League of Legends Pro League

March 1, 2022 (Starts @ 4 AM ET)

 

(+175) Ultra Prime v JD Gaming (-245)

(+105) Bilibili Gaming v Top Esports (-139) 

 

One surprising result from Monday was the loss by IG to LGD, but this was something I noted was a possibility, and was shocked that we saw IG as highly valued. On Tuesday, we get to see one matchup with two teams in the playoffs and a very real possible matchup we will see in April with BLG and TES. JDG is slightly favored into the underperforming UP side but there is a chance for an upset here, especially with the streaky performances out of Yagao in the mid lane for JDG. Let’s dive in!
 

Series #1:Ultra Prime v JD Gaming

Cann’s Pick:  JD Gaming (2-0)

 

Series #2: Bilibili Gaming v Top Esports

Cann’s Pick: Bilibili Gaming (2-1)


 

Fantasy Value Breakdown
 

Top Plays

Hope (JDG: $11,700/$7,800) The change in JDG’s trajectory is almost entirely from the impact Hope has had to become the starter. If JDG had switched to Hope earlier in the season, he would be your kill leader right now. In his 21 games played (about six less than most other ADCs in the LPL), he has 101 kills and 129 assists. He has a 5.3 KDA and has 30% of all of JDG’s kills. The JDG and UP series is going to be electric and even if UP wins, Hope is going to make them earn it.  

Doggo (BLG: $11,100/$7,400) On a team with both Doggo and Uzi, it appears that BLG is favoring Doggo. He has a four kill and two death average per game and has a 70% team kill ratio. He is facing TES and the high-flying ADC, JackeyLove, which will make for a really tough laning phase. JackeyLove is aggressive and looks for opportunities to get ahead in lane through the 2v2 kill. Doggo is usually very safe in lane and likes to be more reactionary. This will be the matchup of the immovable object bracing for the unstoppable force. 

Kanavi (JDG: $10,800/$7,200) Kanavi has spent his career bouncing between the LCK and the LPL, this being his second stint on JDG. Kanavi has such high production that there may not be another option on this slate for jungle. He has almost 50 more kills (111 in total) than the next-closest jungler, and he's played one less game. His 351 damage per minute is also the highest among junglers, which tells us he loves to fight. His tendency to find himself in the middle of fighting is a good indicator that we can expect higher production compared to the other junglers. 


Value Plays

Bilibili Gaming ($4,600) I am a bit confused on why DraftKings and Bovada both have BLG as dogs here. BLG is on a three-game winning streak and is sitting at a 7-3 series record, compared to 6-4 for TES. BLG has a 17-10 match played record versus the 13-13 record of TES. They have more kills (401 to 330) and the advantage in dragon control (52% to 49%) as well as baron control (56% to 49%). I think this is the more likely 2-0 series for Tuesday.

Elk (UP: $7,200) The kill leader for the LPL is surprisingly Elk. He has 136 kills in 27 games played and 132 assists to go along with that. His 3.6 KDA isn’t super impressive, but his 74% team kill participation rate is. UP has not performed to the level I and many other League of Legends analysts thought they could, but Elk has been a core part of the 4-6 record they have now. If they win on Tuesday, they do slide back up into the playoff picture, so Elk will need to show up big here. 

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic – $50,000 Salary Cap
 

Captain (x1.5): Hope (JDG: $11,700)

Alternate: Elk (UP: $10,800)

Top:Breathe (BLG: $6,000)

Jungle: Kanavi (JDG: $7,200)

Mid: Cryin (UP: $6,800)

ADC: Elk (UP: $7,200)

Support: Crisp (BLG: $5,200)

Alternate: Missing (JDG: $5,800)

Team: Bilibili Gaming ($4,600)