Below are game breakdowns for each of the three games on Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. Example lineups will be added to this post in the afternoon at least an hour prior to lock.
WAS @ CAR
The home team has yet to lose in this series, and the Caps lead 2-1. The Canes could easily have won every game in this series and probably should have a 2-1 lead if nothing else. Carolina dominated the shot attempt share at even strength in both Games 1 and 3, and they narrowly led in that respect in Game 2, which they lost in overtime. Washington is the only team playing on this slate that was a decidedly below average defensive team in the regular season, so the matchup is a good one for a favored Carolina team that we again expect to win the shot share battle.
With Carolina winning 5-0 in Game 3, you can expect them to try and deploy the same line matchups again tonight. Sebastian Aho’s line was the biggest beneficiary of those matchups primarily facing the Evgeny Kuznetsov line at even and ending the game with an 80.16 percent Corsi For Percentage at 5-on-5 (score and venue adjusted). The entire line plays on the top PP unit and is an excellent stack option, though they could see heavy ownership with the Canes being a home favorite in one of two games with an over/under of six. Aho is priced well on both sites, Teuvo Teravainen is a bit overpriced on both, and Nino Niederreiter is priced better on DK. D-man Justin Faulk plays the most with Aho’s line at even, and he joins them on the top PP unit. Brett Pesce is Faulk’s partner at even, and he’s priced well on FD if you need salary relief.
Despite getting outplayed in Game 1, the Caps won on the strength of a couple of power play goals. Their top unit played more than 70 percent of the PP ice time last game, so that’s where to look if you’re interested in the Caps. Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both play on that top PP unit, and they were the one Washington line that generated more shot attempts than they allowed at even strength last game. They were better with Tom Wilson on the line, but T.J. Oshie was with them toward the end of the game, and he also plays on the top PP unit. John Carlson is the D-man on that top line, and he played plenty with Backstrom’s line at even in Game 3.
Petr Mrazek is one of two goalie options we’re in on tonight, and he’s the cheaper of the two. The Canes are a -115-home favorite, and Mrazek is priced reasonably on both sites. The other goalie, who is to be named later, is preferred, but Mrazek is the play if you can’t afford the preferred option.
STL @ WPG
Despite being the better team in Game 1 and managing to win both of the first two games in St. Louis, the Blues have now been outplayed for three games straight and gave back both road wins with two home losses. The Jets have generated more shot attempts at even strength and more high danger scoring chances, with the gap between the teams widening in each of the last three games.
Winnipeg’s top line got outplayed in their home games but has outplayed the opposition at even strength in the last two games. They’ve played straight up against St. Louis’ top line for most of the series no matter the location, though they didn’t see as much of them in Game 2 when they were Winnipeg’s worst line. Given that the line had four goals in the last two games, we’d expect them to see St. Louis’ top line again. The line is Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor who all play together on the top PP unit as well. The entire line is priced better on DK where they’re a stack option. Dustin Byfuglien is the D-man on the top PP unit, and he skates with that line plenty at even.
If you’re desperate for value, Bryan Little and Nikolaj Ehlers are both priced extremely well on DK. They’re playing together on a line with Patrik Laine, and they work on the second PP unit for the Jets, though that unit is seeing very limited work in the playoffs. Ehlers is also one of the better values of the slate on FD. Tyler Myers is the D-man who plays the most with that line, and he plays on that little-used second PP unit. He is also priced very well on DK (and FD for that matter). Any of the three could be used as one-offs if you’re looking for salary relief at a specific position.
Although the Blues have been on the wrong end of the shot share in the last three games, the line of Jaden Schwartz, Oskar Sundqvist and David Perron has not. That line has generated more shot attempts than they have allowed in three straight games. Perron plays on the top PP unit for the Blues, and Schwartz plays on the second unit. Perron is priced about like he should be on both sites, but Schwartz has value in his price tag on both sites. Colton Parayko played the most with that line in the last game in Winnipeg, and he’s priced well on FD.
Connor Hellebuyck is the goalie mentioned above who is our preferred goalie option today. All three games tonight feature a team that opened as a -125-home favorite. Winnipeg is one of those favorites, but their game has the lowest over/under of the slate at 5.5 goals.
VGK @ SJ
This series has not been like the other two discussed above as the teams have played relatively even at even strength. Each team has won the 5-on-5 shot attempt battle twice (score and venue adjusted), and neither team has dominated possession at even strength to the level in any game like we’ve seen in games in the other two matchups in action tonight. The real difference has been in net where the Sharks have a .845 SV% compared to a .920 SV% for Marc-Andre Fleury. This shouldn’t be much of a surprise given that San Jose had the worst save percentage in the regular season. It confuses why they thought they could do anything in the playoffs with this goaltending situation.
The Sharks are the home favorite here, so they’re an option. The guess is they go back to their “normal” lines after they were jumbled a lot in the last two games in Vegas. That means Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Timo Meier could be together with Couture and Pavelski on the top PP unit. That line was particularly good in the possession area in Game 2, which was the last game played in San Jose. Pavelski is priced quite well on DK, and D-man Brent Burns, who also plays on the top PP unit, is also priced well on DK. Meier is priced very well on FD.
The line of Paul Stastny, Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty figures to be a popular play given that they rank 1-2-3 in the league in points so far in the playoffs. It would be understandable if you wanted exposure to them in cash games, though all three are priced handsomely on both sites.
We’re actually leaning towards Vegas’ other top six line of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith. We want to pick on that terrible San Jose goaltending, and the line should be a nice contrarian play in that solid matchup thanks to the play of Stastny’s line. The Karlsson line is the only Vegas line that has not allowed more shot attempts than it has generated at even strength in all four games. The line stays together on the power play, which adds to their stack appeal. The entire line is priced a hair better on FD than DK, but they could be stacked on either site. Colin Miller played on the power play with that line last game, and he is also priced well on FD.