UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet, 3/23
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN.
The Main Event features former Strawweight Champion Rose Namajunas in her second fight up in the 125 lb division as she takes on Amanda Ribas. The Co-Main Event features knockout artist Justin Tafa facing off against a powerful wrestler in Karl Williams.
Check out all the latest UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at some of my top UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Ribas vs. Namajunas
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas | 7000/9200 | - | Stackability: Low | 170/ -200 | 380./120. |
Thug Rose makes her return against up-and-coming Amanda Ribas. Rose is taking a major step back in competition here and I think she should be able to dominate this fight. Ribas had her best fights at 115 lbs. and really struggled whenever she tried to move up to 125 lbs., so I expect the same here. Rose stated that her longtime coach Trevor Whitman won't be in her corner for this fight, and she is going to make an announcement after the fight so I'm a little nervous for that means, but I still think she wins here. Rose is the better striker and Ribas has questionable durability so I think as long as Rose doesn't completely freeze up like she did against Esparza that she should win this fight by KO in Round 3/4. For DraftKings Rose has never been a great scorer unless she gets the early finish so I normally wouldn't be too excited to use her here for $9200 but with the fighters priced higher than her being less than -200 favorites she seems like the safest play on the card. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 9100 | AJ Dobson | Somewhat-Safe | -205 | 110. |
Shahbazyan has really fallen in years from being a borderline top 10 fighter taking on Derreck Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Imavov, to being 1-4 in his last five fights. Edmen is still only 26 years old so he has tons of time to improve and this being his second fight after switching to Xtreme Couture with Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis should really start to pay off now. I think Shahbazyan takes Round 1 easily and ends up winning a decision, but my concern is always going to be that he struggles when he gets taken down once he is tired. I'm hoping Edmen comes out with the urgency that made him successful early in his career, and if that is the version that we get he should score well on DraftKings. If he comes out trying to limit himself so he doesn't gas out, I think he scores only around 70-80pts in a decision. | |||||
| Karl Williams | 9300 | Justin Tafa | Somewhat-Safe | -192 | 200. |
| This fight is the opposite of the Nguyen fight. Tafa is a knockout artist, and Williams is going to have the lean on his wrestling if he wants to slow down Tafa, so he has both upside in a decision and in a finish. His ceiling is higher than Nguyen’s, but he is going to be one Tafa bomb away from getting KO'd for at least the first few minutes of the fight. I think he drags this out and finds the stoppage in Round 2. | |||||
| Steven Nguyen | #N/A | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | -192 | 240. |
| It took Nguyen three tries to get a contract on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series and he comes in as the highest priced fighter this week. Nguyen can routinely throw out 100+ significant strikes so he should be able to just out volume Errens in this matchup. He needs to find the knockout to make the optimal lineup here but that probably isn't happening. He seems like one of the safer plays, but I don't think it is a likely outcome that he gets an early KO since Errens has been durable. | |||||
| Ricardo Ramos | 8900 | Julian Erosa | Moderate | -175 | 140. |
| This fight is more about Erosa than Ramos. Erosa has had a weird ride in the UFC where sometimes his chin falls apart after a couple of punches and sometimes, he looks like iron man. Ramos has enough power to KO him, and if this fight hits the ground Ramos should dominate it. While Ramos normally doesn't land much volume, Erosa is going to make him get out of his comfort zone and throw more than he normally would so I'm expecting Ramos to score well even if this goes to decision, but I think eventually Ramos puts Erosa away. | |||||
| Daria Zhelezniakova | 8800 | Montserrat Rendon | Moderate | -225 | 240. |
| Daria is the much better striker, but she looks like a fight out of water once the fight hits the ground. If this stays standing it should just be a brutal battering, and I think Daria is good enough to at least keep it there for most of the fight. Rendon has never been KO'd so I don't want to be too heavily invested on either side at this price, but I do think Daria does enough to win a decision, and she has an outside chance of getting the KO. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Fernando Padilla | 8700 | Luis Pajuelo | Moderate | -170 | 150. |
| This should be a fun fight and I think Padilla is likely to find the KO if he wins. Both of these guys are going to look to stand and trade shots so I'm going to bank on the fighter who has a KO in the UFC already. Padilla was controlled a bit against the cage in his last outing, but I don't think that is something in Pajuelo's playbook. Padilla by KO/ | |||||
| Billy Quarantillo | 8600 | Youssef Zalal | Moderate | -112 | 330. |
| Billy Quarantillo is someone who I always love to back, but he struggles with being outmuscled early in fights. If he survives the early wrestling for Zalal he should be able to up his output later in the fight. BillyQ is always live for the Round 3 finish and when he gets it, they normally come with 100+ strikes landed so they lead to massive scores. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 8200 | Cody Gibson | Somewhat-Risky | -142 | 250. |
| Johns has some decent wrestling, and some pretty good power so he should be able to control this fight from the start. Gibson is durable so he'll need to keep that pace up to win the fight which I'm not sure he can do, but if he does, he is going to score extremely well for his price. | |||||
| Mick Parkin | 8400 | Mohammed Usman | Somewhat-Risky | -142 | 300. |
| I'm not an Usman fan, but they keep giving him these low-level opponents. Both of these heavyweights normally go to decision so this isn't like the Tuivasa vs. Tybura fight last week where someone will score well. Parkin does have better striking I think, and I think he is strong enough to keep this fight off the cage which Usman wants. I think Parkin wins this fight 65% of the time, but even when he does, I'm unsure he gets to the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Kurt Holobaugh | 7700 | Trey Ogden | Somewhat-Risky | 124 | 240. |
| I like Holobaugh a lot this week. Ogden isn't really a finisher, and Holobaugh has seen it all in the octagon. Holobaugh is the more likely of the two to win this fight by KO or Submission, and at $7700 that is more than enough to make it worth playing him. He also throws up a lot of volume if you stand in front of him which helps if this gets to decision. | |||||
| Payton Talbott | 8300 | Cameron Saaiman | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | 240. |
| This fight should be a lot of fun but I'm not confident on either side. Both of these fighters are young with a ton of upside, and I expect them to be in the division for years to come. Both of them have struggled with takedowns, and both of them have shown they can land 100+ significant strikes. I'm more excited to watch this fight than to pick a winner but if I had to, I am picking Talbott to use his size to get it done. | |||||
| Cody Gibson | 8000 | Miles Johns | Risky | 120 | 425. |
| Gibson has the reach advantage and should be able to put out enough volume through his jab to keep this fight close, but I'm nervous of his finishing ability. He's +425 to get the finish and I think that is a fair price, which isn't something that I like on this card when almost everyone else in the mid-range has a better chance of winning inside the distance. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Julian Erosa | 7300 | Ricardo Ramos | Somewhat-Risky | 145 | 225. |
| Erosa has been KO'd in the first round in back-to-back fights, but before that he was landing 100+ strikes and multiple takedowns for the handful of fights before that. At his best he out volumes Ramos and scores really well, at his worst he gets KO'd in the first few minutes. This is a high-risk high reward tournament play. | |||||
| Youssef Zalal | 7600 | Billy Quarantillo | Somewhat-Risky | -108 | 500. |
| Zalal never puts out much volume, but BillyQ is going to force him to. He is the better wrestler and has been in there with the higher level of competition so this fight being a near pick'em is fair. Zalal has never scored well on DraftKings, but I think BillyQ may force him to do more than he is used to. | |||||
| Luis Pajuelo | 7500 | Fernando Padilla | Risky | 142 | 300. |
| His chin is solid, his cardio is good, and his striking is nearly as good as Padilla's. This should be a close fight between two guys who have never been KO'd or submitted so it may be extremely entertaining, but if no one gets KO'd it might not score well. I'm backing Pajuelo as the dog. | |||||
| Igor Severino | 7200 | Andre Lima | Risky | 150 | 275. |
| The amount of volume Severino put up on the Contender Series was absolutely absurd and if he can get anywhere close to that pace going against Lima, he may break the slate. He showed he has power for a flyweight, he showed he can mix in takedowns, and landed 75 strikes in less than two full rounds. Both of these fighters are undefeated but from the limited tape I could find, I think Severino is the more well-rounded fighter. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 6900 | Karl Williams | Risky | 160 | 200. |
| He has the power to KO anyone in the division, if he lands an early overhand, he can KO Williams. He isn't technical, and doesn't have any wrestling, so it's the definition of a punchers chance. | |||||
| Jarno Errens | 6800 | Steven Nguyen | Risky | 160 | 330. |
| Errens has some power, but he is too easy to takedown and doesn't do much with volume. He is +160 and the cheapest fighter on the card so this is a bizarre slate, and it makes him playable. I don't think he wins the fight, but at his price and odds I can't fault anyone for playing someone who has power facing someone who needed three contender series fights to get a UFC contract. | |||||
| AJ Dobson | 7100 | Edmen Shahbazyan | Risky | 170 | 425. |
| Dobson is going to need takedowns to win this fight, but it is a tough ask for him. Edmen moves extremely well and when he is fresh this should be one-way traffic. If Edmen's cardio drops off of a cliff there is a chance he can find the late finish, but he'll need to really push a pace which isn't something we have seen. | |||||
| Montserrat Rendon | 7400 | Daria Zhelezniakova | Risky | 185 | +1,100 |
| She has muscle, and a wrestling advantage but she hasn't even been dominant on the regional scenes. She is miles behind on the feet and is one of the bigger underdogs for a salary of $7400. I don't think she gets much ownership, and she'll need a very specific outcome of multiple takedowns, winning a decision, and having others priced around her lose to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Ribas, Saaiman, Erosa, Zalal, Severino
Ribas vs. Namajunas UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats
Amanda Ribas | vs. | Rose Namajunas |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Karl Williams | vs. | Justin Tafa |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Edmen Shahbazyan | vs. | AJ Dobson |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) |
10 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
Payton Talbott | vs. | Cameron Saaiman |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs. | Youssef Zalal |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
-112 | Vegas Odds | -108 |
0 | ||
Fernando Padilla | vs. | Luis Pajuelo |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | 142 |
Kurt Holobaugh | vs. | Trey Ogden |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-6-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
124 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
Ricardo Ramos | vs. | Julian Erosa |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 28-12-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 12 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 145 |
Miles Johns | vs. | Cody Gibson |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Jarno Errens | vs. | Steven Nguyen |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
160 | Vegas Odds | -192 |
Montserrat Rendon | vs. | Daria Zhelezniakova |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Igor Severino | vs. | Andre Lima |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Mohammed Usman | vs. | Mick Parkin |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
120 | Vegas Odds | -142 |