MLB Streaks & Trends: Bader Cools Off

Who's Hot

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis

Graduating from the migration to the mean listing last week onto the hot list, the second half surge keeps going for Goldschmidt. He's launched eight home runs his last 12 games over two weeks and 50 plate appearances with a .364/.440/.909 line driving in 13 runs and even stealing a base. Of his 38 batted ball events, he's generated nine barrels and 18 hard hits (exit velocity of 95 MPH or better) for a robust 60 percent rate. 

Salvador Perez, Kansas City

After hitting a home run in five straight games, Perez ranks third in the majors in home runs despite catching over 75 percent of his team's games played. He's also set the record for American League catchers with 38 home runs with the caveat of catching this many contests, surpassing 37 by Carlton Fisk. During his last 13 games, Perez hit eight home runs with 16 RBI and produced 10 barrels (most in MLB) along with 20 hard hits (55.6 percent). Those who grabbed him as their catcher in any format continue reaping the rewards. 

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

Perhaps a polarizing player, after many dropped him, Happ's absolutely surged over the last two weeks with seven runs, four home runs, 10 RBI, two stolen bases and a .326/.370/.698 slash line. He's recorded 26 batted balls in this time frame with six barrels (23.1 percent) and 12 hard hits (46.2 percent) on his path back towards fantasy relevance. If he's on your waiver wire, ameliorate this situation and add him immediately. 

Who's Not

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay

Planning on an adjustment period by Arozarena this year made sense. He's still produced eight runs, two home runs, five RBI and a stolen base his last two weeks spanning 39 plate appearances, but scuffling in his average with a .152 mark and a 35.9 strikeout percentage. Preparation for 2022 drafts start in earnest in September and savvy players will track his finish but he may be a hotly debated player for 2022 if he tails off this month. Stay tuned. 

Harrison Bader, St. Louis

Remember when Bader appeared on the hot list? He's regressed since and in the midst of a slump with a .159/.229/.318 slash his last 48 plate appearances with four runs, a home run and three RBI. His defense in center field keeps him in the lineup, but fantasy players should target players with a higher average and better production over the last four weeks of the season. 

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

There's no better story this year in baseball, but Ohtani may be a bit fatigued. Leading the majors with 42 home runs and also recording an 8-1 mark as a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA takes a toll over the 162 game grind required by a major league season. As a hitter, he's struggling of late with a 38.3 strikeout rate his last two weeks and a .132/.298/.289 slash over 47 plate appearances. Keep tabs on his usage and hope he continues producing counting statistics, but with eyes on his strikeout rate. 

Migration to the Mean

Josh Bell, Washington

Figuring out Bell for 2022 comes with trepidation, but if he underwent consolidation of his skills and turning the corner, he may be a worthy late round flier at corner infield. He's accrued 46 plate appearances the last two weeks with a .375/.457/.651 slash and three home runs with nine RBI. Although the power may plateau, he could boost his average in September and if he keeps hitting home runs, giddy up. 

• .254 batting average versus a .270 expected batting average (xBA) - plus 16 points
• .479 slugging percentage versus a .477 expected slugging (xSLG) - minus 2 points
• .339 wOBA versus a .351 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - plus 12 points

Jorge Soler, Atlanta

Not many blinked when Atlanta acquired Soler in a trade with Kansas City, but he may be their replacement as the designated hitter when it begins in the National League in 2022. Over his last two weeks, he's hitting .326/.385/.744 with 10 runs, six home runs and 10 RBI. Then view his expected numbers and realize it may continue, especially in the power department: 

• .213 batting average versus a .240 xBA - plus 27 points
• .418 slugging percentage versus a .483 xSLG - plus 65 points
• .312 wOBA versus a .350 xwOBA - plus 38 points

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

With a projected return this weekend against Baltimore, Torres could attain all his positive migration with production closely resembling his career marks versus Orioles pitching. He did get hit by a pitch his last rehab at-bat, but if he's activated for the stretch run, and with movement towards his actual numbers, he could be a sneaky activation by those with him on their roster. 

• .253 batting average versus a .256 xBA - plus 3 points
• .351 slugging percentage versus a .401 xSLG - plus 50 points
• .302 wOBA versus a .325 xwOBA - plus 23 points

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com