One of the biggest risks people take in drafting rookies in MLB fantasy drafts is the assumption that players will live up to their potential in their initial season in the big leagues.  Often times rookies with the most hype around them will be over drafted and potentially end up costing you a playoff berth.  There are only a couple of rookies that are probably worth taking a gamble on early in drafts this year and both are expected to start the year in the minor leagues.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays and Eloy Jimenez of the Chicago White Sox are both expected to be called up in mid-April and both will be the top favorites to win rookie of the year.  Guerrero, the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero is the game’s best offensive prospect since Mike Trout and Jimenez is the most likely rookie to belt 25 home runs this year.  There are several other rookies that could impact fantasy this year, but a word of caution not to over draft any of them, rather find the proper place in the back third of drafts.

Here is my breakdown of the top 20 rookies who could make a mark at some point this year.  Keep in mind this is not a top prospect list, rather rookies that I expect will play in the majors this year.

  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B Toronto Blue Jays

Guerrero will be my pick for AL Rookie of they year and will play the entire season at 20 years old.  He has a minor league slash line of .331/.414/.529 after three minor league seasons belting 20 home runs last year at four different levels.  I expect him to be this year’s version of Ronald Acuna of the Braves, and the most impactful rookie in fantasy with instant success.

  1. Eloy Jimenez , OF Chicago White Sox

 Jimenez will be the White Sox long-term solution in left field and his bat like Guerrero’s is already major league ready.  He slashed .337/.384/.577 last year with 22 home runs and 75 runs batted playing in just 108 games. If you’re going to reach for a rookie outfielder in drafts, this is the guy to do it with this year.

  1. Jesus Luzardo, LHP Oakland Athletics

The Athletics showed great discipline in not bringing up Luzardo last September, but they’re prepared to let him compete for a rotation spot in spring training.  Based on their lack of depth of starters at the major league level, it would be a surprise if he didn’t make the team.  Luzardo made 23 starts last year at three different levels finishing with a 2.88 ERA with 129 strikeouts and 30 walks in 109.1 innings pitched.

  1. Forrest Whitley, RHP Houston Astros

Whitley is the best starting pitching prospect in baseball with the potential of developing into an ace.  The problem from a fantasy perspective is that it appears the Astros would prefer him to pitch at least a half the year in the minor leagues. He might not get called up until mid-June to avoid the Super 2 salary arbitration eligibility issue.  However, if I had to predict right now, I would think he’ll end up pitching in a Game 3 scenario in the playoffs behind only Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole . He is that good.

  1. Fernando Tatis Jr. SS San Diego Padres

I had one Padres scout compare Tatis to Manny Machado .  I might not go that far but there is no doubt he’s an elite talent and the Padres won’t be afraid to put the pedal to the medal if they think his bat is ready at any point.  Tatis will arrive with 20 home run power and the ability to get on-base 35% of the time.  He’ll play the entire season at 20-years old and if they give him a chance to play every day in the majors, he most assuredly will be a rookie of the year candidate.

  1. Kyle Tucker, OF Houston Astros

The Astros have refused to put Kyle Tucker in any trade including the Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander deals from the last 18 months. This off-season they said “no” to the Marlins in a possible J.T. Realmuto swap.  Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 23 home runs, 93 runs batted in and 20 stolen bases last year at Triple-A Fresno.  However, he struggled when they called him to the majors hitting just .141 in 72 at-bats.  The Astros signing of free agent outfielder Michael Brantley makes it possible that Tucker is sent back to Triple-A at least to start the year.  However, don’t be surprised if he ends up beating out Josh Reddick for the right field job by the All Star break and if he gets a chance to play he could be a real fantasy factor.

  1. Victor Robles , CF Washington Nationals

Robles will be my pick for rookie of the year in the National League and he could have a strong fantasy impact if given the opportunity to play every day.  Robles profiles as a .300 hitter with potential for 10-12 home runs and 20 stolen bases.  He has been plagued with injuries the last couple of years, but those injuries won’t change his high end potential as a top of the lineup difference maker.  If he’s put in the right part of the Nats lineup, he could score 90 runs this year.

  1. Nick Senzel, 2B/3B/OF Cincinnati Reds

Senzel will be a 20 home run, 80 RBI type player that will also hit for average and is clearly major league ready.  The problem is where do the Reds play him?  They have Scooter Gennett at second, José Peraza at shortstop and Eugenio Suárez at third base.  They could also use him in the outfield, but the Reds just acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp , but it’s still possible they trade Kemp.  Without a starting position it’s difficult to consider drafting him where his talent says he belongs.  The good news is that if the Reds decide to keep him and end up playing him at several positions, his versatility could enhance his fantasy value.  I’ll probably stay away from him though at least until I know he has an every- day job somewhere.

  1. Francisco Mejia , C San Diego Padres

Mejia has struggled in the few opportunities he’s had in the major leagues but most evaluators still think he’ll end up a .280 hitter with 15 home run potential.  The big question is can his defense improve enough for him to eventually win the job from Austin Hedges .  Mejia can also play other positions like third base or left field, so if he can’t win the catchers job he could start somewhere else, but in fantasy he can still qualify for the catching position. He’s definitely one to consider late in drafts especially in two-catcher leagues.

  1. Mike Soroka , RHP Atlanta Braves

Soroka could end up being the best of all the Braves top pitching prospects but he was derailed last summer with a sore right shoulder which is something to watch. Soroka was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts in 2017 and then dominated last year at both Class A and Triple-A when he put up a 1.76 ERA in six starts good enough to get him promoted to the majors.  However, he was bothered by a right shoulder strain, which certainly hurt his velocity and command.  He still ended up with a 3.51 ERA in five starts.

  1. Dylan Cease, RHP Chicago White Sox

It won’t be long before Cease is a part of the White Sox starting rotation and it could happen as early as opening day.  Last year he went 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA with a staggering 160 strikeouts in 124 innings of work where he allowed just 82 hits.  He was acquired by the White Sox with Eloy Jimenez at the trade deadline two years ago for José Quintana .  This looks like one deal that could end up being significantly lopsided in the White Sox favor for a long time. He has a 95-mph fastball with a 12-to-6 curve ball and a developing, but below average change-up.

  1. Danny Jansen , C Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have more catching prospects than anyone in baseball and it appears that Jansen will get the most games at least in 2019.  Jansen slashed .275/.390/.473 with 12 home runs and 58 runs batted in during his stint at Triple-A Buffalo last year before getting promoted to Toronto.  He ended up with a .347 on-base percentage in his 31 games in the majors.  With a thin market of catchers, Jansen could be a smart calculated pick in the right spot.

  1. Peter Alonso, 1B New York Mets

There is no doubt that Alonso has 25-30 home run power and if given 500 at-bats might reach those numbers this year.  However, there is also no doubt that he is a bad defender at first base with a lot of work needed to just become adequate.  It appears new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen will give him every opportunity in spring training to win the job and if he does, he could really help your HR and RBI categories.

  1. Josh James, RHP Houston Astros

James has a 100-mph fastball that he locates perfectly at the top of the strike zone whenever he wants to.  His best secondary pitch is his change-up that has above average deception with late fade.  The key for him will be the development of his slider, which right now is inconsistent.  If the slider arrives then James might end up being the top rookie pitcher in the league.  If it doesn’t arrive, he might just end up somewhere lost in the Astros bullpen.

  1. Justus Sheffield, LHP Seattle Mariners

The Mariners plan on putting Sheffield right into their starting rotation with his 97-mph fastball, power slider and change-up.  His high effort delivery and below average command and control will all have to improve for Sheffield to live up to the Mariners expectations.  The departures of Nelson Cruz , Jean Segura and Robison Cano will lessen the team’s run support and the trade of Edwin Díaz will cost Mariners starters some wins.  I like Sheffield, but I think it will take him a year or two to live up to his promise.

  1. Brendan Rodgers, 2B Colorado Rockies

Rodgers has as much up-side as anyone on this list outside of Guerrero and Jimenez.  The real issue is when will the Rockies give him a chance to be their every day second baseman and will they go with Garrett Hampson ahead of him to start the year.  Rodgers slashed .268/.330/.460 last year with 17 home runs and 67 runs batted in while swiping 12 bases.  However, he still needs some work on plate discipline and needs to learn to take border line pitches and not be afraid to increase his walk totals.  His ceiling is 25-30 homers, but he’s a few years away.

  1. Griffin Canning, RHP Los Angeles Angels

Canning sped through the Angels farm system last year blasting through A-ball, to Double-A, to finally Triple-A.  He started in A-ball and after two starts was immediately put in Double-A where he had a 1.97 ERA in 45.2 innings of work with 49 punchouts over ten starts.  He was then moved to Triple-A where he struggled with a 5.49 ERA, but struck out 64 batters in 59 innings of work.  He is expected to start the year in Triple-A, but is certainly a rookie to watch at mid-season.

  1. Touki Toussaint, RHP Atlanta Braves

The Braves are so loaded with pitching prospects that Toussaint often gets lost in the discussion because of his lack of command and control.  However, his special make-up and competitiveness along with his 94-97 mph fastball going along with an above average curve ball and a split finger change up that’s becoming a weapon make it hard to ignore him. He might be a good late-round dart throw.  Of course all of the Braves pitching prospects including Koby Allard, Bryce Wilson, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright should also be considered along with Soroka and Toussaint.

  1. Dakota Hudson, RHP St. Louis Cardinals

Hudson might not have over powering stuff but what he does have is pitch ability, command and control; a formula that can really work on good teams like the Cardinals.  St. Louis will provide plenty of run support after the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt and they will be much better defensively and have the potential for a deep bullpen.  All of this adds to Hudson following in the foot steps of teammate Miles Mikolas as this year’s version of an under-the-radar late-round shrewd pick-up like Mikolas was last year.

  1. Mitch Keller, RHP Pittsburgh Pirates

Keller has the highest ceiling of any Pirates pitching prospect in their system and could end up being a number two-type starter when he’s fully developed.  Keller dominated at Double-A last year going 9-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 14 starts, but then struggled after being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis where he went 3-2 with a 4.82 ERA in ten starts.  He should start the year in Triple-A and could be ready to help the Pirates and your fantasy team by mid-season.

Our rookie coverage will continue to expand the further we move into spring as paths should either open or close more once the majority of the free agent movement is complete. That’s why it’s the Living Draft Guide!