UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 takes place this Saturday live from Las Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+ followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+ and finally Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00PM EST.  

The card is headlined by a short notice title rematch as Alex Pereira looks to continue his reign over the Light Heavyweight division. Jiri is going to bring the action right from the bell as he loves to march forward and control the pace of his fights. The co-main event features former title challenger Brian Ortega taking on submission specialist Diego Lopes in a fight that could fast one of these two into title contention.

Check out all the latest UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC 303 DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 303, Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

Main Event

While most people are disappointed in the McGregor vs. Chandler fight getting cancelled, I think at this point in their careers this is a better fight. This is going to be edge of your seat tension from the start of the fight as Jiri is always moving forward and Alex is always one left hand away from ending the fight. I think I'm leaning towards Jiri in this spot as I believe he is the more prepared fighter this time around as Alex seemed to be enjoying life before getting the call to save the card. Both are great DK plays, but Jiri is a near lock to hit the optimal if he wins, where Alex is closer to 50/50 if he wins a low volume fight by KO (he didn't break 100pts in a 2nd round KO last time). I'm picking Jiri to win and will probably have him in 50% of my lineups with Alex in around 30% of my lineups.

Expensive Fighters

He's nearly the biggest favorite in UFC history so even at $9800 you have to consider him. I don't think he gets the Round 1 finish, but even if this gets to Round 2, I expect Talbott to be landing at such a high rate that he can score 100+ points. The only concern with picking Talbott is that we have fighters who are close to -500 for $500 less so there is a chance that he wins, scores the most on the slate, and still doesn't hit the optimal lineup. He's the cash game safe play and live for GPPs but I'm not going 100%.

Rei knows he's a wrestler and doesn't waste any time trying for takedowns. Eventually he is going to get exposed when he can't get a takedown, but I don't think that is this week. Even in a decision win he probably scores a ton of points with his wrestling, so he has a really high ceiling.

Joe Pyfer had a tough time out last fight, but it was a five round main event and if it was only three rounds, he probably would have won it. He is the much better wrestler in this matchup so hopefully he uses that to his advantage. He should be able to win this fight anywhere it goes, but he has a much tougher matchup than some of the other high-priced fighters so I can't move him above Rei or Payton.

I absolutely hate Andrei Arlovs.ki fights because he has a way of getting his opponents to just stare at him and fight a slow-paced fight. Buday should be able to dominate this matchup if he fights smart, and I'm considering betting Buday by submission at pretty big odds as I think he gets one here.

Simon should be able to control the pace of this fight, but Oliveira is a dog who is going to keep coming forward, so he'll have to get his respect or take him down to win this fight. Simon has shown some chin concerns, but this is a major stepdown in competition for him, so I think he makes a statement here.

Mid-Range Fighters

Almost every favorite in the mid-range this week has a major red flag, so I'm going to go with upside plays. I actually have a bet on Swanson already this week as I think the line is too wide, but if Fili wins this fight, I think it is by first round KO. Fili hits hard and Cub is now 40 years old, so I think he likely finds Cub's chin early on and scores massively. If he doesn't get the first round KO, I have a concern that he doesn't gas out and end up losing later on. I think this line should be closer to a -150 for Fili, but his ceiling is too high to ignore. 

Robertson is +180 to win inside the distance, and honestly, I think if she doesn't get a submission here, she probably loses the fight. I would much rather anyone from the Main Event over Robertson, but if she wins this fight, it is probably by first or second round submission. 

Dolidze has the power to end this fight early and although he is moving up to 205lbs on short notice, he has fought at this weight in the UFC before, so I'm not overly concerned. I think he ends Anthony Smith early here, but if this gets out of the first, I'm nervous that he can keep up with Smith because if Smith is anything, it's that he is willing to go into the deep water to get a win.

I think this fight probably ends with someone scoring well, but I'm not confident either way. Lopes has seemed comfortable fighting off of his back in the UFC so far and that is a major red flag for me on DK. With the way control time is scored, and DK only awarding significant strikes to the fighter on top it is hard to score well off your back. I'm not overly confident in Ortega here, but as an underdog and having been in there with arguably the two greatest 145lb fighters of all time, I think he has enough to get it done here.

Silva is priced at $8800 and is only -108 so she isn't going to be owned at all. If Silva wins this, I expect it to be by submission, but it’s tough to click her name when she is priced right under a -250 favorite in Ricky Simon. Strictly a play if you want to get a unique lineup in a big field contest.

I've been backing these guys out of "The Fighting Nerds" and it has worked well. Silva has more power, if someone gets a takedown it is probably Silva, so in DK terms I think there is only one side of this fight that I want. It's a coinflip of a fight so taking the underdog who has better finishing ability is an easy click if you find yourself looking for a mid-priced underdog.

Page is so crafty with his footwork so if there isn't a finish in this fight, I don't think it scores well. If someone gets a KO, I think it is Garry, so I'll be leaning that way, but I won't end up with much of this fight since there is little takedown upside, and I'd be surprised if anyone landed 100+ strikes in a decision.

Paydown Fighters

She is the clear odds value on the card and at $7400 she fits any lineup build. She is a cash game lock and I expect her to be 40% owned. She is one of the easier fades if you are trying to make a unique lineup as even in a win, she may only score 70pts.

I like Swanson in this spot, even though I think he is going to retire. He is the longer fighter, and if he can avoid Fili's power early, he can turn it on late in the fight. In a decision win it'll be tough for him to really score well as I don't think he'll go for more than a few takedowns, but he is live for a late KO and if he can get that he'll be the piece you need to win money on Saturday night.

He is aggressive and is going to need to make the most of the time that this fight spends on its feet, so I think he is going to be even more aggressive than he was in his debut. He is giving a lot up on the ground, so I expect him to either get the KO or the get dominated over 15 minutes.

He has the superior volume but is giving up a lot in power and wrestling. He is going to struggle early but we have seen Pyfer struggle the later fights go so if he can survive the early portion of it, he can win this fight later.

Hernandez is the rightful underdog but Rei is extremely young so I wouldn't be shocked if he got a lesson against a veteran in this fight. Hernandez is the better striker, and his scrambling is decent so maybe he can keep it on the feet but I'm not sure this will stay standing long enough for him to win. At his price he is a fair play, but I don't want to go overweight on him.

She can win this fight with her clear striking advantage, but she probably is going to just run around the cage and try to keep this fight off the ground. She probably scores 70-75 in a win so unless she is the only dog to win, she probably won't hit the optimal lineup.

It's a heavyweight fight but I don't want to back a 45-year-old Andrei here and he is giving up about 20lbs to Buday as well. Unlike most heavyweight fights, I actually don't see Arlovs.ki having quick finishing upside, but at $7100 a win might be enough to hit the optimal.

He's one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history but at this price he might be worth a shot. Talbott is still young, so while I think Talbott wins this fight, there is no way a kid with less than ten professional fights should be this big of a favorite. If you play 20 lineups and play him in 1 of them, you may be overweight to how much the field plays.

Sample UFC 303 DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

• Jiri, Ortega, Chiasson (pick’em), Silva, Swanson

Pereira vs. Prochazka UFC 303 Picks & Stats