MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Luque vs Dos Anjos Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos headlines our MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings this weekend. The UFC fight card kicks off from the UFC APEX with the Prelims at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7:00 PM ET. Fan favorite Vincente Luque faces former 155 lb champion Rafael Dos Anjos in an action-packed main event fight. With both men looking to get back into the win column after tough losses, there should be fireworks as they look to make a statement and move up the UFC rankings. The co-main event this weekend features veteran Cub Swanson looking to get back on track against “Mean” Hakeem Dawodu.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Vicente Luque vs Rafael Dos Anjos | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Low | +100/-120 | +165/+275 |
| The main event this week features fan favorite Vincente "The Silent Assassin" Luque against former 155lb champion RDA in what should be a back-and-forth contest. This fight takes place at 170lbs which is key because RDA has routinely struggled when moving up to that division, albeit against Leon Edwards, Colby Covington, and Kamaru Usman. Luque should have a speed advantage here but coming off of a long layoff due to "Brain Bleeding" in his loss to Geoff Neal it's hard to say what version of him comes to fight Saturday night. RDA has been using his wrestling more and more of late, so I expect him to push that here, and while Luque usually gets taken down fairly easily he has a dangerous submission game, and he normally gets up when taken down. I'm going to be leaning towards RDA to win a decision, but I'll be playing both of these guys across my lineups as Luque's path to victory is likely a KO and if RDA wins, he should score 3+ takedowns. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marcus McGhee | 9600 | JP Buys | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | -200 |
| McGhee is relatively green in MMA, but he is 30+ years old so don't get him confused for any young up and coming prospect. Luckily for him he steps in against one of the least durable fighters on the UFC roster in JP Buys. Buys has been knocked down 5 times through 3 UFC fights and I expect him to get knocked down at least once in this upcoming matchup. McGhee should be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate for good reason. | |||||
| Terrance McKinney | 9200 | Mike Breeden | Somewhat-Safe | -278 | -250 |
| McKinney is coming in on short notice after losing only a few weeks ago, but he takes a major step back in competition here. McKinney is well rounded as he has both power in his hands, and great offensive wrestling but the problem is these skills only last for about 3 minutes before he gasses out. McKinney most likely scores 100+ in a win, but if he can't get it done in the first round there is a good chance he gasses out and gets KO'd in the 2nd or 3rd round by Breeden. He should be the highest owned fighter on the slate at only $9200 while having the biggest inside the distance line. | |||||
| Jaqueline Amorim | 9100 | Montserrat Conejo | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -150 |
| Amorim has great submission skills and pretty good wrestling, but she too needs to win this fight early. Amorim was in cruise control in her UFC debut, but after being unsuccessful in getting the submission in the first round against Sam Hughes she completely gassed out and faded in the later rounds. I'll be betting Amorim by submission in R1, but I have no confidence in her ability to keep up any sort of pace which is a huge red flag in the woman's 115lb division where all of these fighters have great cardio. | |||||
| Josh Fremd | 9400 | Jamie Pickett | Moderate | -355 | -135 |
| I don't want to trust Fremd in this matchup, but I think he uses his wrestling and should have skill advantages everywhere over Pickett. Pickett normally slows the pace of the fight down which is terrible for a fighter priced at $9400 so I have concerns that the winner of this fight won't score well, but I think Fremd makes a great contrarian play off of McKinney and McGhee if you are looking to get a little different in your lineup. | |||||
| Hakeem Dawodu | 9000 | Cub Swanson | Moderate | -225 | +140 |
| Dawodu looked career worst last time out so let's hope that was a one-time issue. Swanson is well past his prime and has been hurt to the body frequently in recent fights. Dawodu should be landing the more impactful shots in this fight, but he really doesn't offer much volume or wrestling upside, so he needs to win this fight early to score with the other fighters priced in this range. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8900 | Chris Daukaus | Moderate | -175 | -150 |
| The mid-range this week has a ton of question marks, so I'll start with someone who we know a little bit more about. Rountree has powerful striking and at his best can win this fight with only a few kicks, but sometimes he comes out a little hesitant. Daukaus is moving down from heavyweight to light heavyweight for this fight, and while that should help him make up for the power disadvantage he had earlier in his career, he's going to likely be giving up speed in this matchup. Daukaus has never seen a third round in the UFC, and his wrestling which could be the equalizer in this matchup is rarely used by him. I think Rountree finds the KO in late round 2 after Daukaus gasses out | |||||
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 8600 | Jose Johnson | Moderate | -265 | +120 |
| Blackshear has had a tough run in the UFC, but he has shown he can compete at this level and when at his best can land a lot of volume. Johnson has terrible takedown defense so Blackshear could break the slate with his wrestling in this matchup. At almost -300 and only $8600 Blackshear would normally be the chalk of the slate, but for some reason, it seems like he isn't getting much love. | |||||
| Francis Marshall | 8500 | Isaac Dulgarian | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | +130 |
| Dulgarian is a good wrestler and is strong, but he really hasn't shown enough for me to be scared for Marshall in this matchup. Marshall just suffered his first career loss, but at his age, I think it's a positive for him to have to go through a three-round war. Marshall at his best lands a few takedowns and lands close to 100ss even in a decision so he is one of the "safer" plays if the fight goes to a decision, but Blackshear is clearly the better play as a much bigger favorite and only $100 more. | |||||
| Martin Buday | 8800 | Josh Parisian | Somewhat-Risky | -198 | +175 |
| Buday is one of the rare heavyweights that goes to decision more often than his fights ending early, but at some point, one will end early. Buday probably out-volumes him and scores somewhere around 85, but unless he finds a KO, he probably won't hit the optimal lineup. At +175 to win inside the distance I'd only play him in 1 or 2 lineups if I was playing 10. | |||||
| Iasmin Lucindo | 8700 | Polyana Viana | Somewhat-Risky | -198 | +300 |
| Lucindo is sitting at nearly a 2 to 1 favorite, and she should be able to win this fight especially if she keeps it standing. Viana has some tricky submission skills, but the majority of those finishes have come against the lowest level of UFC competition. Lucindo is likely the lowest-owned fighter in the high 8k price range, but it is for good reason as she likely doesn't find a KO or submission here. | |||||
| Luana Santos | 8300 | Juliana Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | +380 |
| I was really disappointed by Miller on her last outing and from the tape I've seen on Santos I don't expect Miller to find success in this matchup either. Both are a liability on the feet, but Santos looks to be a little slicker in the grappling exchanges and a little stronger wrestling. This is probably a close fight, but if it ends up being one-way traffic, I think it's Santos driving the truck. | |||||
| AJ Dobson | 7800 | Tafon Nchukwi | Risky | +120 | +215 |
| Dobson should be able to score some takedowns here and score well even in a decision, and Tafon looked career worst in a matchup against Carlos Ulberg last time out. Dobson is 0-2 in the UFC so far, but he's been thrown in there against some borderline top 15 competition so I'm not holding that against him for this matchup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chris Daukaus | 7300 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +225 |
| Daukaus is only +145 for $7300 so he'll be popular. If he used his wrestling, he could neutralize Rountree's striking advantage and a win would probably get him into the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Polyana Viana | 7500 | Iasmin Lucindo | Somewhat-Risky | +164 | +250 |
| Normally female fighters aren't reliant on the finish, but Viana's odds in this matchup indicate she is. Only +250 to win ITD is extremely high for an underdog in a woman's MMA fight, and I think Viana is going to go under owned in this spot. I'll have her in about 15-20% of my lineups hoping that she pulls off a hail Mary submission. | |||||
| Juliana Miller | 7900 | Luana Santos | Risky | +124 | +350 |
| Miller really disappointed people last time out as a massive favorite and it really shows in the odds here. Miller is the rightful underdog in my eyes, but she does attempt a ton of submissions so she's going to be live for a big score if one of them sticks. I won't be dedicating too much of my lineup to a fighter who needs a submission when their ITD is +350, but she does have a high ceiling for a score if one of her submissions stick in Round 1. | |||||
| Jose Johnson | 7600 | Da'Mon Blackshear | Risky | +215 | +330 |
| Johnson has terrible takedown defense, but his ability to get back up is pretty good. Blackshear isn't always looking to wrestle so if this fight stays standing it is going to be greasy decision. | |||||
| Isaac Dulgarian | 7700 | Francis Marshall | Risky | +140 | +250 |
| Dulgarian is strong and has decent wrestling, but all of his fights have ended within the first 6 minutes, so I don't think he'll do well if the fight gets prolonged. With that said at only $7700, he has the high upside that you need to win a GPP. I 'll have him in about 20-25% of my lineups. | |||||
| Josh Parisian | 7400 | Martin Buday | Risky | +164 | +380 |
| It's a heavyweight fight and it should be a sloppy one. I don't love picking Parisian in any of his matchups, but he's going to have 15 minutes to find the finish against someone like Buday. If it hits the judge’s scorecard, I will want to have Parisian in my lineups because in a decision win he could end up on the optimal. | |||||
| Cub Swanson | 7200 | Hakeem Dawodu | Risky | +185 | +500 |
| I don't love this matchup for Swanson, but Dawodu looked like damaged goods last time out and if he shows up in that shape again, he could be caught by the crafty veteran. He probably comes in around 15% owned so if you want to take a shot on an underdog, this one comes with really low ownership and decent odds to actually win the fight. | |||||
| Mike Breeden | 7000 | Terrance McKinney | Risky | +240 | +300 |
| McKinney is a kill-or-be-killed fighter and while I think McKinney in Round 1 is the likely outcome, there is a chance that Breeden survives and turns the tide of the fight in the second half. Breeden has been in a bunch of wars and survived to see the judges’ scorecards, so I have no issues backing a dog with a decent chance to win inside the distance against the fighter who is projected to be the highest owned outside of the main event. | |||||
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos Live Underdog Predictions
- Vincente Luque +100
- Chris Daukaus +145
- AJ Dobson +120
- Josh Parisian +164
- Cub Swanson +185
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos Picks and Stats
Vicente Luque | vs | Rafael Dos Anjos |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 21-9-1 | Record | Record: 32-14-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 11 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
Cub Swanson | vs | Hakeem Dawodu |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 28-13-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-1 |
13 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
+185 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. | vs | Chris Daukaus |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-6-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Polyana Viana | vs | Iasmin Lucindo |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
+164 | Vegas Odds | -198 |
AJ Dobson | vs | Tafon Nchukwi |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 6-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
0 | ||
Josh Fremd | vs | Jamie Pickett |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-355 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
JP Buys | vs | Marcus McGhee |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -355 |
Terrance McKinney | vs | Mike Breeden |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-278 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Francis Marshall | vs | Isaac Dulgarian |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Josh Parisian | vs | Martin Buday |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
+164 | Vegas Odds | -198 |
Jaqueline Amorim | vs | Montserrat Conejo |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Da'Mon Blackshear | vs | Jose Johnson |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
-265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy & join our FREE Discord!