UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: Cannonier vs. Imavov Cheat Sheet

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov takes place this Saturday live from The KFC Yum Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00PM EST on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:00PM EST.

The main event this week features a clash between two top middleweights as Jared Cannonier takes on Nassourdine Imavov in what should be a high-level striking battle. Cannonier is looking to regain his place at the top of the rankings after an action-packed fight against Marvin Vettori last year. 

The co-main event features the man who came closest to beating Jon Jones in Dom Reyes as he takes on talented kickboxer Dustin Jacoby. Check out all of my top UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and, as always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Good luck with your UFC daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Cannonier vs. Imavov

Main Event

Cannonier is one of the most interesting fighters in the UFC as he started his career all the way up at Heavyweight before eventually finding a home in the Middleweight Division and he's fought just about every top contender and champion during his career. Imavov is only 29 years old and still improving and coming into his own. Cannonier is unusual for the weight class as he can put up a ton of volume to go along with his power but having just turned 40 eventually, he'll start to slow down. I think Cannonier still has enough in the tank to get it done especially as he's mixed in his wrestling recently. The winner of this fight probably needs to land 150 significant strikes in a decision so I think whoever wins scores at least 90+ points and at their prices that could be enough to get to the optimal lineup.

Expensive Fighters

If you want a fighter who is the "safest" play, it’s probably Katona, but he has made a career out of putting up lackluster scores on DK. He's better everywhere and I expect him to get a few takedowns and a bunch of control time, but at $9600 he needs to put up 110+ points to hit the optimal lineup and that could be tough for him to get to. 

Ferreira is the highest upside play on the slate as he is +150 to win in Round 1, but he does fall off a cliff after about 7 minutes so if he doesn't get this done early, he probably loses the fight. He is a great GPP play as his ceiling is a KO within the first minute, but if this gets out of the first round, he probably won't pay off his price.

Rosas has put on strong grappling performances early on in all of his fights so he has the upside that we need to win a tournament, and I think he can outlast Turcios if he needs to. Rosas is +150 to win inside the distance, and I think even in a decision win he has the ability to score 100+ points so he is one of my favorite fighters on the slate.

Tomar is a complete unknown as she comes in off of the Indian regional scene as her level of competition hasn't been great. Dos Santos (Amanda on some sites) has way better submission skills and I expect her to use them here as Tomar was subbed in 3 of her 4 pro losses. She has better odds to win than almost anyone on the slate and if she does control this fight and finds a late second round submission, she could put up a ton of points.

Moura is another one of these high-priced favorites who is the far superior grappler. Gomes is undersized and has lackluster takedown defense, so I see Moura getting this fight where she wants it. Grappling is the way to score on DK, especially in these weight classes where a finish is unlikely. Moura should be able to rack up control time, takedowns, and do enough on the ground to score well.

Mid-Range Fighters

Baeza is coming off of a long layoff, but Soriano is someone who has made a career of struggling against grapplers and fading late. Baeza is coming off of a terrible loss to Andre Fialho so anything can be expected in the first five minutes here but after that I think Baeza really takes over and finds the late finish.

This fight is going to end inside the distance but it's tough to trust either side. Reese was just KO'd in the first-round vs. Cody Brundage which is a terrible look, so I'll trust Marquez as he takes a step back in competition. Reese has only had one fight go longer than two minutes, so his gas tank is a complete unknown at this point. I think Marquez gets an early takedown, drowns him in deep water and finds the eventual submission.

Klein is looking like an absolute specimen recently, so I expect him to have a huge strength advantage over Moises and he'll likely need it to keep the fight standing. Moises has superior grappling skills but Klein isn't a bad grappler by any stretch so he may opt to wrestle to put a stamp on rounds, but for the most part I think Klein keeps it standing which could be bad for DK scoring. If this is a boxing match it's going to be boxing and slow paced as Moises does almost no striking at all.

Lee is the more well-rounded fighter in this rematch from five years ago, and I think she'll be able to have the same gameplan. De La Rosa is definitely a better striker than when these two first met, but Lee has also made improvements grappling. I think De La Rosa is able to get some takedowns, but she won't be able to hold Lee down for too long. On the feet Lee should be able to out-strike her and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee land 80-100 significant strikes to go along with a couple of takedowns. This fight likely doesn't finish but if someone does get finished its probably Lee who gets her hand raised.

Marcos can put up good volume and as the small favorite, priced as an underdog he should get a bunch of ownership. I don't really have much confidence in either side in this fight, but both of these fighters throw good volume and I'm expecting them to trade strikes. My only concern is sometimes Castaneda does wrestle and if he controls Marcos for any prolonged period of time it'll really cap how well he can score.

Castaneda has multiple takedowns in his last few fights and has a ton of knockdowns on his UFC stats sheet although he hasn't been lucky enough to finish most of those fights. With the takedown and knockdown upside, he probably has the higher ceiling this week and likely comes in lower owned than Marcos. He's a great GPP play.

De La Rosa has the takedown upside here so if she does win, she probably needs to get 3+ takedowns to secure it, and while I think she can do that she really hasn’t been using her grappling lately which is bizarre since it is her strongest part of her game. If she doesn't wrestle, I expect her to get destroyed but at her price if she does win, she should be scoring 85+ points.

Paydown Fighters

He has the highest upside of the underdogs outside of the main event, and while I don't think he wins this fight, if he does win it, he's scoring well because it's going to be by early finish.

I didn't like how Prates looked in his first UFC fight as he was getting out struck before he landed a second round KO. I think Radtke is a better wrestler, and while his striking isn't more technical than Prates or more powerful, I do think he's more willing to take chances to land. I hope Radtke sticks to wrestling here but even if he doesn't, as long as he avoids a big strike he can win a decision.

Gomes is the better striker, but she is going to struggle to keep it standing. At her price, having a pretty clear advantage in one area of the fight is enough for me to play her. I don't think she has the highest upside but at her price she should be able to pay it off in a win.

Man, how Dominck Reyes has fallen. From going toe to toe with Jon Jones and almost inching out a decision to now facing Dustin Jacoby. Reyes had some much-needed time off and I think he should be able to win this fight as Jacoby is more of a point fighter. Reyes has more power and a wrestling advantage so if he wants to get this fight to the ground, he should be able to. I like Reyes to win here and get back on track to rejoin the top 15.

I like Stoltzfus a lot this week. Ferreira is going to be gassed after Round 1 so he just needs to survive five minutes and then should be able to take over the fight. I don't have much confidence early on but a second or third round stoppage is in play here and if Stoltzfus gets any type of win he likely is on the optimal lineup.

Stamann is the better wrestler, but Lapilus is way ahead on the feet. Lapilus' last few opponents have just spammed takedowns against him and Stamann needs to do that here if he wants to win, but even though he has a wrestling background he rarely just relies on it to get him wins.

Turcios has had fights where he throws up a ton of volume and looks like he is great for DraftKings, and also had some fights where he essentially starred at his opponent throwing airstrikes and landed absolutely nothing. Luckily for him Rosas comes forward so this should be an action-packed fight. I don't think Turcios is skilled enough to win this but if Rosas does gas out, he should have a chance later on in the fight.

Katona is always involved in decisions, so all it takes is for a close fight to occur and two of the three judges to see the fight for Butler. With Katona not being much of a finisher, I think Butler is more in play than most +500 fighters normally would be.

Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

• Cannonier, Stoltzfus, Reyes, Soriano, Reese

Cannonier vs. Imavov UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats