift at home in AT&T Park and is the guy who is at the top of the list for this tiny slate.

The other guy I may use if I even run two lineups here today is A.J. Griffin.  The Tampa Rays are fourth in strikeouts in MLB versus RHP doing so 23.7 percent of the time. Griffin has a decent K/9 approaching 8 (7.76) and should be lower owned with the pounding he has taken over his last starts. Keep in mind his schedule has been brutal, he faced Colorado and Baltimore at home along with Detroit and Kansas City on the road. I often attack the Rays with RHP at home and would do so today in a GPP with Griffin.

                 vs Lvs R   
Bartolo ColonNYMRSF138.15.991.561.11.2736.1%3.384.221.24.29445.9%30.0%1.530.3240.311$7400$6300$6700
Matt MooreSFLNYM1487.543.281.28.25111.0%4.094.432.71.27539.2%42.7%0.920.3040.312$8600$8400$6700
Jake OdorizziTBRTEX142.28.262.461.32.24410.8%3.724.051.21.27838.3%40.2%0.950.2540.350$8800$7800$6700
A.J. GriffinTEXRTB84.27.763.41.81.2489.5%4.684.621.32.26934.3%43.4%0.790.4090.275$7100$7200$5900

With this little miniscule slate out of the way, let’s move onto bigger fish.

Night Slate

I decided the best way to sum up my feelings for this slate tonight should be in math form, so, good pitching in bad situations + Bad parks + weather concerns + Coors Field = play light.

Right away when you have a Coors Field game you have to choose between spending for pitching or going cheap. The problem tonight is all the cheaper options carry huge risk. They are all either in bad ballparks, facing tough teams, or have rain up against their back. In cash games tonight on a site like FanDuel I will spend up for pitching and look for some value in the hitting department while finding a way to roster a few Cubs bats. To be honest, I am not all that huge on Colorado bats today, which either will be my cash windfall, or demise.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (Cash)

King Felix gets a great park shift tonight pitching at home in Safeco Field which is 22nd in runs scored in MLB, and he is a huge -205 favorite, which makes the 8.5 expected run total not look so bad.  The Milwaukee Brewers are striking out 26.3 percent of the time (first in MLB) with a .308 wOBA and wRC+ of 85 versus RHP on the season. It does not get much better for the Brew-Crew on the road where the .302 wOBA shows it, with a negative park shift not helping the matter. Over the last seven days they are only batting a measly .229. Felix as of late has been stellar striking out 16 batters over his last 13 2/3 innings while only allowing three earned runs versus the Tigers at home and Angels on the road. His opponent tonight is also Wily Peralta which should help aid in the win which is huge on a site like FanDuel, but, believe me, if you are in the money, that little bonus helps on every site. I am all in on King Felix tonight in cash games, GPPs, you name it.

Danger Zone

First off, well, the King walks a ton of batters sometimes, how many? He is averaging four walks per game over his last four starts. Not only can this kill you on a site like DraftKings, but, it also puts runners on base which puts extra stress on every starting pitcher. Especially, when you have some stolen base guys like Keon Broxton and Johathan Villar possibly getting on. The BVP although small is favorable with the current Brewers lineups batting .179 (7-for-39) with no HR, no RBI, and 15 strikeouts.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (Cash)

Although he is the real life doppelganger for Brian Ambos, Max Scherzer is also a top play today facing the Atlanta Braves without a doubt. Mad Max is a monster -260 favorite today and this game has a low expected run total of 7.5. The Braves are striking out 20.3 percent of the time with a low .310 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home they are 28th in wOBA coming in at .302 where they also have a wRC+ of 87. Over the last seven days the Braves offense is in a scuffle batting a low .222 to further entice you. Scherzer over his last six starts which includes a start at Arizona and Colorado has 47 strikeouts over 40 innings with a low 2.70 ERA. He has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.6 percent with the 11.33 K/9 to compliment it. When you add the matchup to the upside, even at his high price, I see no way you lose with the Scherz today.

Danger Zone

Scherzer is a fly ball pitcher which always causes me to bat an eye, especially, when you have some pop in the lineup like Matt Kemp (my favorite player) and Freddie Freeman. The BVP is sizeable with the current Braves roster batting .222 (48-for-216) with five HR (Tyler Flowers, Jeff Francoeur, Freddie Freeman, Adonis Garcia, and A.J. Pierzynski), 16 RBI, and 62 strikeouts versus Mad Max. You may have noticed that most of the bats with home runs are lefties, expect Atlanta to stack them.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (GPP, borderline cash)

Chris Sale is still almost unavoidable today in some form and I can tell you know I will run a lineup with him in it. Hence, he made the article. Tonight he is home facing the Oakland Athletics so the park shift is less than favorable at U.S. Cellular Field (Sale has a 4.55 home ERA opposed to his 2.58 road ERA), but he is however a nice -199 favorite. The A’s are striking out a low 17.1 percent of the time with a decent .331 wOBA versus LHP on the season. On the road they have a .329 wOBA and are batting .261 over the last seven days while striking out 23.8 percent of the time. Sale has had a rough go of things as of late, he has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts versus the Marlins and Royals on the road. He also has 14 strikeouts over his last 13 2/3 innings to go with it. He has made five straight road starts and I look for him to get back on track today at home despite the odds being slightly stacked against him.

Danger Zone

Honestly, I believe the biggest danger is he may be getting tired. Usually around the fantasy baseball trade deadline in seasonal leagues I will start trading off big arms for big bats. The reason is, I believe, you get the most out of pitchers in the first half, they get tired, it gets hot, and it is a long season. If you draft right you can usually pick up enough SP2 types throughout the season to hold your categories when you get rid of the Sales of the world. Keep in mind, this does not apply to head-to-head leagues as much. Sale falls right into this category of great pitchers who are struggling along with Stephen Strasburg as of late and Jake Arrieta just to name a few. This is baseball, the smart fantasy player adjusts his rosters and thinking as the season goes along attacking the categories one by one to pick up points. Now back to DFS.

The BVP is favorable with the current Athletics roster batting .246 (31-for-126) with three HR (Billy Butler (3), I smell a DFS play), 15 RBI, and 34 strikeouts versus Sale. One this is for sure tonight, he will either Sale you into victory, or bad seas. I just hope the Butler does not do it.

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (GPP and expensive complimentary SP on a two-pitcher site)

All of sudden I am finding my seasonal rosters sprinkled with Arizona pitching. Think about that.

Tonight Robbie Ray is in Petco Park which used to be a favorable park shift pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5 (which is the middle-of-the-road tonight) and is a slight -119 favorite. I do not usually like to attack the Padres with LHP but tonight with limited options, Robbie could be the Ray sunshine we are looking for. The Padres are striking out 24.5 percent of the time with a semi-low .320 wOBA versus LHP on the season. At home the wOBA drops to .314 and over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .204 (last in MLB) striking out a whopping 27.3 percent of the time (third in MLB). Ray over his last two starts both versus the Mets which despite being terrible as well are still better than the Padres has a 0.75 ERA with nine strikeouts over his last 12 innings. He has a 10.89 K/9 on the season facing one the easiest teams to get whiffs against in MLB. He also has an ERA of 4.47 opposed to an xFIP of 3.38 which tells me he should excel in a better park facing a lesser team. I find his price inflated on DK and Aces but on FanDuel for $8,300 I love this play tonight.

Danger Zone

First off RHB have a .348 wOBA versus Ray which makes the Wil Myers type seem a bit dangerous. He also tends to have control problems which leads to bad stats like a 3.32 BB/9. On FanDuel this means nothing, but on DK it can really kill you if he fails to strike batters out today. The BVP is also ugly with the current Padres batting .421 (16-for-38) with two HR (Derek Norris and Yangervis Solarte), four RBI, and six strikeouts versus Ray. Keep in mind this damage was done mostly in Arizona.

Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals (GPP and complimentary pitcher on a two-pitcher site)

I actually kind of had a hard time today finding mid-priced value on the slate. It seems the salaries are all either top or bottom ended tonight.

Kennedy tonight is home facing the Minnesota Twins who strikeout 20.4 percent of the time with a decent .329 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road the twins are fourth in MLB in wOBA at .337 and are batting .257 over the last seven days. As you can see the Twins are not the pushovers they used to be. Kennedy as of last has looked incredible, over his last two starts versus the Tigers on the road and White Sox at home he has a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings while striking out seven batters. Kennedy has an 8.9 k/9 and ERA nearly a half of run lower at home. There is not a hell of a lot to talk about here, with not a lot of mid-priced options to choose from tonight Kennedy looks like Clayton Kershaw compared to most. I have no plans on using him on FD tonight, but on DK and Aces? A better option for an SP2.

Danger Zone

Besides being a fly ball pitcher which I hate, both LHB and RHB have wOBA’s over .300. He also in what seems to be a common theme today has control issues (2.95 BB/9). The BVP is not great here today with the current Twins batting .308 (16-for-52) with two HR (Joe Mauer and Trevor Plouffe), four RBI, and 11 strikeouts versus Kennedy, but the sample is small and the strikeouts are there.

Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates (Top GPP play)

One thing is for sure, Chad Kuhl has looked Kuhl as a cucumber. In his last three starts versus the Padres at home and Dodgers and Nationals on the road he has a 2.00 ERA with 14 strikeouts over 18 innings. He is the near minimum on most of the sites for SP tonight which makes him a great value play. Kuhl benefits from a positive park shift at home in PNC park which is 23rd in HR allowed in MLB. To add the cherry on top Vegas also agrees as he is a -118 favorite pitching in a game that has a low 8.0 expected run total (compared to the rest of the slate). The Marlins are certainly no pushovers even with Stanton out for the season. They are striking out 17 percent of the time with a below average .319 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road the fish are fifth in MLB in wOBA at .336 and batting a decent .277 over the last seven days. Often times when I find good pitchers with lower K/9’s (Kuhl has a 6.32 K/9 in the season) who are facing subpar teams that do not strikeout a lot, I will use them for the right price. If you want to get some of that Coors Field action, he is the best way.

Danger Zone

LHB have a .378 wOBA versus Kuhl, not cool. Otherwise, we have no BVP here. There is of course risk anytime you take a cheap SP.

Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds (GPP only, really, I mean it) (Weather concerns!)

First off, the weather is terrible today here as mentioned in the weather report. So proceed with caution and pay close attention.

Today Brandon Finnegan is at home in the Great American Small Park so the park shift is less than favorable. He is however facing the worst team in MLB versus LHP in the form of my beloved Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are striking out 20 percent of the time with a low .291 wOBA (30th in MLB) and wRC+ of 81 (28th in MLB) versus LHP on the season. On the road the boys in blue have a .329 wOBA and are red hot batting .300 over the last seven days with a wRC+ of 142. The truth is, Finnegan has shown flashes of greatness but as of late has been struggling like a lot of pitchers in MLB. Over his last two starts versus the Marlins at home and Cardinals on the road who both hit LHP better than the Dodgers, he has a 5.56 ERA over his last 11 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts. The numbers are terrible, but I just have a feeling about this one. For $1-to-$3 in GPPs, I will take chance he turns it around.

Danger Zone

RHB have a .359 wOBA versus Finnegan which makes Justin Turner look like the Hulk today. The BVP is small but quite attractive. The current Dodgers are batting .150 (3-for-20) with no HR, no RBI, and one strikeout.

I am going to throw one more name at you here. Much like Finnegan, this is a play that is totally crazy. I like Mike Montgomery, no one likes to take a SP in Coors Field. His price is dirt cheap, and I mean cheap for a player good peripherals across the board. The number of innings he goes is in question and taking a SP in Coors Field certainly sucks, but considering out of the bullpen he has 12 strikeouts over his last 8 2/3 innings facing a team that strikes out over 20-percent of the time for the near minimum, I will have that lineup with Montgomery and a loaded Cubs stack for a few dollars.

                 vs Lvs R   
Robbie RayARILSD133.010.903.181.15.27311.7%4.473.381.47.35948.8%26.7%1.820.3000.348$8300$10300$7000
Tyrell JenkinsATLRWSH46.04.115.671.57.2606.6%4.895.871.61.24252.6%28.6%1.840.3590.370$5900$4000$5550
Chris TillmanBALRHOU151.07.513.101.01.23610.4%3.464.231.21.27243.1%34.4%1.260.3110.307$8300$8700$6850
Drew PomeranzBOSLDET135.18.643.521.00.26211.7%4.593.522.50.25250.1%35.4%1.420.2710.278$8800$11300$6950
Mike MontgomeryCHILCOL69.47.882.690.51.22011.7%2.343.712.93.28959.9%19.8%3.030.2670.299$5800$4700$5700
Brandon FinneganCINLLA134.26.554.481.74.2469.3%4.555.171.42.24940.0%36.5%1.090.2990.359$6100$5600$6200
Josh TomlinCLERTOR137.06.310.991.91.2658.1%$7800$5300$6450
Chris SaleCWSLOAK160.28.791.851.01.22411.4%3.313.621.04.27041.7%34.5%1.210.2650.282$10500$12000$7650
Daniel NorrisDETLBOS23.17.713.471.16.3097.1%3.474.611.67.35538.7%33.3%1.160.4020.368$6500$5100$5700
Mike FiersHOURBAL125.26.882.151.58.2819.7%4.664.371.35.30642.6%31.1%1.370.3180.375$7600$5700$6400
Ian KennedyKCRMIN140.18.912.951.80.22911.1%3.784.121.18.25436.6%45.8%0.800.3230.311$8500$9300$6850
Brett AndersonLALCIN1.00.009.0018.00.625.0%45.0012.476.00.50025.0%37.5%0.670.8840.825$6300$5400$5600
Ricky NolascoLAARNYY141.36.712.091.39.2879.4%$6300$5900$6050
David PhelpsMIARPIT69.$6400$6100$6200
Wily PeraltaMILRSEA78.06.113.461.38.3388.2%6.004.671.74.35953.6%22.6%2.370.3970.408$6100$5800$6300
Hector SantiagoMINLKC134.$8000$5000$5850
Luis CessaNYYRLAA18.25.302.892.41.23610.9%5.305.071.23.21141.9%40.3%1.040.2840.401$6000$4200$5600
Ross DetwilerOAKLCWS16.45.794.151.04.1886.1%5.795.372.84.25052.6%24.6%2.140.2800.337$6100$4300$5800
Jeremy HellicksonPHIRSTL143.07.492.011.26.24312.0%3.653.941.14.27043.0%31.3%1.370.3370.287$7300$7900$6650
Chad KuhlPITRMIA31.16.322.590.86.2568.9%3.734.491.25.28441.5%36.2%1.150.3780.228$6400$6800$6400
Clayton RichardSDLARI20.18.523.980.89.2178.2%$6000$4000$5650
Felix HernandezSEARMIL102.17.743.961.06.21610.3%3.344.211.24.25056.6%23.6%2.400.3190.290$10400$11500$7600
Luke WeaverSTLRPHI4.06.756.752.25.2678.2%4.504.891.75.27363.6%27.3%2.330.3540.433$6000$4100$5800
Aaron SanchezTORRCLE152.17.512.660.59.2298.7%2.843.661.16.27758.3%22.2%2.620.3010.256$8700$7400$7000
Max ScherzerWSHRATL167.211.322.151.34.19416.6%2.952.960.94.24435.9%45.3%0.790.3150.212$11000$13600$8000

Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

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