MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night - Kattar vs Allen: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night Kattar vs Allen kicks off with the prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00 PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook
UFC Fight Night Kattar vs Allen
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Calvin Kattar vs Arnold Allen | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: High | -105/ -115 | +330/+240 |
This week's Main Event looks to be an exciting one as both fighters will look to keep it standing and use their stand-up game to secure a victory. Kattar is going to look to pressure more and land higher volume while Allen is going to be looking to counter and land the heavier shots. If anyone in this fight is going to use their wrestling game I'm going to be leaning toward Allen. I think Kattar comes out on top and wins a high-volume decision or finds a knockout in the later rounds. This fight should be stacked up in cash games with Vegas favoring it to go to decision, both fighters should be scoring 50+ points if it reaches the judges’ scorecards. For GPPs I'll be leaning towards Kattar since I favor him to win, but both are playable since they likely score 100+ in a victory and come at a reasonable price. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Christian Rodriguez | 9400 | Joshua Weems | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | +100 |
Rodriguez gave a good showing of himself last time out against Pearce and this is a major step down in competition here. Rodriguez has a massive striking advantage here so as long as he keeps it standing, he wins. Weems has lost twice in his professional career, both by knockout so his durability is a big red flag. I think Rodriguez gets it done here and I'll be locking him in for cash games. For GPPs I'll be splitting him in lineups only because his salary is so high on a slate with some really low-quality dogs at the bottom. | |||||
Chase Hooper | 9200 | Steve Garcia | Somewhat-Safe | -295 | -110 |
Chase Hooper takes a lot of hate for his early days in the UFC, but he looks to finally be filling out his frame at 23 years old and looked career best in his last fight. Hooper's path to victory almost ensures him a good score in a win since he likely gets a ton of control time, and multiple takedowns, and he has been more willing to throw strikes on the ground as well. Garcia was KO'd in his last fight and was dropped twice in his fight before that, so his chin is definitely a question mark. Hooper has shown great durability in his fights, which makes him safer than other high-priced fighters since he will have 15 minutes to get the job done in this matchup. Hooper R2 Submission is my pick. | |||||
Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 8900 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | +140 |
Rogerio de Lima comes out with a ton of pressure and volume in Round 1 and almost always finds the finish or banks the round for himself. After Round 1 things could get greasy since his cardio has always been a major red flag for him, and Arlovski just keeps on coming if you don't get him out. I'm going to be overweight to the field in my GPPs on Rogerio de Lima since a victory likely means a finish early, but I'm fully prepared to light those lineups on fire if the fight gets past 5 minutes. | |||||
Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 9000 | Jared Vanderaa | Moderate | -195 | -115 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has jumped around a few disciplines of fighter having spent time as a boxer before transitioning to MMA. He has the striking advantage and throws a lot of volume for a heavyweight so Vanderaa will eventually succumb to the pressure. If Vanderaa tries to hold Waldo up against the cage and tries for takedowns he might have some success, but Vanderaa is one of those fighters who always seems to make the fight harder for himself by keeping it where his opponent wants it, he could have done the exact same thing in his last fight and chose to strike with another former boxer. | |||||
Junyong Park | 9300 | Joseph Holmes | Moderate | -225 | +200 |
The Iron Turtle is well-rounded in his skill set so he could look to strike or wrestle in this spot. Out of all of the top-priced fighters, he is least likely to find a finish, so I don't expect him to get much ownership in this spot. He makes for a good pivot play off of Rodriguez so if you need a low-owned piece for your tournament teams that has a good chance to win, he makes sense. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Max Griffin | 8800 | Tim Means | Moderate | -190 | +215 |
Griffin goes against a craft vet in Means, but Griffin should have an advantage once the fight hits the mat. He doesn't always use his wrestling, but he has good fight IQ and looks to get the fight to where his opponent is least comfortable. Griffin is the much more durable fighter with his only KO loss in the UFC coming 6 years ago against Colby Covington. I think he makes for a better cash play than a tournament, but he can be used in both formats. | |||||
Josh Fremd | 8700 | Tresean Gore | Moderate | -155 | +165 |
Fremd is big for the weight class standing at 6'4 and showed in his first fight that he has the cardio to go 15 hard minutes even while pushing a grueling wrestling pace against Fluffy Hernandez. Gore is a low-volume power striker, and Fremd's pace will eventually get to Gore. As long as he avoids the early power, I think Fremd can coast, especially on the ground, the later the fight goes. I'll be above weight on Fremd in this spot as I think Gore's power gets him more ownership than he deserves. | |||||
Phil Hawes | 8400 | Roman Dolidze | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +150 |
Hawes has shown he can score well by volume of strikes, takedowns, or by KO on DraftKings so I expect him to be fairly popular. As long as his defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to outpoint Dolidze since Roman throws almost no volume. I think Hawes finds the KO | |||||
Carlos Mota | 8500 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +120 |
Mota is coming in on short notice against Durden, but he has shown he has the skills to belong in the UFC. Mota mixes in his wrestling well, but I think he tries to keep this fight standing as Durden looks for takedowns. With short-notice replacements, I never want to be too heavily exposed to them, but Mota is interesting because for $8500 he has a better inside-the-distance line than $9300 Park and every other fighter under $9000. Durden has never been KO'd but has been rocked in fights before so the KO is possible, but I think the line for it is a little higher than it should be. Mota can be played in both cash and GPPs, but because of his inside-the-distance line make sure you mix at least one lower-owned fighter into your tournament lineups since he likely becomes the chalk. | |||||
Dustin Jacoby | 8300 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +120 |
Jacoby is the more experienced kickboxer and should be able to outpoint Rountree to a decision. I don't love this play for DraftKings because Jacoby will likely look to avoid Rountree's power by staying to the outside which could lead to a low-volume decision. I'll take a shot here by avoiding an $8300 -170 favorite and hoping I can get higher scores elsewhere. | |||||
Khalil Rountree Jr. | 7900 | Dustin Jacoby | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +275 |
Rountree has more explosive techniques than Jacoby and for $400 I would rather take the shot that he lands a big one. Jacoby has been durable, so the KO isn't the likely outcome, but of the two fighters I think it’s more likely to see Rountree end up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
Cody Durden | 7700 | Carlos Mota | Risky | +145 | +330 |
Durden is going to try to get the fight to the ground as he does in almost all of his fights. With Mota coming in on short notice I wouldn't put it past him to not be ready to go a full 15 minutes, especially on the ground. Durden is live in all formats, but I wouldn't call him a cash game staple. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Joseph Holmes | 6900 | Junyong Park | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +380 |
Holmes's price and odds are way off for this card. I don't think he finds a finish against Park, but I do expect the fight to be closely contested and to go to a decision so even in a loss he shouldn't crush your lineup. With the odds value, he won't be a sneaky play so look elsewhere if you are trying to avoid a heavily owned underdog. | |||||
Tresean Gore | 7500 | Josh Fremd | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +250 |
Gore has KO power but doesn't have much else. I don't see him scoring more than 25 DraftKings points even if the fight does go to a decision so unless he finds the early KO, I'm expecting any of my lineups with Gore to be dust. Not including his fights on "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show he is only 3-2 as a professional so he is still very green. He has been highly owned in both of his fights in the UFC so far so people may have soured on him, but with the line movement moving him from +155 a week ago to +135 today I could be wrong. Gore also expressed in interviews that his mother was going through issues with Diabetes and needed to get her foot amputated so I'm not sure where his mental state is going into this fight. I'll be rooting for him with my heart, but I'm going to be leaning Fremd with my money. | |||||
Tim Means | 7400 | Max Griffin | Risky | +160 | +400 |
Means has some power and throws a lot of volume on the feet but I think he is in over his head here. Griffin should be able to wrestle and get takedowns if he wants to and I think that’s the path he chooses in this fight. Means is in play in tournaments because if he does find a win on Saturday night, he likely scores well enough to be in contention to be in the optimal lineup. | |||||
Andrei Arlovski | 7300 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Risky | +205 | +750 |
Arlovski is live once the fight gets past Round 1, but I expect the first round to be one-way traffic. If he gets out of round 1, I expect Round 2 to be competitive and Round 3 to be all Arlovski, so it’s a toss-up if it gets that far. I've heard other analysts saying Arlovski is going to get ownership, but I don't see it and don't expect it. I won't be playing him because his likely path to victory is a 60 pt decision and that isn't enough for me to trust him to get out of Round 1. | |||||
Jared Vanderaa | 7200 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Risky | +165 | +350 |
"The Mountain" has some of the worst fight IQ in the UFC so don't trust him to go out there and attempt to wrestle with a former boxer. He throws a lot of volume forHoopers a heavyweight so if he does win it might be enough to get him on the optimal lineup and Waldo Cortes-Acosta isn't a known commodity so flukier things have happened. If you end up with $7300 left for your lineup and want the upside play, I'm taking a shot on Vanderaa over Arlovski but fully expecting to be yelling at my TV the whole time the fight is on. | |||||
Steve Garcia | 7000 | Chase Hooper | Risky | +245 | +450 |
Garcia hasn't been impressive on the feet or on the ground, so Hooper probably rolls here, but with that said his striking is probably better than Hooper's. Hooper is willing to stand for only as long as he needs to get into range to threaten takedowns so I don't expect this fight to be at range for long but if it does become a striking battle Garcia could edge it out. | |||||
Joshua Weems | 6800 | Christian Rodriguez | Risky | +310 | +500 |
Nearly all of Weem's fights on the regional scene have one of two outcomes, he either finds a submission or he gets KO'd. I think he gets KO'd here, but Rodriguez was controlled in his debut vs Pearce and also was controlled for long stretches in his DWCS fight that earned him his way into the UFC. I won't be having any Weems in my lineups but if he does find a way to get it done it's likely by submission and he makes it onto the optimal lineup. |
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Rountree, Holmes, Gore, Means
Stats and Picks
Calvin Kattar | vs | Arnold Allen |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 23-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-1-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Tim Means | vs | Max Griffin |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 32-13-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-9-0 |
19 | Knockouts | 9 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta | vs | Jared Vanderaa |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
Josh Fremd | vs | Tresean Gore |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 4-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Dustin Jacoby | vs | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 18-5-1 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
0 | ||
Phil Hawes | vs | Roman Dolidze |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Andrei Arlovski | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 34-20-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 19-9-1 |
17 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
+205 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
Joseph Holmes | vs | Junyong Park |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Chase Hooper | vs | Steve Garcia |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 11-2-1 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 9 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
-295 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
Cody Durden | vs | Carlos Mota |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 13-4-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Christian Rodriguez | vs | Joshua Weems |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
-380 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
PrizePicks Props
Allen O 0.5 Takedowns
Jacoby U 92.5 Fantasy Points
Rogerio de Lima U14.75 Minutes of Fight Time
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