With the news today that Cam Newton has been released, it’s a clear indicator that the Patriots are done playing 2D checkers and moving back towards 3D chess. Yes, Mac seems to be Cam backwards both in the sense that it’s a half-palindrome and that Cam’s offense provided a two-dimensional, run first approach while Mac Jones has opened the three-dimensional world of a true downfield air attack once again. Let’s take a look at the implications for the rest of the offensive weapons.

Running Backs

This is a boost for ALL of the Patriots running backs. For those unfamiliar, the Patriots have had the same split backfield philosophy going back to when they first started using Bill Belichick and Charlie Weis’s modified version of the Erhardt Perkins system. No Patriots running back in the last 20 years has had 200+ carries and 35+ catches in the same season. The last two to do it were Robert Edwards and Curtis Martin in the 90’s under Pete Carrol. As of now, it looks like Damien Harris will get that early down role and James White will be in his typical third down, pass catching role. Rhamondre Stevenson should be next in line for the early down role with JJ Taylor behind James White, assuming he survives the remaining roster cut downs.

The obvious implication that should jump out to all of us is that Cam Newton will no longer be vulturing red zone touchdowns which means it is wheels up for Damien Harris and possibly even the gigantic rookie Rhamondre Stevenson in the red area of the field. But what folks might not realize is this is also a boon for James White. It seems like common sense to consider that a mobile QB would be more likely to take off and run with the ball on broken plays than to dump it down to the running back but, just to be sure, Andrew Erickson of Pro Football Focus took the time to sit down and prove that mathematically. He essentially shows that mobile QB’s can open lanes for running backs but the lack of targets to the running backs in the passing game equates to fewer overall yards. In PPR leagues, the detriment of mobile QB’s on passing down backs is obvious. Mac should bring a welcome change for James White.

Tight Ends

We took an in depth look at both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in the second part of our Ultimate Tight End Guide. It’s impossible to know what the Patriots are going to do given how notoriously tight-lipped that organization is but here is the bottom line of what was spelled out in full in that article (which I suggest you check out to get the full scoop). Hunter Henry played the fourth-most snaps split out at wide receiver of any tight end last year, running high aDot routes with success against man-to-man. His numbers vs. man as well as the contested catches etc. are all in the linked article. He’s the guy most likely to play the “Gronk” role in that offense, lining up at primary in-line tight end and splitting out wide for third downs and red zone looks. Jonnu Smith with his historic usage and athleticism profiles as more of a “move” tight end who will likely play a role that is a hybrid of what Aaron Hernandez and Martellus Bennett did with the Patriots. He’ll line up as the second tight end but also in the slot, as a winger, and even at fullback (he has rushing touchdowns on his resume). Jonnu Smith is the perfect player for the creative Josh McDaniels to move all over the field.

With Mac Jones at quarterback pushing the ball down field, it is my opinion that Hunter Henry will have the more consistent role in terms of weekly targets and yardage. That would make him the priority add in redraft leagues where you actually choose a tight end to start each week.  Due to the nature of what Jonnu Smith does, using play action and screens to get open in space rather than route running to beat man-to-man, he’s going to have some BIG plays and may even mix in a rushing touchdown. But that may be difficult to predict. That makes him a great option in best ball leagues or even standard scoring leagues but in any sort of managed, PPR leagues, I have more trust that Hunter Henry will be consistent. Again, the Patriots organization is incredibly difficult to predict so all we can do is research the personnel and the history of the offense and make our best guess. With Mac Jones, I like what Hunter Henry offers.

Wide Receivers

This is where any quarterback change will have the biggest impact. Lucky for us, these quarterbacks are different enough that we can at least make a reasonable assessment. Cam Newton after years of wear and tear including a notable shoulder injury, was far more prone to throwing short passes underneath than unleashing the ball downfield as we saw here from Mac Jones.

Given that information, the incumbent target leader Jakobi Meyers probably loses a bit of appeal. First off, one of the biggest selling points was that he’s already played with Cam Newton and has that relationship; that’s obviously out the window. On top of that, we mentioned Mac will be pushing the ball down field and Meyers runs lower aDot routes than some of his counterparts, especially Nelson Agholor whose average depth of target was 15.5 yards last year which was fifth among all wide receivers. That’s likely because Meyers runs a 4.63 forty time which is only in the 21st percentile among wide receivers per PlayerProfiler.com while Agholor runs a 4.42 which is close to the 90th percentile. That speed is also probably why Agholor had a yards after the catch per reception of 5.0 yards last year while Meyers was at 3.8.

All that said, the Patriots will likely be running 12 personnel (two tight end sets) as their primary formation. That means only two wide receivers on the field for most plays. Given the money they paid Agholor, he’s likely to be out there and should be your priority in fantasy with the info we just discussed. The next best fantasy option is whoever wins that other wide receiver role, even if it is a low aDot player like Jakobi Meyers or Kendrick Bourne. Snaps equals targets equals points. N’Keal Harry has been a polarizing player this offseason in that reports were glowing in early camp but as of late he’s struggled to the point he might be on the roster bubble or a trade candidate. After Agholor, he’s the guy with the lowest floor but highest upside given his skill set combined with Mac Jones. He’s currently out nursing an injury that he sustained in the clip above diving for that Mac Jones Bomb.

Isaiah Zuber and Kristian Wilkerson have both been released along with Cam Newton.