UFC 302 DFS Picks & MMA Playbook - Makhachev vs. Poirier Cheat Sheet

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier takes place this Saturday live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00PM EST. 

The main event this week features a clash between two of the best lightweights of all time as Islam Makhachev looks to extend his reign over the 155 lb division. Dustin Poirier will be trying to make one last run at the title as he gets another opportunity to win the undisputed title. Poirier has hinted that a loss here could force him to retire, so expect him to come out early and try to make a statement. 

The co-main event features former Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland taking on Paulo Costa in a battle of two of the highest volume fighters in the division. Check out all the latest UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. 

As always, feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC 302 DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 302, Makhachev vs. Poirier

Main Event

A clash of two of the best lightweights of all time between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier highlights this card. Islam is a huge favorite for a reason as his wrestling is next level, and he has proven to be highly durable. Poirier really struggles to stop takedowns on anyone with high level wrestling so I expect this fight to hit the ground early and often, but while it is on the feet I would lean towards Dustin.

With Islam being the highest priced fighter on the slate I won't be all-in on this fight, but it is very likely that if he wins, he will score 100+ but sometimes that isn't enough at this high of a salary. 

Expensive Fighters

I'd rather stack this five round fight compared to the main event. Strickland isn't a power puncher so I expect this fight to go to decision if he wins, but he routinely puts up 150-200 significant strikes in 5 round fights so even with no knockdowns or takedowns he has a floor around 90 in a decision win and at $8800 that could be enough.

Hafez is better in just about every aspect than Gall, but I think he is going to wrestle here. Hafez already has a victory over Gall in a Jiu Jitsu match so he should be confident enough to go to the ground. Hafez is only 8-4 in his MMA career so there is some concern as he does lose a lot of close decisions, but I don't think this fight gets that far.

Almeida really gassed out in his last fight against Blaydes, but getting takedowns on Blaydes shows that he can get them on anyone in the UFC. Luckily for him in this matchup Romanov isn't someone who has the same cardio as Blaydes so if it is a high paced first round Romanov may be more tired than he is. 

His path to victory even in a decision is going to be a ton of takedowns and control time. The only reason I don't have him ranked higher is because I'm not sure if he can get a quick finish, and if he doesn't get takedowns, he isn't going to land much volume.

Dawson is a massive favorite, but he isn't a potent finisher. He is going to look to wrestle, and while Solecki has slick submissions, I think Dawson can stay out of trouble if he stays on top. For me there is a clear step down in terms of ceiling between the three listed above him and Dawson.

Holland has never been someone who scores great on DraftKings, but he has all of the skills to dominate this fight. Facing someone who starts strong makes it tough for Holland to score really high, but he could run away with this in late Round 2 and if he uses his wrestling where he has a clear advantage, he should be able to dominate and rack up points.

Mid-Range Fighters

I don't love the mid-range this week so I'm going with the underdog value pick. Almeida has high level striking, and even holds a win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing so with this fight taking place on the feet I think he has the advantage. He's probably the better wrestler as well so anywhere this fight goes, he should be able to hold his own. 

Rowe has the reach advantage, and probably the crisper striking as well. Rowe doesn't have great takedown defense, but he does have decent submission skills so even if he gets taken down, I think he'll be able to get back to his feet or threaten a submission. This is a close fight but I'm leaning on Rowe winning it.

Perez at her best is someone who can land 5+ takedowns in a fight but she really doesn't offer much else. Edwards has historically been bad at stopping takedowns so with Perez averaging 4+ per fight in the UFC it wouldn't be surprising to see her score 100+ if this goes 15 minutes. There is also some bad blood in this matchup as Perez's coach apparently choked Edwards unconscious in training so I'm expecting this fight to have a little extra intensity.

Lima missed weight by 5lbs, and I already expected him to be the bigger of the two, so he probably has a clear physical advantage early in this fight. Raposo was on "The Ultimate Fighter" when he was only 21 years old, and it was up weight class so he should look like a completely different fighter here, but I do think if one of these two are putting up a massive score it'll be Lima.

Raposo is the better wrestler in this matchup, and I think he has the better cardio as well. He is going to be giving up some strength, but I think he should have success the later the fight goes. He likely doesn't get a win inside the distance, but with his wrestling ability 80-90 pts in a decision win could be a possibility.

Matthews at his best is able to get this fight to the ground, control Rowe and rack up a ton of control time. My issue with Matthews is he is extremely low volume striking, so unless he gets a finish, he probably won't hit the optimal lineup.

Randy Brown is well rounded, but both of these fighters have proven to be durable, so I don't think either one of them gets a KO. Brown is younger and is the more likely to wrestle so I'm going to lean towards him getting it done. 

Paydown Fighters

Costa is going to be in a five round co-main event so his floor even in a decision loss is probably around 50pts. I think Strickland wins this fight with superior volume, but Costa does have power that could be an equalizer. If there is one fight that I'm looking to stack up in cash games, it's this one. I'm going to have close to 100% of this fight in my DK lineups so I'll be overweight to both sides.

I think Edwards actually wins this fight, but she doesn't have the same upside as Perez. Her wrestling game has improved recently but I still think she is way behind Perez in that aspect. She should be able to control distance and have advantages on the feet, so I think she is one of the more likely underdogs to win, but she doesn't have the same upside of some of the other fighters in this range.

Price is a kill or be killed type of fighter so I think this fight should be exciting for as long as it lasts. Morono is more technical, but Price has the power advantage, he is more likely to score 100+ than Edwards due to his KO upside, but he isn't as likely to win the fight.

Romanov has dominated the first round in almost all of his fights, but this is a tough task against Almeida. He is going to have a massive size advantage, but his cardio is pretty lackluster. Unless he gets an early takedown, he probably fades the later this fight goes. He is a high-ceiling, low-floor play.

Mikey O always has a good first few minutes of his fights, but Holland is a crafty veteran with great durability so I'm expecting this to be a tough night for him. He's similar to Romanov where if he wins it's probably in the first five minutes so his ceiling is very high, but more than likely he gets dragged into deep waters and Holland finishes him in the later rounds.

Last time we saw Dawson he was getting KO'd in under a minute against Bobby Green which is a pretty big red flag, but Solecki doesn't have much power, so I don't think that'll come into play for this fight. Solecki does have slick submission skills so he could latch onto something, but I think his most likely path to victory is to take Dawson's back and control him. Both of these fighters have never crossed 60 significant strikes so if this goes to a decision, he probably won't score very well but at $6900 any win could get you to the optimal lineup.

I'm basically writing off Gall this week, and while that could be a mistake since Hafez isn't very experienced, I do think that Gall's time in the UFC is over. His best skills are his submission attempts but Hafez has proven to be an equal or better grappler than him so I don't think that will matter. On the feet Hafez has power, even if it isn't the prettiest striking, so I think Gall will struggle anywhere this fight goes.

Sample UFC 302 DFS Lineup 

Live Dogs

Poirier, Costa, Edwards, Almeida, Rowe

Makhachev vs. Poirier UFC 302 Picks & Stats