VALORANT Esports DFS Playbook: July 22

Published: Jul 21, 2022

Updated: Jul 21, 2022

Here's some bonus VALORANT content for Friday's playoff slate to hold us over with CS:GO on break :) This event is the first international LAN with a live audience in VALORANT esports history, so it could be a fun slate. Good luck!!! <3 Tony

OpTic Gaming (NA Rank #1) vs. Paper Rex (APAC Rank #1) – 11:00 AM ET

OpTic (-135) | Paper Rex (+105)

OpTic -1.5 (+190) | Paper Rex +1.5 (-265)

This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Upper Bracket Final of VCT Stage 2: Masters Copenhagen playoffs.
OpTic ACS at event: yay 239 | Marved 238 | Victor 211 | crashies 179 | FNS 167
Paper Rex ACS at event: Jinggg 262 | f0rsakeN 252 | mindfreak 230 | d4v41 197 | Benkai 165

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Maps:

OG bans Icebox

PRX bans Split

OG picks Fracture

PRX picks Bind

OG bans Ascent

PRX bans Haven

Breeze remains.

Prediction: Paper Rex wins 2-1.

Optic are the number one ranked team from North America, and they are the favorites here in front of the Copenhagen crowd. Optic have been solid as of late, but their weakness has seemed to be EMEA opponents, having gotten swept by Guild earlier in the month. Meanwhile, Paper Rex (the number one team from the Asia-Pacific region) have been destroying EMEA competition. PRX swept Guild last Thursday, and they followed that up with a sweep against the number one ranked EMEA team, Fnatic, in their most recent match-up. Paper Rex have been dealing with a COVID outbreak within their team, but it hasn’t seemed to affect them all the much.

Paper Rex have a really strong map pool overall. In the past three months, they are undefeated on Bind (8-0 W/L record), Ascent (8-0 W/L record), and Breeze (4-0 W/L record). Optic may look to ban away Bind, but Paper Rex could easily pivot to a map like Ascent. We know that Optic have had plenty of time this week to anti-strat, but Paper Rex are a difficult team to prepare for, and the map pool should still lean in PRX’s favor regardless. I’m not exactly sure why Optic are favored in this spot, so I will happily back Paper Rex as an underdog, though this could certainly be a close series between two great teams.

Mindfreak leads all players at the event with a 1.48 K/D ratio.

Favorite DK Plays:

Fnatic (EMEA Rank #1) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (EMEA Rank #2) – 2:00 PM ET

Fnatic (-165) | FunPlus Phoenix (+125)

Fnatic -1.5 (+165) | FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 (-230)

This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Lower Round 3 of the VCT Stage 2: Masters Copenhagen playoffs.
Fnatic ACS at event: Derke 249 | Alfajer 233 | Boaster 214 | Enzo 176 | Mistic 144
FunPlus Phoenix ACS at event: ardiis 264 | Shao 209 | Zyppan 208 | SUYGETSU 176 | ANGE1 159

H2H Data:

Fnatic has won the past four meetings between these teams, though SEIDER was standing in for SUYGETSU when they met last week. The last match-up between these rosters was a best-of-five back in June and Fnatic won 3-0 (15-13 Split | 13-5 Icebox | 15-13 Haven). Alfajer led the server with 79 kills and 306 ACS across three maps played.

Projected Maps:

Fnatic bans Breeze

FPX bans Icebox/Bind

Fnatic picks Bind/Icebox

FPX picks Ascent

Fnatic bans Split

FPX bans Fracture

Haven remains.

Prediction: Fnatic wins 2-1.

Fnatic have owned this match-up in the past, and I don’t expect that to change on Friday. Sure, FPX have looked better with the return of SUYGETSU, but I’m not sure that their full-strength roster will be enough to get the job done against Fnatic. These are the top two teams in Europe, and Fnatic will look to remain on top. The map veto is interesting here considering FPX have floated through Icebox in the past, despite it being Fnatic’s best map. Fnatic have a 7-0 W/L record on Icebox in the past three months and four of those wins came against FPX. FunPlus Phoenix got off to a 7-2 lead on Icebox last time, but Fnatic managed the comeback with ease as they are just so comfortable on that map. If FPX are willing to play Icebox again, then I expect more of the same, but perhaps they ban it here instead of Bind. Still, Fnatic have won four of their last five on Bind with the only loss coming against Paper Rex, who thrive on that map, so either way, Fnatic should be able to scoop up a win on their own map pick. From there, FPX might decide to pick a map other than Haven considering Fnatic have won the last two meetings on that map. Ascent would be the most logical pick considering FPX have won seven of their last eight on that map, meanwhile Fnatic have a 1-4 W/L record during that same timeframe.

I like Fnatic as the favorite here, but this sets up to be a tight series that can easily go three maps. Ardiis leads the event in terms of ACS, and I wouldn’t completely ignore the side of FPX as a whole. Alfajer looks to be a lot more comfortable than he was at the beginning of his first LAN event, and he will be crucial to Fnatic’s success. Perhaps the young player struggles here in front of a live audience, but we have no idea what to expect with this being the first international LAN with a live audience in VALORANT esports history. Fnatic has proven that they are the better team in the past, and I think they can pick up the win here. However, they are not necessarily a lock despite the odds favoring them, and I would consider light FPX exposure in this spot, especially if FPX change up the map pool from last time.

Derke leads all players at the event with 0.23 opening kills per round.