With the baseball season fast approaching and Spring Training upon us, Fantasy owners are beginning to compile their rankings and projections for 2016. Sorting through established players and household names is one thing, but leagues are never won by big-named stars performing at their expected statistics. Instead, crowns are donned by the owners who were able to sift through the first 200 players selected and draft upside “deep sleepers” (ones who are able to greatly outperform their ADP and provide exceptional value to their owners). Which players qualify for that distinction this season? Read on and find out.
Player: Josh Harrison
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 28
Position: 2B/3B/OF
2015 Statistics: .287 AVG / .327 OBP / .717 OPS / 4 HR / 28 RBI / 10 SB in 425 Abs
Current ADP: 204 (Fantasy Pros)
Background
A slow start in April coupled with losing several weeks in the second half of the season when he recovered from left thumb ligament surgery left Harrison’s fantasy owners severely disappointed last season. While he wasn’t able to replicate his breakout 2014 campaign when he batted .315 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases, Harrison did show glimpses of hope at the end of last season which led to his arrival in our “Deep Sleepers” column. When healthy, Harrison is a younger man’s Ben Zobrist – he provides above-average defense at multiple positions (which adds to his value), coupled with providing a moderate amount of power and speed. Now a year removed from signing a $27.3 million contract extension, Harrison is looking for a bounce-back campaign, and can currently be acquired late in the draft.
Positives
1.) Multi-positional eligibility – This is a fairly straightforward benefit for Harrison’s fantasy owners. Although the majority of his starts occurred at third base last season (72), his 37 starts at second base and 22 in the outfield make him extraordinarily versatile, and with that comes value. The Pirates lost several players from last season’s roster, including Aramis Ramirez (retirement), Neil Walker (traded to the New York Mets) and Jung-Ho Kang (recovering from knee surgery). Manager Clint Hurdle will find a way to keep him in the lineup on a daily basis, and barring another popup injury, Harrison will reach the 500 at-bat mark again.
2.) Ability to contribute across the board offensively – Taking small sample sizes into account, the past two seasons Harrison has batted .315 and .287, respectively, over the span of 938 at bats. He is currently in the prime of his career at age 28, and although his power profile suggests that he won’t eclipse the 13 home runs he posted in 2014, his HR/FB ratio that season was only 8 percent, which suggests that it is repeatable, and not a fluke. In the 113 at-bats which Harrison had after his return from thumb surgery last season, he batted .310 with a .366 OBP. His contact rate dramatically improved, and his OPS against right-handed pitching (something which plagued him in the first half of the year) rose by 150 points. Harrison is also currently projected to bat leadoff for the team now that he has returned to full health. This spot in the order will provide him ample opportunities to post career highs in stolen bases and runs scored, which setting the table for sluggers such as Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte.
Negatives
1.) Poor stolen base rate – Ideally owners would prefer to see Harrison steal bases at a higher clip, especially if he ends up being the team’s leadoff hitter in 2016. His career 68 percent success rate is average at best, and needs to be improved upon if he wants to take advantage of the Pirates' run-first mentality (The Pirates lead the league in stolen base attempts per game in 2015 with 1.15, and finished seventh overall with 98 steals). Given that his power upside is capped, a large portion of Harrison’s Fantasy value stems from his ability to get on base and generate the occasional steal.
2.) Jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none – Simply put, Harrison is a very nice player for owners who believe in the “spread the risk” theory of drafting. He is by no means a specialist who will hit either 40 home runs or steal 40 bases, rather he will provide moderate totals across the board in the counting categories. His daily insertion into a Fantasy owner’s lineup will never hurt from an average or runs-scored standpoint, but Harrison’s upside is capped by his physical skillset. Don’t draft Harrison with the expectation of him having a return to glory. Rather, enjoy the fact that he gets lost in the shuffle of the Pirate’s offense and currently presents a discount to his owners.