MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 live from Las Vegas Nevada kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+. Valentina Shevchenko looks to reclaim her title against Alexa Grasso in the Women's Flyweight division in what should be an exciting matchup between two of the best strikers in all of women's MMA. The co-main event features one of the best trash talkers in MMA in Kevin Holland against up-and-coming prospect Jack Della Maddalena in another action-packed fight.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for Noche UFC: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko | 7700/8500 | - | Stackability: Low | 145/-170 | 330./250. |
| Noche UFC is headlined by a rematch for the 125 lb. Woman title in a fight that saw Valentina Shevchenko lose her belt that she had held since 2018. Shevchenko was -900 in her last outing against Grasso but comes in as a reasonably sized favorite in this rematch. Valentina scored over 80 in her loss to Grasso so she has shown the ability in this matchup to score extremely well and at $8500 she could easily pay off the price. Valentina showed in the last matchup that if she gets the fight to the ground in top control, she makes it very hard for Grasso to get back to her feet and I expect her to use that game plan here as well. Grasso is a fast boxer, and she showed last time out that if given the chance she can quickly lock up submissions. I'm going to have someone from this matchup in all of my lineups, and you can stack this fight up if you play cash games as it likely goes to decision. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Charlie Campbell | 9300 | Alex Reyes | Somewhat-Safe | -455 | -275 |
| There are a lot of huge favorites this week, and for that reason I'm taking one of the more reasonably priced plays in Campbell. Campbell has the power to end this fight early, and while he lost in his Contender Series fight against Chris Duncan, he did hurt Duncan in that fight, and Duncan has shown that he belongs in the UFC after reeling off a couple of wins. The main reason for Campbell being this big of a favorite his that Alex Reyes hasn't fought in the last six years. Reyes owns a gym, so I expect him to show up in shape, but the last time we saw him he was getting knocked out in a minute against Mike Perry and I think this fight goes pretty similarly. | |||||
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 9600 | Terrence Mitchell | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -450 |
| The UFC has a lot of promotions behind Rosas Jr and last time out they gave him a little bit too much too quickly, so they decided to take a step back here. Rosas is a monster on the ground but last time out he ran into some issues once the fight got to the second round, but I don't expect that to be an issue here. Mitchell has had most of his success on the ground with all of his wins coming by submission since 2015. If this fight is going to be a submission battle, Rosas should be able to control this fight for as long as it lasts. Rosas will need to score a ton of points to reach the optimal lineup, so he needs to get this done in the first minute or extend this towards the end of the first round for him to do enough to outscore the others in this price range. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 9400 | Elise Reed | Somewhat-Safe | -440 | 140. |
| I'm starting this off by saying I absolutely hate Loopy Godinez's fights because you can't figure out when she is going to use her wrestling, but she should use it here. Reed has been taken down in every one of her fights and is strictly a striker, so Godinez has a huge advantage on the ground. At her best we've seen Loopy put up as many as 8 takedowns in a fight, at her worst she has completely ignored her wrestling when she should use it like in her fight with Angela Hill. I don't trust her, but she has the fighting style, and volume on the feet as well to score extremely well by decision or finish. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 9100 | Josh Fremd | Moderate | -345 | -125 |
| Kopylov has been on a great streak as of late with a couple of head kick KOs, while Fremd has not looked good even in his wins. Kopylov is the much better striker and I expect it to be all one-way traffic if Fremd can't get this to the clinch or to the ground. Kopylov can't get to the optimal lineup on volume alone, so he'll need the finish to get there but with that being lined at -125 it's likely he finds the KO, likely in Round 2/3. | |||||
| Josefine Knutsson | 9500 | Marnic Mann | Moderate | -600 | 140. |
| Knutsson is the better fighter here, but I don't think she does enough to score well. She has the worst Inside the Distance line of the high-priced fighters, but it is still only +140 which isn't a bad line. If you want to play a contrarian play in tournaments, she should be the lowest owned fighter in this range and at +140 inside the distance she does have a reasonable chance at ending this fight inside the distance. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edgar Chairez | 8700 | Daniel da Silva Lacerda | Moderate | -258 | -154 |
| Chairez has the best dance partner on the slate. Lacerda is kill or be killed and hasn't seen the third round in any of his UFC fights. Chairez is probably the highest owned fighter outside of the main event, but this is a warning to not be all in on him if you are making multiple lineups. Chairez is 0-2 in the UFC and while Lacerda is 0-4, Lacerda has knocked down his last two opponents, so he has power. The winner of this fight hits the likely hits the optimal lineup, so Chairez has to be the highest ranked fighter in this range at -258, but just be prepared that Lacerda is a tough out for the first few minutes. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 7900 | Jack Della Maddalena | Moderate | 124 | 250. |
| It's weird to put a dog as the second pick in the mid-range but I really like Holland this week. JDM should be about 40% owned so we get a reasonably priced underdog against a chalky favorite, and we get a huge reach advantage in Holland. Since Holland's move to 170lbs he's undefeated outside of his fight against Stephen Thompson where he decided, he wasn't going to wrestle because he wanted to test himself against Wonderboy's striking. Holland likely wins a decision here, staying out at distance and dictating the fight with his jab. | |||||
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 8000 | Tracy Cortez | Somewhat-Risky | 100 | 600. |
| Jasmine isn't a great striker, but she is big and longs for this division so at range I think she is the better fighter. I don't think either fighter finds the finish in this matchup, but Jasmine should be able to control this fighter either on the ground or against the cage. This is the type of fight I would normally look to fade since neither fighter is likely to get the finish, but at its price you may need the winner in GPPs this week strictly on the salary relief. | |||||
| Daniel Zellhuber | 8800 | Christos Giagos | Somewhat-Risky | -278 | 130. |
| Zellhuber has had an up and down career in the UFC so far, but at only 24 years old that is to be expected. Zellhuber is the better boxer so look for Giagos to try to get this fight to the ground early, but Giagos has shown if he can't control the fight, he normally ends up getting finished at some point. In Giagos’ defense, the fighters who finished him are all highly ranked in their division (Gilbert Burns, Charles Oliviera, Thiago Moises, Arman Tsarukyan). I'm going with Zellhuber to find the late KO or win a decision. | |||||
| Fernando Padilla | 8900 | Kyle Nelson | Somewhat-Risky | -250 | -110 |
| Kyle Nelson has a history of slowing fights down to a snail’s pace by holding his opponents against the cage and that's why I have Padilla ranked down here. Padilla has never been KO'd, never been submitted and 13 of his 15 wins have been by KO or Sub so if anyone in this fight hits the optimal lineup it is likely Padilla. Padilla should have more success the later the fight goes so I'm banking on him to win by R3 KO. | |||||
| Jack Della Maddalena | 8300 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | 150. |
| JDM is a good striker in his own right, but if he wants to win this fight, he needs to get Holland to the ground which I'm not sure he'll be able to do. He'll have to run into the fire since he's giving up 8 inches in reach to win this fight, so this is a unique matchup compared to other opponents he has fought. I'm likely fading JDM in my lineups as I respect Holland's durability but there are plenty of people who hold a different opinion than I do so I expect him to come in between 30%-40% owned. | |||||
| Tracy Cortez | 8200 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Risky | -120 | 600. |
| At some point I really thought Cortez would be a top prospect in the division, but she has been let down her last couple of fights. She should throw more volume than Jasudavicius, and this should be a back-and-forth fight, but I think Jasmine is the better grappler and that will be the decision factor in this fight. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Daniel da Silva Lacerda | 7500 | Edgar Chairez | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +250 |
| He has the highest ceiling of any underdog, and his aggressiveness is off the charts so expect him to come out extremely hot to start the fight. Lacerda has three knockdowns in his last two fights, but he hasn't been able to find the finish but eventually those knockdowns have to lead to a finish. 10 of his 11 career wins have been in the first round, and he's never seen a third round in any win or loss so whoever wins this fight is scoring well. | |||||
| Christos Giagos | 7400 | Daniel Zellhuber | Somewhat-Risky | 225 | 300. |
| Giagos takes down almost all of his opponents, so I expect him to use his wrestling and have some success at some point during this fight. Zellhuber is the more talented striker so if he can't get it down to the ground or at least control it along the cage, he is probably going to get pieced up at range. | |||||
| Kyle Nelson | 7300 | Fernando Padilla | Risky | 205 | 300. |
| Nelson is strong and has some power but in terms of technical striking he is way behind Padilla. Padilla has acknowledged in interviews this week that he has trained with Nelson's last opponent Blake Bilder and noted that Bilder is very strong so for Nelson to be able to control him shows just how strong he is, so I'm expecting Padilla to try to stay away from Nelson as much as he can. Nelson has the wrestling and control upside that we like in underdogs, and he needs to make this a dirty fight if he wants to have any chance against Padilla. | |||||
| Josh Fremd | 7100 | Roman Kopylov | Risky | 275 | 450. |
| Fremd came into the UFC and looked like he may be a top 15 contender but even in his last couple of wins I think his stock has declined. He isn't a good enough striker to stand and trade with Kopylov, and his wrestling likely isn't good enough to get this fight to the ground. If the fight does hit the ground Fremd is the bigger fighter in this matchup and the more talented submission specialist. | |||||
| Marnic Mann | 6700 | Josefine Knutsson | Risky | 440 | 900. |
| Mann likes to try to wrestle, but she is giving up a lot in this matchup in striking. I don't think either Woman finds the finish but at her price she should hit the optimal lineup even in a decision. There are a ton of huge dogs on the card, and with this fight being most likely to get to decision she could win a close decision if she has any success wrestling so she's one of the few massive underdogs that I won't be fading. | |||||
| Alex Reyes | 6900 | Charlie Campbell | Risky | 350 | 600. |
| Reyes was always a kill or be killed fighter, but with a six-year layoff he is fighting an uphill battle here. Campbell has been KO'd recently so maybe he can sneak a shot through and drop him, but it's tough to ask someone with that much ring rust to come in and try to stand in front of someone as talented and aggressive as Campbell. I'll likely be fading Reyes this week. | |||||
| Terrence Mitchell | 6600 | Raul Rosas Jr. | Risky | 525 | 800. |
| Mitchell is getting thrown to the wolves this week, having not won a fight by anything but submission since 2015 but that path to victory is likely out the window in this matchup. I don't think he has the submission skills to hang around on the ground with Rosas, if he keeps it standing Rosas is still young and he could have some success but with one takedown this fight might be over. | |||||
| Elise Reed | 6800 | Loopy Godinez | Risky | 340 | +1,200 |
| Reed is a striker who struggles with wrestlers, but even if these stays standing, I don't think she's the better fighter. I'll be fading Reed as her style just doesn't match up well against Loopy. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Holland, Grasso, Giagos, Lacerda, Nelson, Jasudavicius
Picks and Stats
Alexa Grasso | vs | Valentina Shevchenko |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 23-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 7 |
145 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Jack Della Maddalena |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 25-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 2 |
124 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Raul Rosas Jr. | vs | Terrence Mitchell |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
-750 | Vegas Odds | 525 |
Daniel Zellhuber | vs | Christos Giagos |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 20-10-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-278 | Vegas Odds | 225 |
Fernando Padilla | vs | Kyle Nelson |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 4 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 205 |
0 | ||
Loopy Godinez | vs | Elise Reed |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-440 | Vegas Odds | 340 |
Roman Kopylov | vs | Josh Fremd |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-345 | Vegas Odds | 275 |
Edgar Chairez | vs | Daniel Lacerda |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-258 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Tracy Cortez | vs | Jasmine Jasudavicius |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
Alex Reyes | vs | Charlie Campbell |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
350 | Vegas Odds | -455 |
Josefine Knutsson | vs | Marnic Mann |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | 440 |
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