Drew Pomeranz is a lefty who stand 6’5” and weighs in at 240 lbs. A first round draft pick in 2010, he was taken 5th overall, Pomeranz has struggled to stay healthy over the years. As a result, he has had a lot of troubling producing numbers, or staying on the field long enough for it to matter if I’m being frank. Finally healthy, Drew is on the bump for the Padres and pitching well through three starts. Let’s see what we’ve got with the lefty.
THE NUMBERS - MINORS
| LEVEL | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | IP |
2011 | High-A, AA | 4-3 | 1.78 | 1.05 | 10.6 | 101.0 |
2012 | AA, AAA | 4-4 | 2.31 | 1.52 | 8.9 | 50.2 |
2013 | AA, AAA | 8-2 | 4.65 | 1.40 | 10.0 | 91.0 |
2014 | AAA | 3-1 | 3.69 | 1.34 | 10.5 | 46.1 |
2015 | High-A |
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Career |
| 19-10 | 3.96 | 1.33 | 8.3 | 309.1 |
*2015 he faced six batters over two scoreless innings.
Here are his overall prospect rankings in the past. Pretty high stuff.
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com |
2011 | 61st | 43rd | X |
2012 | 30th | 34th | 24th |
THE NUMBERS - MAJORS
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | IP |
2011 | 2-1 | 5.40 | 1.31 | 6.38 | 18.1 |
2012 | 2-9 | 4.93 | 1.48 | 7.73 | 96.2 |
2013 | 0-4 | 6.23 | 2.03 | 7.89 | 21.2 |
2014 | 5-4 | 2.35 | 1.12 | 8.35 | 69.0 |
2015 | 5-6 | 3.66 | 1.19 | 8.58 | 86.0 |
2016 | 2-1 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 12.74 | 17.2 |
Career | 16-25 | 3.96 | 1.33 | 8.32 | 309.1 |
WORKLOAD
Let’s look at Drew’s workload over the course of the years by combing his minor league and major league innings.
| INNINGS |
2011 | 118.1 |
2012 | 147.1 |
2013 | 112.2 |
2014 | 115.1 |
2015 | 86.0 |
Obviously no seasons of 150 frames on his resume.
He’s been under 120-innings each of the past three years.
The last three years he’s averaged 105 innings pitched.
How many innings will he be allowed to throw this season?
How many frames will he be able to be effective this season?
Keep that in mind.
SKILLS
Pomeranz never is healthy and that makes getting a true read on him difficult.
His major league work includes a mere 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Both those numbers place him on the wrong side of league average, and that’s concerning. Unfortunately for Drew, those numbers are actually better than what he has ever been as a starter. In 110 big league games Drew has started 52 times. In those 52 outings, covering 246.1 innings, Pomeranz has gone 12-21 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers are flat out awful. In fact, check out what Wade Miley did last year (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Anyone excited to add Miley to their staff? Exactly.
As a starting pitcher Pomeranz has averaged 8.0 strikeouts per nine versus 9.4 as a reliever. Pomeranz has jacked that number up to 12.74 per nine this season, but you know that he’s not going to hold on to that mark. No chance. Eight strikeouts per nine is nice, totally can live with that, but Ubaldo Jimenez struck out 8.22 batters per nine last season. Pomeranz also owns a 9.6 swinging strike rate for his career, a league average mark. It was 11 percent last season, but you have to discount some of that given that the majority of his work last season was out of the bullpen (nine starts in 53 appearances). Bottom line is that Pomeranz does not profile as a strikeout per inning arm.
Pomeranz has long had issues with the walk. In the minors the mark is 3.4 batters walked per nine. The mark in the majors is much higher at 3.96. As a starter it’s even worse at 4.20 which is well beyond the danger zone. Only one pitcher in baseball who threw 162 innings last season could match the 3.96 career rate of Pomeranz, and no one could match his career mark as a starter as Trevor Bauer posted a 4.04 walk rate per nine last season. Pomeranz isn’t likely to have long-term success if he issues more than four walks per nine innings. In fact, even with his success this season, Pomeranz is walking 4.58 batters per nine. Atrocious that is.
Pomeranz owns a 1.26 GB/FB ratio for his career. That’s a solid mark, not great, but it works. Check out his career batter ball marks. Slightly better than the league average, ever so slightly.
| Line Drive | Ground Ball | Fly Ball |
Career | 19.9 | 44.7 | 35.4 |
For his career Drew owns an 11.0 HR/FB ratio. The league average is about 10 percent. As a result of all that average his HR/9 mark sits at 0.99, again league average.
As a lefty he’s done pretty darn well against same siders holding lefties to a .232 wOBA. However, he’s struggled against righties a bit allowing them a .334 wOBA. Practically speaking he’s held lefties to a .505 OPS while righties have a mark of .760. That’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.
CONCLUSION
Drew Pomeranz is a solid talent who has been nothing other than league average at the big league level. His pedigree suggests success. Too bad his performance to date hasn’t matched that background. It’s always possible that it all clicks. Hard to see that happening though. Pomeranz can’t stay healthy, walks too many batters and simply put isn’t overly skilled. The start is tempting but don’t make the mistake of overrating what looks like a great run on the surface, a great run of three outings. He’s the last guy on your staff in a mixed league. Go ahead and take a shot if you want, zero issue with that, but be cautious that you don’t drop a more exciting piece to take this shot in the dark.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).